Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 17

Near Term (Through Tonight)...

The Once Stationary Cold Front Finally Pushed Through Our Forecast
Today, Bringing With It Noticeably Colder Air And High Winds, But
Little Precipitation.

There Were Still Some Scattered Very Light Showers In Southeast Al And Southwest Ga, And We Recently Even Received A Report Of A Little Bit Of Light Ice Pellets And Snow Mixing In With The Light Rain Near Fort Rucker.

Such Occurrences Will Be Very Brief And Spotty Given The Strong, Large Scale Subsidence And Very Dry Air Above 650mb. At Any Rate, Surface Temperatures Are Far Too Warm For Any Accumulations. In Short, This Will Be A No-Impact Event For The Few Places That Even Get Any Non-Liquid Precip.

Peak Gusts So Far Across The Area Have Been 36 Kts On Fsu Campus, 24 Kts At Ktlh, 30 At Kecp, 28 At Kdhn, 25 Kts At Kaby, And 23 At Kvld. Over The Water Its Even More Rough With The Highest 10m Wind Of 18 M/S (40 mph) Observed At The C Tower.

Winds Will Diminish Later This Evening, And The Wind Advisory Will End At 7 Pm Est.

Min Temperatures Tonight Will Be Much Colder Than What We've Been Seeing- In The Mid 30s. If Youre Going Out This Evening, You Might Want To Consider Dressing In Layers And Grabbing A Windbreaker!

Short Term [Friday Through Sunday]...

Fair Weather Will Be The Rule As The 500mb Flow Becomes Rather
Zonal Over The Southeast.

A Light Freeze And/Or Frost Is Possible Saturday Morning, Though Its Still Unclear Whether Or Not The Surface Winds Will Go Calm (Which Usually Has To Happen To Get A Freeze In This Region).

Temperatures Will Return To About Average Saturday Afternoon Through Sunday.

Long Term (Monday Through Next Thursday)...

The Latest Global Models Forecast A Progressive Pattern Over The
Conus.

The Period Begins With A Deep 500mb Long Wave Trough Over The
Eastern Conus, And Plenty Of Very Dry Arctic Air At The Surface.

Heights Will Recover Later In The Week As The Arctic Air Modifies
Ahead Of The Next Trough Over The Central Conus.

Locally, A Dry Cold Front Will Pass South Through Our Forecast Area Late Monday Or Early Tuesday, Setting Up A Breezy, Cool Day Tuesday, And A Possible Freeze Wednesday Morning. Just How Cold It Gets Remains Unclear, As The Models Still Differ On The Trajectory Of Coldest Air And The Surface High Position. (The Cmc Continues To Be The Coldest Model, Taking The Core Of The Coldest Air More Directly Southward Than The Gfs Or Ecmwf).

Temperatures Will Moderate Quickly Later In The Week, But Not Reach The Abnormally Warm Levels Recently Experienced.

Aviation [Beginning 18z Today]...

Widespread Mvfr Cigs Will Continue This Afternoon Over Se Alabama, The Florida Panhandle And Sw Georgia Underneath A Fast-
Moving Low Center Now Located In North Georgia.

There Is A Pretty Good Vfr Break In The Clouds Over The Florida Big Bend Which Is Expanding Across North Florida Which Will Continue This Afternoon.

Clouds Will Lift Out Of The Area Tonight. Expect Windy Conditions With Gusts Ranging 20 To 30 Kts The Remainder Of The Day.

Though Gustiness Will Abate After Sunset, Expect Northwest To
Northerly Winds All Night Long At All The Aerodromes.

Winds Will Become Northeasterly During The Day Tomorrow Likely Becoming Gusty Again In The Afternoon.

Marine...

Gale Force Wind Gusts Will Gradually Die Down Tonight, But Advisory
Conditions Are Likely To Persist Until Friday Evening Well Offshore.

Light To Occasionally Moderate Offshore Winds Will Likely Continue Into Early Next Week, Then Increase To Exercise Caution Or Even Advisory Levels Behind A Dry Cold Front Tuesday.

Fire Weather...

Much Colder Drier Air Moving Into The Area Today Will Cause Relative
Humidity Values To Drop Below 35 Percent Over The Entire Area For 4
Or More Hours On Friday Afternoon.

Dispersion Values Are Also Forecast To Be Greater Than 75 Across Some Of The Entire Area Except For Walton County.

However, With The Recent Rainfall, Erc Values Will Likely Be Below 20, So Red Flag Criteria Is Not Expected At This Time.

Elsewhere, Relative Humidity Values Are Not Expected To Be Low Enough For Red Flag Conditions.

Hydrology...

River Stages Remain Below Action Stage, And This Unlikely To Change Any Time Soon.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 35 62 33 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 38 60 42 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 34 60 34 63 39 / 10 0 0 0 10
Albany 35 60 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 37 60 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 34 64 37 71 43 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 39 59 43 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...
Wind Advisory Until 7 Pm Est /6 Pm Cst/ This Evening For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

High Surf Advisory Until 1 Am Est /Midnight Cst/ Friday For
Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

Ga...
Wind Advisory Until 7 Pm Est This Evening For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

Al...
Wind Advisory Until 6 Pm Cst This Evening For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory From 1 Am To 7 Pm Est Friday For
Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To
Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To
60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60
Nm.

Gale Warning Until 1 Am Est Friday For Apalachee Bay Or
Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl
Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee
River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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