Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 19

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Temps And Low Temps For This Morning Have Become Quite A Bit
Trickier, As Some Stratocu (Between 4000 And 5000ft) Has Developed Over Mainly Southern Portions Of The Cwa After Midnight. In Addition To The Sct-Bkn Clouds Over A Good Portion Of N Fl, Sfc Winds Have Remained Elevated In Some Areas And Become Calm In Others Which May Result In Min Temps Varying Quite A Bit Over Short Distances.

Therefore, Made Some Adjustments To The Hourly And Low Temps, With Any Patchy Frost Now Confined To The Northern Half Of The Cwa
(Except For Interior Walton County In The Fl Panhandle Where Temps
Are Already Near Freezing).

For The Rest Of Today, Expect The Stratocu To Gradually Dissipate
With Just Some Thin Cirrus Moving In From The Wsw In The Afternoon.

Under Plenty Of Sunshine (Slightly Filtered At Times Under The Ci),
Temperatures Will Moderate Quickly To Above Climo Levels, With Highs Expected To Reach The Mid 60s To The N And W, To The Upper 60s To Lower 70s To The S And E.

Lows Tonight Will Moderate A Bit As Well With The Sfc Ridge Continuing To Weaken, And Should Range From The Upper 30s To The Lower To Mid 40s.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Little Overall Change Is Expected In The Local Weather Through The
Short Term With High Pressure, Dry Conditions, And Near To Slightly
Above Normal Temperatures.

A Dry Cold Front Will Approach From The North Late Monday With Little Fanfare Other Than Colder Air Behind It.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Friday]...

The Latest Global Model Runs Are Consistent With Previous Runs And Each Other, Showing A Progressive Large Scale Weather Pattern Over The Conus.

The Period Begins With A High-Amplitude Long Wave Trough Over The Eastern Conus Through Wednesday Morning (And Cold Air
Advection Over Our Region), Followed By Rapid Deamplification Of
500mb Heights Late Wednesday And Thursday (With An Accompanying Warming Trend For Our Region).

Another Broad, High-Amplitude Trough Will Rapidly Develop Over The Eastern Conus On Friday.

With So Much Dry, Stable Continental Air Across The Southeast, Widespread Precipitation Appears Doubtful.

Probably The Most Significant Local Weather Impact Will Be The Possibility Of A Freeze Wednesday And Thursday Mornings.

Aviation..[Through 06z Sunday]

Vfr Conditions With Light Winds Will Prevail At The Terminals Through The Period.

However, A Few Patches Of Sct-Bkn Clouds (Between 4 And 5kft) Have Developed Over Southern Portions Of The Region Early This Morning In The Moistening Ne Flow.

Therefore, Some Potential For Periods Of Vfr Cigs At Tlh, Ecp, And Vld May Be Realized Through The Morning Hours. Thereafter, Just Some Thin Ci Is Expected To Move In From The W And Sw.

Marine...

Winds Have Been Persistent Near 20 Knots Beyond 20 Nm Offshore,
Especially At Buoy 42036.

The Small Craft Advisory Beyond 20 Nm Offshore Was Extended Slightly Until 10 Am Est This Morning.

Winds Are Expected To Decrease In The Late Morning And Afternoon With Lighter Winds Likely On Sunday And Monday As The Pressure Gradient Weakens.

By Monday Night And Tuesday, Northerly Winds And Seas Are
Expected To Increase Again As A Dry Cold Front Moves Southward
Through The Region.

Fire Weather...

Although A Few Locations In The Florida Panhandle Could Briefly Drop Below 35 Percent Relative Humidity On Sunday, Durations Are Expected To Be Very Short, And Other Critical Parameters Will Not Meet Needed Thresholds For Red Flag Conditions.

On Monday, However, Drier Air Will Begin To Move In From The Northwest, And Low Relative Humidities May Combine With High Dispersions And Ercs To Produce Possible Red Flag Conditions Over Parts Of The Florida Big Bend And Panhandle.

Hydrology...
River Stages Remain Below Action Stage, And This Is Unlikely To
Change Any Time Soon.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 68 41 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 65 47 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 64 40 68 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 65 39 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 67 41 69 42 67 / 0 10 0 0 0
Cross City 72 45 72 44 70 / 0 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 65 47 67 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est This Morning For Waters
From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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