Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 24

Near Term [Through Today]...

06z Upper Air Analysis Shows Much Of The Central U.S. Under The
Influence Of Broad Ridging, Sandwiched Between A Broadening Trough Across Much Of The Eastern U.S., And Another Trough Sprawling The Pacific Northwest Coastline.

At The Surface, The Conus Is Generally Highlighted By High Pressure. The Ridge That Covered The Eastern U.S. Yesterday Has Slid Into The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, And Is Soon To Be Replaced By Another Surface Ridge Sliding Southeast Out Of The Northern Plains.

The Upper East Coast Trough Will Begin To Flatten In Response To A
Shortwave Trough Dropping South Into The Northern Rockies, Pressing The Aforementioned Ridge South And East. Locally, This Will Result In Gradual Height Rise And A Net, Total-Column, Warming Through The Day.

Expect Temperatures At The Surface To Rise To Above Average
Readings, With Lower 70s Expected Across North Florida, And Middle
To Upper 60s Elsewhere.

The Secondary Surface Ridge Dropping South Will Push A Rather Weak Front Into The Region Late This Afternoon.

With Subsidence Aloft And Rather Limited Moisture At The Surface, Do
Not Expect Any Precip As The Front Enters Our Alabama And Georgia
Counties Today.

Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Tonight, The Large Scale Split Flow Pattern Commences In Nrn
Stream With Ridging Over Wrn States, Trough Over Cntrl Canada/Nrn
Most Plains To Wrn Great Lakes, Then Ridging Ewd To Ern Seaboard
And Trough Across Extreme Wrn Atlc Swd To Fl Straits.

Srn Stream Highlighted By Strong Ridging Over Wrn States Weakening Ewd To Ern Seaboard. A Nrn Stream Shortwave Moves From Great Lakes Into Wrn Atlc, Local Flow Becomes Nearly Zonal With Further Rising Heights Over Local Area.

At Surface, Low Well Off Mid-Atlc Region With Next And Largely Dry Cold Front Swwd Across Se Region To Low Over Ne Tx. Highs Centered Over N/Cntrl Gulf Of Mex And Another Over Great Lakes With Latter Ridging Down Into Se Region.

On Fri, The Local Airmass Will Continue To Modify.

Next Robust Shortwave Digs Sewd From Upper Ms Valley Into Oh Valley. Sw Steering Flow Will Largely Stall Front To Our North.

By Fri Eve Into Early Sat, Shortwave Reaches East Coast Generating A Weak Surface Low Se Region Allowing Second Front To Sag Slowly Swd Across Our Area.

However, With Upper Dynamics Remaining Well To The North And
Very Limited Gulf Return Flow As Reflected In Dew Points In The
Low 50s, Front Will Be Largely Moisture Starved Producing At Best
A Chance Of Light Rain Mainly Fri Eve/Night Over Mainly Nrn Zones.

In Its Wake, Wrn Atlc Trough Moves Further Ewd While Se Surface
Low Rapidly Tracks Newd To The Carolinas On Sat.

In Response Strong Mid-Upr Ridging Moves Ese Into Cntrl Conus Then Further Ewd By Eve While Upstream Cold Surface High Slides Ewd To Dominate Weather Ews From Ms Valley. Local Area Returns To Dry Nw Flow Pattern.

Will Go With Nil Pops Thru Fri Morning, Then 20-0% Nw-Se Pop
Gradient Fri Aftn, 30-10% Fri Night And 0-20% On Sat.

Lows Tonight From Upper 30s Ne Tier Of Ga Counties To Mid 40s Elsewhere, Moderating With Front On Fri Night 45 To 50 Degrees.

Highs Fri Mid 60s North To Low 70s Se Big Bend.

In Wake Of Weak Cold Sat Highs Dip To Low 60s Se Al To Low To Mid 70s Se Big Bend.

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...

Guidance Has Continued To Back Off On The Potential Surge Of
Colder Air For This Weekend.

Models Now Barely Push The Cold Front Through The Region, As The Primary Upper Energy Pushes Quickly Off To The East.

With Continuing Warming Trend In The Guidance, Have Followed Suit In The Grids And Keep Temperatures At Or Above Normal Through The Forecast Period.

The Next Chance Of Significant Rain Is Not Anticipated Until Late Tuesday Or Wednesday Next Week.

Aviation...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Through The Taf.

Calm To Light Winds This Morning Will Become Northwesterly Through Much Of The Day Before Shifting To The North And Northeast This Evening.

Scattered Low To Mid Level Clouds Are Expected To Slide South Through The Day, Though Remaining At Vfr Levels For All Sites.

Marine...

High Pressure Will Remain In Place Over The Waters Through Early
Friday With Light Winds And Minimal Seas.

A Weak Front Will Approach Friday Night And Cross The Waters On Saturday With A Modest Increase In Winds In Its Wake.

Easterly Flow Will Develop By Late In The Weekend As High Pressure Builds North Of The Region.

Exercise Caution Levels Winds Possible.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected Over The Next Several Days As
Relative Humidity Is Expected To Remain Above Critical Thresholds.

Hydrology...

No Significant Rainfall Is Expected Through The End Of The Week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 72 43 69 51 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
Panama City 69 52 69 55 67 / 10 0 10 20 10
Dothan 67 44 68 48 64 / 10 0 20 30 10
Albany 67 39 68 48 66 / 10 0 20 30 10
Valdosta 70 42 69 49 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
Cross City 72 43 72 49 73 / 0 0 10 10 20
Apalachicola 68 51 67 54 67 / 0 0 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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