Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 4

Near Term [Until 6 Pm This Evening]...

At Upper Levels, The Northern Portion Of The Eastern N. American
Trough Is Progressing Eastward, While Considerable Energy In The
Southwestern Portion Of The Trough Is Lagging Behind. The Most
Significant Piece Of Energy Is Cutting Off Over New Mexico. Another
Short Wave Is Moving Ashore Into The Pacific Nw. Water Vapor Imagery Continues To Show Upper Level Moisture Being Pulled Northeastward By The Subtropical Branch Of The Jet.

However, The Core Of This Jet Has Moved Off The Mid Atlantic Coast And The Trailing Portions Has Lifted Northward Cutting Off Large Scale Upward Motion Across The Southeast.

This Has Resulted In The Cessation Of Most Precipitation Across The Forecast Area, Although A Few Sprinkles May Still Be Occurring Over The Northeast Gulf And Near The Lower Suwannee River.
The Lower Levels Continue To Dry With Light Caa Ongoing Across Most Of The Forecast Area.

Our First Concern Is The Freeze Warning For Our Northwestern Zones.

08z Temps Were At Or Below Freezing Just Northwest Of The Area At Troy And Evergreen, Al. Current Trends Could Still Support Marginal Freeze Warning Criteria (About 2 Hours Of 30-32 Degrees In The Warning Area, So Our Initial Thought Is To Leave The Warning In
Place.

After A Somewhat Chilly Start, Temps Will Rise To Higher Levels Than Yesterday Due To Much More Sunshine Making It Through
Mainly Upper Level Clouds.

Highs Will Still Be Below Normal, But Only Be A Few Degrees.

Short Term [6 Pm This Evening Through Saturday]...

By This Evening, The Developing Upper Low Will Be Deepening Over The Tx Panhandle. This Will Eventually Get Kicked Northeastward As The Pacific Nw Energy Dives Southeastward To Meet It. Additional
Impulses Will Move Northeast Across The Gulf Of Mexico In The
Southwesterly Upper Level Flow.

This Flow Will Increase Once Again Later In The Weekend As Additional The Jet Dips Back Into The Southeast. The Resultant Dpva And Upper Divergence Will Generate Large Scale Ascent Once Again North Of The Stalled Frontal Boundary To Our South. With Some Very Weak Isentropic Ascent Also Noted.

Pops Will Return To The Forecast On Saturday And Will Mainly Be In The Chance Category, Highest South And Lowest North.

The Pop Gradient Will Be Maintained Saturday Night And Sunday. Highest Pops Come Sunday, As High As Likely For The Fl Big Bend.

Temps Will Gradually Moderate.

Friday Night Will See Inland Temps Of 35-40 Degrees.

Highs Saturday And Sunday Will Be Close To Normal, Bu Just Shy.

Increasing Cloud Cover Will Keep Saturday Night Temps Milder, Generally In The 40s.

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Although There Are Still Some Differences, The Latest 00z Euro
Solution Is Now In Better Agreement With The 00z Gfs. Will Follow
Close To The Gfs But Will Hold Pops Down In The Chance Category For Now.

The Gfs Is Very Progressive Showing Deep Layer Ridging At The
Beginning Of The Period Exiting To Our East As A Highly Amplified
Trough Across The Nations Midsection Continues To Dig And Move Into The Eastern Third Of The Conus On Wednesday.

At The Surface, Rain Overspreads The Local Region Tuesday And Tuesday Night Due To Isentropic Accent Associated With A Warm Front Lifting Out Of The Gulf.

This Will Be Followed By Scattered To Numerous Showers And
Possible Thunderstorms On Wednesday As The Cold Front Approaches And Pushes Through The Cwa.

Dry Conditions Are Forecast To Return By The End Of Next Week.

Temperatures Will Be Near Seasonal Levels Through Monday Night And Then Near To Above Normal Through The Rest Of The Week.

Aviation...[Through 06z Saturday]

Vfr Conditions Expected At All Terminals Trough The Taf Cycle. Winds Will Be Light From The North Today.

Marine...

Winds Over The Marine Area Are Still In The Exercise Caution Range
And The Headline Will Be Maintained For One More Cycle.

Winds Will Drop Below Criteria During The Late Morning Hours And Will Remain So Through The Weekend, Only Returning To 15 Knots Tonight.

Winds Will Pick Up Once Again Sunday Evening And Remain Elevated At Cautionary Levels, With Brief Periods Of Advisory Winds, Through Tuesday.

Fire Weather...

No Fire Weather Concerns Are Expected For The Next Several Days.

Hydrology...

The Shoal River Near Crestview Will Crest Just Above Action Stage
This Afternoon.

Recent Rainfall Averaged About A Quarter Of An Inch Which Is Light Enough To Prevent Any Significant Rises On Area Rivers.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 60 37 62 46 60 / 0 0 30 50 50
Panama City 61 42 61 48 60 / 0 0 40 50 40
Dothan 58 37 58 43 59 / 0 0 30 40 20
Albany 57 35 59 42 59 / 0 0 20 30 30
Valdosta 59 36 61 45 58 / 0 0 30 50 50
Cross City 65 40 64 51 63 / 10 10 40 60 60
Apalachicola 60 42 61 48 60 / 0 0 40 50 50

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.

Ga...Freeze Warning Until 9 Am Est This Morning For Calhoun-Clay-
Dougherty-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Worth.

Al...Freeze Warning Until 8 Am Cst This Morning For Coffee-Dale-
Henry.

Gm...None.


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