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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 25

Near Term [Today]...

A Weak Front Was Analyzed Across North Florida And Extended West
Northwestward To A Surface Low Near Dallas Early This Friday
Morning. The Low Is Forecast To Slide East Into Central Alabama By
This Evening With The Aforementioned Weak Front Lifting North Across Our Cwa.

As This Boundary Passes, Winds Will Veer To Become South And Southwest By Afternoon. All Sensible Weather With This System Is
Expected To Remain North Of The Tri-State Region. Expect Another Day With Above Seasonal Temperatures Ranging From The Upper 60s To Lower 70s.

Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The Large Scale Split Flow Longwave Pattern Commences Fairly
Amplified. This Is Highlighted In Nrn Stream By Ridge Over Wrn
States And Trough Over Ern States With Alberta Clipper Digging Sewd
From Midwest To Mid-Atlc, While Slower Srn Stream Shows Trough Over Extreme Ern Pacific Into Wrn Most States With Low Off Baja Then
Ridging Ewd To Wrn Gulf With Rather Flat Cyclonic Flow Ewd Thru Nrn Gulf Region Into Wrn Atlc.

At Surface, Upper Trough Will Induce Cyclogenesis/Low Off Nc Coast With Wavy Quasi-Stationary Front Across N Fl/S Ga Then Cold To Low Over Nrn La. Absent Upper Dynamics And All But Negligible Moisture, And With Nearly Parallel Steering Flow, Front North Of Our Our Area Continues To Weaken And Stall.

South Of Front, Strong High Well East Of Sc Coast With Ridge Swwd
Across Nrn Gulf Of Mex And Adjacent N Gulf Coast. Will Go With
20-10% N-S Rainshower Pop Gradient. With Local Area South Of Front.

Expect Inland Min Temps From Mid 40s Ern Counties To Around 50 Wrn Counties.

On Sat, Robust Shortwave Will Move East Across New England Early. This Will Serve To Keep Cold Air Well North Of Se Region As Well As Nudge The Front Swd Stalling Along Or Just Off Coast As Gulf Ridge Holds Firm.

Expect Only A Isold To Slight Chance Of Light Rain At Best Mainly Nrn Counties Where Best Lift Will Occur.

Diurnal Cooling Along With Carolina Low Moved Newd On Sat Night Will Finally Push The Moisture Starved Front Offshore Where It Gradually Washes Out.

On Sun, Next High Pressure System Builds Quickly From Great
Lakes Sewd Into Carolinas With Ridge Swd Into Local Region.

With Local Area Between Departing Front And High Dropping Swd To Our North, Local Gradients Will Tighten So Expect Some Increase In
Clouds And Possibly Winds, Especially Ern Counties.

Expect Highs Sat From Mid To Upper 60s North To Low 70s Se Big Bend Although Clouds From Front Could Result In Lower Max Readings.

In Wake Of Front Expect Cooler Offshore Flow With Lows Sat Night From Near 40 North To Mid 40s South.

Highs On Sun Dip To Low 60s North To Mid To Mid To Upper 60s South.

Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

Not Much Change From The Previous Fcst, With Just A Very Minor Cool Down Back To Climo Levels On Sunday, Before A Building Upper Level Ridge Takes A Foothold Across The Eastern Gulf Coast. This Will Result In Rising 500 Dm Heights And Warming 850 Mb Temps, Which Will Translate Into Well Above Normal Temps At The Sfc From Mon Into Wed.

High Temps Are Expected To Climb Back Into The Middle 70s Over The Interior, Before A Cold Front Brings The Next Chance Of Showers And Storms To The Region, Along With Another Cool Down Expected By The End Of The Week.

Nevertheless, With The Average Temperature At Tlh Now Standing At 59.3 Degrees (Or 8.3 Degrees Above Normal, Which Would Be Also The 6th Warmest Jan. Of All Time If It Ended Today), There Appears To Be A Strong Likelihood Of A Top 10 All Time Finish (With #10 Now At 56.9 Degrees From Jan. 2006).

Aviation [Through 00z Friday]...

Brief Periods Of Mvfr Cigs/Vsbys Will Continue Until Just After
Daybreak, Especially At Ecp, Tlh And Vld.

Otherwise, Vfr Conditions Throughout The Taf Period.

Winds Will Veer From Northeast This Morning To South And Southwest By This Afternoon As A Warm Front Lifts Across The Tri-State Region.

Marine...

1027mb High Pressure Over Ne Gulf With Ridge Wsw To Mex Coast.

Thus, Generally Light Winds And Low Seas Will Prevail Over The
Coastal Waters Into The Weekend.

Sufficient Deep Layer Ridging Sufficient To Inhibit Much Swd Movement Of Weak Front Yielding Just A Weak Cold Frontal Passage On Saturday.

This Will Result In Just A Modest Increase In Winds And Seas Behind It.

Thereafter, Front Washes Out With Remnants Lifting Back Nwd With Light To Moderate East To Southeast Flow Commencing Over The Marine Area Early Next Week.

No Headlines Are Expected At This Time Through Tuesday.

Fire Weather...

Despite Continued Dry Weather With Little Or No Chance For Rain, No Red Flag Conditions Are Expected As The Minimum Relative Humidity Will Remain Above 35% At Least Through Saturday.

Hydrology...

No Significant Rises Are Expected On Area Rivers Through The Week,
With The Next Decent Chance For Measurable Rainfall Not Until Next
Wednesday.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 71 50 73 46 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 69 55 70 51 63 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 68 53 68 41 65 / 10 20 20 0 10
Albany 68 50 68 40 65 / 10 20 10 0 10
Valdosta 69 50 71 42 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cross City 72 46 73 46 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 67 54 68 51 63 / 10 10 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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