Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 29

Near Term [Tonight]...

The Local Area Resides On The Western Periphery Of Deep Layer
Ridging This Afternoon. Subsidence Aloft Results In A Dry Atmosphere Above 700mb As Seen In This Mornings Sounding, And In Recent Wv Imagery. Southerly Flow Has Transported Moisture Across The Tri-State Region And Allowed For The Development And Persistence Of Scattered Cloud Cover Through The Day. Patchy Dense Marine Fog Is Also Found Along The Big Bend Coastline And Is Spreading Ever So Slightly Inland. Expect The Fog Bank To Continue Its Gradual Westward Push, Most Likely Lifting To Low Ceilings As It Moves Inland.

The Deep Layer Ridging Has Also Allowed Temperatures To Warm
Into The 80s Where Cloud Cover Was Able To Scatter Early On.
Elsewhere, Above Average Temperatures Continue, With Upper 70s
Across Se Alabama And The Panhandle Of Florida.

Tonight, Another Round Of Light Isentropic Rain Can Be Expected,
Primarily Across The Florida Panhandle And On Into Se Alabama. In
These Areas, Expect Low Clouds And Fog To Be The Worse (With Low Clouds Dominating). To The East, Scattered Low Clouds Are Expected With Only Patchy Fog Through Dawn. The Cloud Cover And Rain Will Keep Temperatures Moderated Overnight In The Lower To Middle 60s Area Wide.

Short Term [Wednesday Through Friday]...

The Main Emphasis For This Period Will Be The Potential For
Damaging Wind Gusts On Wednesday.

The Consensus Of The Latest Nwp Guidance (Including Convection Allowing Models- Or Cam) Is Slower Than The 12 Utc Gfs, Which Means That The Deep Moist Convection Ahead Of The Cold Front Wont Be Moving Through Our Forecast Area Until During The Daytime Hours.

Although There Will Be Plenty Of Clouds, We Expect Enough Breaks In The Clouds To Cause Some Low Layer Destabilization.

The Cam Mean Sbcape Forecast Values Are Generally In The 400 To 900 J/Kg Range (West Of A Line From Albany To Tallahassee)...Not Bad For This Time Of Year. Also, Recent Cam Runs Show Less Of A Stable Near- Surface Layer Than Was Shown In Previous Runs. This...Coupled With Unusually Strong Winds Not Far Off The Surface (A 60+ Kt 850 Mb Jet!), Suggest At Least A Slight Risk Of Severe Storms.

We`ve Issued A Wind Advisory For Portions Of Our Forecast Area For Wednesday Just Because The Normal Daytime Mixing Could Bring 40-45 Mph Gusts Down To The Surface...Even Without The Aid Of Showers/Storms.

There Are, As Usual, Some Limiting Factors In Terms Of Severe
Storms.

The Most Limiting May Be The Warm Temperatures Aloft, With Mid Tropospheric Lapse Rates Of Only An Anemic 5 Deg/Km.

This Will Seriously Limit The Updraft Strength In An Important Part Of
The Atmosphere (Where Ice Normally Develops). Indeed, The Maximum Updraft Speeds Being Indicated By The 12 Utc Cam Nwp Guidance Dont Exceed 14 M/S, And Even Those Values Are Few And Far Between.

As The Spc Stated In Their Morning Convective Outlook, There May Be A Lot Of Low- Topped Convection With Little Lightning. Since There Is No Warm Front Nearby, The 0-6km Wind Profile Will Be Unusually "Straight" For This Time Of Year. This Indicates That The Storms Will Tend To Organize Along Straight Bands.

Tornadoes Are Unlikely, But We Cant Completely Rule Out A Brief,
Weak One Developing If A Favorable Mesoscale/Storm Scale Environment Develops.

Hail Is Highly Unlikely.

The Cam Consensus Has The Highest Probabilities For Strong To Severe Storms Over Our Northwest Zones, With Gusts From 40 To 60 Mph. All Of The Nwp Guidance Shows The Threat Diminishing Later Wednesday Afternoon And Evening As The Cold Front Moves East, Which Is Typical For Our Area.

Also, Recent High- Resolution Sst Data From The Gulf Of Mexico Show A Rather Broad Zone Of Cool Shelf Waters Across Much Of Apalachee Bay. As This Stable Marine Layer Gets Drawn Inland
Across The Fl Big Bend, It Should Hinder Vertical Mixing, And Help
Prevent The Strongest Wind Gusts From Reaching The Surface.

The Latest Cam Guidance Is Slow To Clear Out The Rain Behind The
Cold Front Wednesday Night, But This Seems Rather Unlikely
(Especially Compared To The Output From The Other Regional And
Global Model Guidance, As Well As Mos).

Temperatures Will Cool Considerably Behind This Cold Front, With Highs Only In The Upper 50s Thursday.

A Light Freeze Is Possible Thursday Night, But We Have Plenty Of Time To Look At This Possibility Later.

Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The Global Models Are In Good Agreement With Their Handling Of The Large Scale 500 Mb Height Field, As They Show A Progressive Pattern Through The Period.

For Most Of This Time Our Weather Will Be Dominated By High Pressure And Continental Airmasses, Interrupted Briefly By Cold Fronts Saturday Night/Early Sunday, And Next Tuesday, Though (Tuesdays Front May Be Have A Little More Moisture To Support At Least A Slight Pop).

Daytime Highs Will Be Near Climatology (Generally In The 60s). Because Of The Predominance Of Dry Air, Lows Will Be A Bit Cooler Than Average (Generally In The 30s).

Aviation...

Vfr Conditions Will Continue Through The Afternoon.

Overnight, Mvfr Ceilings Are Expected To Overspread Kecp And Kdhn. Mvfr Ceilings Will Eventually Spread Far Enough East To Impact Kaby And Ktlh.

Expect Mvfr Restrictions To Continue At Kecp And Kdhn Through The Taf, While Ktlh And Kaby Should Scatter Out In The Afternoon.

Outside Of The Threat For Severe Weather Tomorrow Afternoon, Strong Low Level Winds Are Expected To Exist At All Terminals.

Expect Winds As High As 40 Knots Below 2kft, Surely Making For A Bumpy Ride And Possibly Presenting Crosswind Issues At Sites With East-West Oriented Runways.

Marine...

Although We Expect Wind Gusts Near 40 Kt Over Land Wednesday, Gale Force Gusts Are Unlikely Because Of The Relatively Stable Marine Layer. (Bufkit Forecast Soundings From Our Local Wrf Only Show About 30 Kt Wind Gusts Wednesday).

Still, Advisory Conditions Are Likely To Develop Late Tonight Or Early Wednesday, And Continue Into Thursday Morning.

A High Surf Advisory Has Also Been Issued For Bay & Walton Counties.

Fire Weather...

Wetting Rains Are Expected Across Much Of The Area Tomorrow With A Line Of Storms Along An Advancing Cold Front.

Ahead Of The Storms, Gusty Winds Are Likely, And Could Create Problems For Fire Control Measures For Any Lingering Wildfires.

After The Front Clears The Area, A Much Drier Air Mass Will Arrive For Thursday.

Red Flag Conditions Are A Possibility In Our Florida Zones - But A Lot Will Depend On How Quickly Fuels And Erc Values Recover From Any Rain.

Hydrology...

We Expect Widespread Rain On Wednesday, With Storm Total Values
Ranging From 1.5 Inches Around Dothan To Just A Quarter Of An Inch
At Cross City.

Because The Rivers Were Well Below Action Stage, It`s Unlikely There Will Be Any Significant River Flooding Concerns.

Other Than Some Localized Flooding Wednesday (Of Low- Lying, Poor Drainage Areas), Widespread Flooding Is Not Likely Due To The Expected Progressive Nature Of This System.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 63 77 41 59 32 / 20 80 50 0 10
Panama City 65 72 44 59 37 / 40 100 20 0 10
Dothan 65 75 39 58 36 / 50 100 20 0 10
Albany 66 76 42 58 33 / 20 100 40 10 10
Valdosta 61 80 45 59 32 / 10 70 60 10 10
Cross City 59 78 48 62 31 / 10 40 50 10 10
Apalachicola 66 72 46 59 40 / 30 80 40 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Wind Advisory From 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/ To 6 Pm Est /5 Pm Cst/
Wednesday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf- Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

High Surf Advisory From 6 Am To 6 Pm Cst Wednesday For Coastal
Bay-South Walton.

Ga...

Wind Advisory From 9 Am To 6 Pm Est Wednesday For Baker-Ben
Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady- Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole- Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...

Wind Advisory From 8 Am To 5 Pm Cst Wednesday For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory From 5 Am Wednesday To 1 Pm Est Thursday
For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To
Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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