Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 26

Near Term [Through Today]...

A Weak Cold Front Will Drop Southward Across Our Alabama And Georgia Zones Today And Stretch Out East To West Across North Florida By This Evening.

This Front Will Bring Increasing Cloudiness Along With Winds Shifting To The North In Its Wake. Otherwise, No Rain Is Expected And Despite The Cloud Cover Temperatures Will Continue Well
Above Seasonal Levels.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Tranquil And Unseasonably Mild Weather Will Continue Through This
Period As An Upper Ridge Once Again Build Over The Region.

The Front To Our North Will Lie Across Our Northern Zones This Evening And Then Dissipate Across Our Fl Zones On Sunday. Only An Isolated Shower Is Possible And We Have Capped Pops At Silent 10.

Temps Will Once Again Be The Big Story. Low Temps Will Range From The Lower To Mid 40s North To Lower 50s South Tonight. Highs On Sunday Will Reach The Mid 70s Across Most Of Our Fl Zones, But Be A Bit Cooler North Of The Front With 60s North Of A Vld-Dhn Line.

More Areas Will Warm Up On Monday With The 70-Degree Isotherm Reach Our Northern Border Areas And Most Of The Fl Zones Getting Into The Mid To Upper 70s Which Is 10-15 Degrees Above Normal.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Still Not Much Change From The Previous Fcst (Especially Through The Middle Of Next Week), As A Building Upper Level Ridge Moves In From The Western Caribbean Into The Gulf Of Mexico. This Will Result In Rising 500 Dm Heights And Warming 850 Mb Temps, Which Will Translate Into Well Above Normal Temps At The Sfc Once Again From Mon Into Wed.

High Temps Are Expected To Climb Back Into The Middle To Even
Upper 70s Over The Interior, Before A Cold Front Brings The Next
Chance Of Showers And Storms To The Region On Wed. And Possibly Into Thu. That`s Also When The Global Models Begin To Show Some Differences In The Timing And Strength Of The Cold Front, And Just How Much Of A Cool Down We Would Receive In Its Wake.

The 00 Utc Gfs Is Still The Strongest With This Front, While The 00 Utc Ecmwf Is Weakening It Significantly.

Additionally, The Euro Is Now Stalling The Front Just To Our South On Thu. (With Very Little Cooling Behind It), Before It Develops A Gulf Coast Low And Moves It Into Our Region On Friday, While The Gfs Keeps Sfc Ridging In Place.

This Increases The Fcst Uncertainty Quite A Bit For The End Of The
Extended Period, And Will Have To Monitor Future Runs Of The Euro
For Consistency If It Holds Onto This Feature, And The Gfs To See If
It Begins To Pick It Up. For This Package, Will Be Downplaying The
Ecmwf Solution With This Potential System.

Aviation [Beginning 07z Saturday]...

A Brief Period Of Mvfr Vsbys Are Possible Due To Fog In The Pre-Dawn Hours At All Taf Sites.

Otherwise, A Weak Cold Front Will Drop From North To South Across The Tri-State Region Today And Likely Bring Mvfr/Ifr Cigs To Aby And Dhn By Daybreak.

Mvfr/Vfr Cigs Will Gradually Spread To The Remaining Taf Sites Later This Morning And Afternoon. As The Front Passes Each Site, Winds Will Be Shifting To The North But Will Remain Light.


Although The Wind Direction Will Be Variable Across The Coastal
Waters During The Next Few Days With The Cold Front Approaching
From The North, Wind Speeds Will Be Light And Seas Will Be
Generally 1 To 2 Feet Through The Weekend.

East To Southeast Winds Will Increase A Bit On Monday, But No Potential Headlines Are Expected Over The Marine Area Until Mid To Late Next Week.

Onshore Flow Could Reach 15 Knots On Wednesday.

Fire Weather...

A Weak Frontal Boundary And Moist Return Flow From The Gulf Of
Mexico Is Helping To Keep Relative Humidities Above Red Flag

These Conditions Are Expected To Continue Through Much Of Next Week.


With Little To No Rain Expected, Flows Will Remain Low On Area

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 74 51 74 52 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
Panama City 73 54 72 55 74 / 10 10 0 10 10
Dothan 69 48 70 51 73 / 10 10 0 10 10
Albany 70 44 67 49 73 / 10 10 0 10 10
Valdosta 72 49 70 52 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cross City 74 51 75 52 78 / 0 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 70 54 69 54 70 / 10 10 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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