Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Low Level Winds Will Continue Out Of The Southeast Overnight.
With Southwesterly Flow Above This Layer Generating Weak Isentropic Lift, Will Continue To See Plenty Of Low/Mid Clouds Stream Into The Area Overnight. These Low Clouds Should Prevent Widespread Dense Fog Overnight. However, Areas Of Fog Will Still Be Possible, Especially Closer To The Coast. While The Isentropic Lift Should Remain Relatively Weak, A Few Sprinkles Cannot Be Ruled Out Along The Coast.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The Main Focus In The Short Term Period Is On The Upcoming System On Wednesday And The Potential For Strong To Severe Storms.
As Is Typical In The Lead-Up To Most Potential Severe Weather Scenarios, There Are Some Favorable And Unfavorable Elements In This Case.
On The Favorable Side, The Forecast Area Will Reside In The Right-
Entrance Region Of A Strong Upper Level Jet Streak, Which Will
Promote Large Scale Lift. In Addition, The Low Level Wind Field
And Shear Are Still Forecast To Be Fairly Strong, Although The
Consensus Is A Little Weaker Than Yesterdays Runs. 0-1 Km Shear
Values Are Generally Forecast To Be Near 30 Knots, And 0-6 Km
Shear Values Are Generally Forecast To Be Near 50 Knots In The
Warm Sector. Running Some Customized Sref Probabilities For A
Typical Low Cape/High Shear Scenario In This Part Of The Country
(Sbcape > 250 J/Kg, 0-1 Km Shear > 30 Knots, 0-6 Km Shear > 50
Knots, Mllcl < 750 M, And Qpf > 0.01") Yields Around A 20% Chance
Of This Favorable Scenario Occurring Across The Western Portions
Of The Forecast Area With Decreasing Probabilities Farther
Eastwards. This Is In Reasonable Agreement With The Spc 15% Day 3 Slight Risk Across The Area. There Is Also At Least Some Modest
Low Level Cape Noted In Some Of The Forecast Soundings Viewed In Bufkit Across The Area, With 0-3 Km Cape Values Possibly Around
On The Unfavorable Side Of The Forecast Scenario, The Model Trend
Is Slightly Less Impressive Than Yesterday Locally, And Mid-Level Lapse Rates Are Generally Poor. In Addition, There Are Hints Of A Very Shallow But Noted Stable Layer In Some Of The Forecast
Soundings Viewed In Bufkit.
When The Other Parameters Are Favorable, This Stable Layer Can Often Make Or Break An Event Locally Depending On Whether Or Not It Is Present. Unfortunately, The Models Have A Hard Time Forecasting Such Minute Details With A High Degree Of Accuracy.
We Are Still Too Far Away From The Potential Event To Be In The
Range Of Most Of The Hi-Res Guidance, Although Our 06z Local Arw
Run Valid At 60 Hours Did Bring A Squall Line Into The Western
Forecast Area During The Early Afternoon Hours On Wednesday.
The General Timing Of The Event Still Looks To Be In The Late
Morning To Early Afternoon Hours Across The Western Forecast Area,
And The Early To Late Afternoon Hours Across The Central And
Eastern Portions Of The Area.
As Hinted At By The Sref Probabilities, The Greatest Threat Of Any Severe Weather Is Expected To Be Across The Western Forecast Area. This Is Also In General Agreement With The Winter Season Severe Weather Climatology In This Forecast Area.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
An Uneventful Long Term Period Is Expected With Surface High
Pressure Remaining The Dominant Feature Locally.
Guidance Is In Good Agreement On A Dry Airmass With Near Seasonal Temperatures Through The Period, And The Official Forecast Made No Significant Deviations From The Guidance Consensus.
Aviation...[Through 18z Tuesday]
Mainly Vfr Will Hold Throughout The Day And Into This Evening.
Low Ceilings Are Expected To Return Overnight Bringing All Terminals Down To At Least Mvfr For A Period Of Time.
Persistence Was Used Bringing Only Kvld Back Down To Lifr
Winds And Seas Will Gradually Increase To Cautionary And Then
Advisory Levels Tuesday Into Wednesday As They Veer To The South
And Southwest Ahead Of A Strong Cold Front.
Winds Will Then Remain Elevated For A Short Time After The Frontal Passage Wednesday Night Before Diminishing Below Headline Criteria By Thursday Afternoon.
No Fire Weather Concerns Over The Next Few Days As A Cold Front
Brings Wetter Conditions To The Area.
Thursday Will Bring Much Drier Conditions Along With Lower Rh Values.
Most Of The Fire Weather Concerns For Later In The Week Will Be In The Florida Counties With Rh Values Expected In The Upper 20s To Lower 30s.
A Fire Weather Watch May Need To Be Issued Later In The Week.
The Upcoming System On Wednesday Is Expected To Be Progressive And Bring A General Half Inch To Inch Of Rain Across The Area.
The Highest Amounts Are Expected Across Portions Of Southeast Alabama And Adjacent Southwest Georgia And The Florida Panhandle.
The Lowest Amounts Are Expected Across The Southeast Big Bend.
Flooding Problems Are Not Currently Expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 57 77 62 76 45 / 10 10 30 80 40
Panama City 61 76 66 74 44 / 10 10 40 80 30
Dothan 58 77 65 74 41 / 10 20 50 80 30
Albany 57 79 63 75 42 / 10 20 30 90 40
Valdosta 57 80 61 81 47 / 10 20 20 60 50
Cross City 56 80 59 77 53 / 10 10 10 40 60
Apalachicola 61 72 65 74 48 / 10 10 30 80 40
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