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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 18

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As Surface High Pressure Settles Into The Region Expect Pressure
Gradient Will Relax And Allow Winds To Subside After Sunset.

However, We Will Likely Hold Some Light Winds Through Much Of The
Night And This Could Limit Extent Or Duration Of Any Sub-Freezing
Temperatures As Lows Dip Into The Lower To Mid 30s Under Clear Skies Tonight.

Colder Locales May Dip To Near Or Below Freezing For An Hour Or Two Near Sunrise, However Expect Potential Will Remain Too Marginal For A Freeze Warning.

Will Maintain Mention Of Patchy Frost However.

Short Term [Saturday Through Monday]...

The Current Zonal Flow Pattern Over The Conus Will Begin To Amplify
Sunday And Monday As A Broad Long Wave Trough Gradually Develops Over Much Of The Northern Conus.

With Such Dry Air Dominating Much Of The Conus, We Expect Fair Weather And Seasonal Temperatures.

Lows Will Generally Be In The Upper 30s (40s At The Beaches And
Downtown), And Highs In The 60s.

A Dry Cold Front Will Approach From The North Late Monday, But Is Unlikely To Have Any Significant Impacts Locally, Other Than Bringing In Some Cold Dry Air.

More On This In Our Long Term Discussion...

Long Term [Tuesday Through Next Friday]...

The Latest Global Model Runs Are Consistent With Previous Runs And Each Other, Showing A Progressive Large Scale Weather Pattern Over The Conus.

The Period Begins With A High-Amplitude Long Wave Trough Over The Eastern Conus Through Wednesday Morning (And Cold Air
Advection Over Our Region), Followed By Rapid Deamplification Of
500mb Heights Late Wednesday And Thursday (With An Accompanying Warming Trend For Our Region).

Another Broad, High-Amplitude Trough Will Rapidly Develop Over The Eastern Conus On Friday.

With So Much Dry, Stable Continental Air Across The Southeast, Widespread Precipitation Appears Doubtful.

Probably The Most Significant Local Weather Impact Will Be The Possibility Of A Freeze Wednesday And Thursday Mornings.

Aviation [Beginning 19z Friday]...

Vfr Will Hold Through The Weekend With Clear Skies.

Winds Will Remain Gusty Into The Early Evening...Especially At Kvld With Winds Becoming Light After Dark And Holding Very Light Northeast Winds Saturday.

Marine...

Advisory Conditions Were No Longer Occurring Near Shore.

Even Though The Winds May Fall A Little Below Advisory Levels At Times This Evening, We Will Leave The Exercise Caution Near Shore And Offshore Advisory As Is Until Saturday Morning, As The Nwp Guidance Consensus Shows Winds Right Around 20 Kt Beyond 20 Miles Offshore For Much Of Tonight.

Winds And Seas Will Continue To Subside Saturday.

Fire Weather...

With Cooler Temperatures And Slight Increase In Moisture...Along With Lighter Winds...Fire Weather Concerns Should Remain Limited Through The Weekend And Into Early Next Week.

Hydrology...

River Stages Remain Below Action Stage, And This Is Unlikely To
Change Any Time Soon.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 34 67 40 70 38 / 0 0 10 0 10
Panama City 43 64 48 67 46 / 0 0 10 0 10
Dothan 34 63 40 67 41 / 0 0 10 0 10
Albany 32 65 40 67 38 / 0 0 10 0 10
Valdosta 34 66 42 70 40 / 0 0 10 0 10
Cross City 38 72 45 71 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 44 63 48 66 47 / 0 0 10 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Red Flag Warning Until 6 Pm Est /5 Pm Cst/ This Evening For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

Ga...None.

Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 5 Am Est Saturday For Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters
From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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