Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 16

Near Term [Tonight]...

Everything Is On Track. Movement And Timing Of The Frontal
Passage Through The Area Tonight Has Been Consistent From Model Run To Model Run.

Forecast Rainfall Totals In The Tae Cwa However Are Coming In Lighter Than Previously Forecast And Qpf Grids Were Adjusted Accordingly To The Hpc Guidance.

Though The Front Had Been Well Connected To The Eastern Pacific Moisture Source, Most Recent Wv Loops Are Showing Good Subsidence And Drying Behind The Vorticity Center Over Texas Helping To Limit The Rainfall Totals.

No Thunderstorm Activity Has Been Noted Today And None Is Expected Overnight In This Very Stable Over-Running Event.

Currently A Local Vort Max In The Flow Is Helping To Enhance Some Light Precipitation Over Southeast Alabama And Portions Of Sw Georgia. But This Will Rapidly Advect Northeast Out Of The Area By Sunset.

A Second Impulse Is Forecast To Race Up The Front After Midnight
Concurrently With The Deepening Of A Surface Low Over North
Georgia. This Event Will Provide The Bulk Of Limited Amount Of
Precipitation To The Area Overnight Behind The Cold Front As It
Finally Speeds Up To The East. Temperatures Will Remain Fairly
Warm Over Night Again Ahead Of The Front.

Short Term [Thursday Through Saturday]...

Strong Vertical Motion Fields Will Develop Thursday Morning As A
Strong 500mb Vorticity Max (Currently Over Tx) Interacts With A
Developing Frontal Wave Over East Ga.

Despite The Cold Front Being East Of Our Forecast Area By Then, There Will Be A Favorable Enough Combination Of Deep Layer Moisture And Ascent For Widespread Rain.

All Of The Latest Nwp Guidance Forecast A Pronounced Mid Tropospheric Dry Slot Developing Over Our Region Thursday Afternoon, So The Rain Will End From Southwest To Northeast During The Mid To Late Afternoon Hours.

The Combination Of Cold Air Advection, Abundant Clouds, And Perhaps Even Some Evaporative Cooling (Rain Falling Through A Drying Boundary Layer) Will Make For A Relatively Chilly And Dreary Day, Especially Given The Recent Stretch Of Unseasonably Warm Temperatures.

Highs Will Range From The Mid To Upper 40s In Our Northwest Zones To Mid 60s Southeast, But That Is Misleading Because The Highs Will Occur During The Morning Hours.

Temperatures Across Much Of The Forecast Area Will Be In The 50s,
And Gusty Winds Will Make It Feel Even Colder.

Skies Will Clear Thursday Night As The Frontal Wave Over East Ga Will Be Moving Off The Mid Atlantic Coast.

The Mos Consensus Shows A Light Freeze Likely North And West Of Tallahassee, With A Near-Freeze From Tallahassee To Cross City.

However, This Seems Unlikely Given The Expectation That Surface Winds Will Remain At 5 Mph Or Higher Through The Night.

We Blended In Several "High Resolution" Model Temperature Forecasts, Which Have Shown Skill In These Situations When The Boundary Layer Is Well-Mixed And "Run-Away Radiational Cooling" Does Not Occur. The Resulting Low Temperature Forecast Keeps Temperatures Above Freezing, Though It May Be Close In Portions Of Southeast Alabama.

Some Of The Mos Are Forecasting A Light Freeze For Saturday Morning As Well, But The Large Scale Synoptic Pattern Doesnt Look Particularly Favorable At This Time. Perhaps Some Patchy Frost Could Be A Concern Though.

Otherwise, Fair Weather And Near-Average High Temperatures Are
Expected Friday And Saturday.

Long Term (Sunday Through Next Wednesday)...

The Bulk Of This Period Will Feature Anomalously Negative 500mb
Heights Over The Eastern Conus, Which Correlates To Cold, Dry
Conditions At The Surface.

For Now The Global Model Consensus Keeps The Bulk Of The Arctic Air North And East Of Our Forecast Area, But It Will Still Be Quite Cool And Dry Compared To Our Recent Weather.

The Coldest Period Will Likely Be Tuesday And Wednesday, With Highs Only In The 50s (Despite Plenty Of Sunshine) And Lows Wednesday Around Freezing.

How Widespread And Severe This Freeze May Be Depends On Several Details That Wont Be Resolved For A Few Days.

Aviation [Beginning 20z Wednesday]...[Through 18z Thursday]

Mvfr Cigs Continued All Day Today At Kdhn, Kepc And Ktlh Ahead Of The Front With Some Gusty Winds Primarily Closer To The Front In Se Alabama And Southwest Georgia.

Only Kaby And Kvld Broke Out Briefly To Vfr. This Wont Last.

It Will Get Soupy Tonight With Ifr Cigs And Vsbys In Light To Occasionally Moderate Rain Near And Behind The Cold Front As It Begins Moving East After Midnight.

Cigs Will Improve To Mvfr Tomorrow Morning After Frontal Passage, But Light Rain Will Continue All Day Tomorrow Behind The Front.

Marine...

There Is Excellent Agreement Among The Latest Nwp Guidance That
"High-End Small Craft Advisory" Conditions Will Develop Thursday
Morning As The Frontal Wave In Ga Begins To Deepen Rapidly.

In Fact, Inferred Wind Gusts (Using Model Forecast Transport Winds) And Explicit Gust Forecasts Show Gale Force Gusts (34 Kt) Late
Thursday Morning And Afternoon.

We Will Issue A Gale Watch.

These Gusts Will Diminish Thursday Evening As The Frontal Wave Pulls Away To The Northeast, So This Will Be A Short- Lived, Marginal Gale Event.

Fire Weather...

A Cold Front Will Bring Cloudy Damp Conditions Overnight Tonight,
Followed By Rapidly Dropping Temperatures All Day Tomorrow.

Post Frontal Rainfall And Clouds Will Be Slow To Abate Tomorrow But Skies Will Begin To Clear Tomorrow Evening.

Gusty Winds And Lower Dewpoints Will Rule The Entire Day Tomorrow.

Relative Humidity Values Will Fall Below 35 Percent Across The Entire Area On Friday.

High Dispersions Are Also Forecast For Friday Afternoon. Though Erc Values Are Currently Near Or Less Than 20 Over A Large Portion Of The Area Red Flag Conditions Remain A Possibility On Friday.

Hydrology...

Neither The Relatively Heavy Upstream Rain (North And Northwest Of
Our Forecast Area) Or The Storm Total Rain We Expect Locally (Up
To An Inch In Ga And Al) Are Likely To Be Enough To Significantly
Impact Our River Stages.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 55 58 35 60 34 / 80 70 10 0 10
Panama City 50 56 38 59 38 / 90 60 10 0 10
Dothan 46 49 34 57 33 / 90 90 10 0 10
Albany 52 57 34 59 33 / 80 90 10 0 10
Valdosta 59 62 37 60 35 / 60 70 10 0 10
Cross City 58 65 36 64 38 / 40 60 10 0 10
Apalachicola 55 60 40 58 38 / 80 60 10 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Gale Watch From Late Tonight Through Thursday Evening For
Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To
Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To
60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60
Nm.


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