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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 15

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Upper Level Pattern Currently Shows A Highly Amplified Long Wave Trough With Axis Extending From Minnesota Through Extreme West Texas And Persistent Deep Layer Ridging Just Off The Atlantic Seaboard.

A Long Fetch Of Very Moist Southwest Flow Continued To Extend From The Western Gulf Into The Mid-Atlantic States.

At The Surface, The Quasi-Stationary Front Extended From Northeast Georgia Southwest To Near To Mobile And Then Southwest Into The Gulf. Strong Shortwave Energy Rounding The Base Of The Upper Trough Will Move Into Northern Texas Overnight With A Low Closing Off Over The Red River Valley.

This Will Begin To Kick The Front East And Move Into Our Se Alabama
And Florida Panhandle Zones By Daybreak.

Will Show Chance Pops Along And West Of A Line From Near Albany To Panama City And Slight Chance To Nil Elsewhere.

Min Temps Will Still Be Quite Warm Ranging From The Mid 50s Southeast Big Bend To Upper 50s To Lower 60s Elsewhere.

Fog Should Once Again Develop Overnight But Will Not Go As Extensive As Guidance Suggests.

Short Term (Wednesday Through Friday)...

The 500 Mb Height Pattern Is Forecast To Temporarily Deamplify, As
The Deep, Positive Tilted Long Wave Trough Currently Over The
Central Conus Lifts Out East Northeastward.

At Long Last This More Progressive Large Scale Pattern Will Help Drive A Stubbornly Slow Cold Front (Currently A Quasi-Stationary Front Just To Our Northwest) Through Our Forecast Area, Though It Will Be A Slow Process.

The Latest Nwp Guidance Is In Pretty Good Agreement With The Timing Of This Front, As They Have It Entering Our Western Zones
Wednesday, Bisecting Our Forecast Area From Northeast To Southwest Wednesday Night, Then Finally Exiting Our Eastern Zones Thursday.

During Its Slow Trek, A Frontal Wave Is Forecast To Develop
Wednesday Night And Thursday As A Potent Vorticity Max (Currently
At The Base Of The Aforementioned Long Wave Trough Over Nm) Draws Near. The Deep Layer Moisture And Q-G Forcing Will Increase During This Process.

Despite Being A Fairly Energetic System, The Probability Of Surface-Based Thunderstorms Are Virtually Nil, Though An Elevated Storm Or Two Is Not Out Of The Question During The Time Of Strongest Vertical Motion Thursday Morning.

Widespread Rain Is Expected With This Event, With The Storm Total Qpf Ranging From 1 To 1.5 Inches In Ga And Al, To Only 0.25 Inches Around Cross City. The Rain Will End Thursday Evening.

Wednesday Will Be The Last In What Has Been A Recent String Of
Unseasonably Warm Temperatures.

This Will Make Thursdays Cool-Down Feel All-The-More Chilly, As Temperatures Remain In The 50s All Day Under Cloudy Skies And Breezy Conditions.

Temperatures May Fall Into The Upper 40s Around Dothan & Albany Late Afternoon.

Wind Speeds And Some Lingering Clouds Will Likely Prevent A Freeze Friday Morning, But Lows Will Still Drop Into The Upper 30s.

Highs On Friday Will Be In The 50s With Partial Clearing.

Long Term (Saturday Through Next Tuesday)...

The Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Are In Good Agreement In Forecasting Large 500mb Height Falls Over The Conus (East Of The Rockies) Early Next Week, Coupled With Plenty Of Very Cold Arctic Air At The Surface.

Saturday Through Monday Our Temperatures Will Be Near Average, With Lows In The 30s And Highs In The 60s.

By Monday Night Or Early Tuesday, However, An Arctic Cold Front May Pass Through Our Forecast Area, Setting Up A 24-Hour Period Of Strong Cold Air Advection.

As Is Often The Case This Far Out, There Are Model Differences
Regarding The Details Of How Cold It Could Get Here, But We Have
Plenty Of Time To Watch.

Aviation [Through 18z Wednesday]...

Mvfr Cigs Continue Early This Afternoon Over Portions Of Northwest
Georgia And Se Al Including The Dhn Terminal.

Otherwise, Vfr Conditions Prevail Through The Remainder Of The Region.

Expect Mvfr/Ifr Cigs/Vsbys To Gradually Overspread All Terminals Late This Evening And Overnight Along With Periods Of Showers At Dhn, Ecp And Possibly Aby By Daybreak.

Mvfr/Ifr Conditions May Persist At All Terminals Well Into The Afternoon Wednesday.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Will Not Be That All That High Through Wednesday Due To The Relatively Flat Pressure Field Usually Associated With A
Frontal Zone Like This.

However, Advisory Conditions Are Likely By Thursday Morning, Persisting Well Into Friday.

Fire Weather...

Low Level Moisture Will Remain Elevated Across The Region Through Thursday.

Drier Air Will Filter In Behind A Cold Front Friday But Red Flag Criteria Are Not Expected To Be Met At This Time.

Hydrology...

Despite The Possibility Of Heavy Rains Upstream (Well North And
Northwest Of Our Forecast Area), The Latest Nhp Guidance Does Not
Show Significant Rises In Our Rivers This Upcoming Week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 58 76 58 58 38 / 10 30 50 80 10
Panama City 63 71 53 56 39 / 30 40 70 60 0
Dothan 62 69 47 51 36 / 40 50 80 80 10
Albany 60 74 56 56 38 / 20 40 80 90 10
Valdosta 57 78 59 60 40 / 10 20 30 80 10
Cross City 54 78 58 65 40 / 10 10 20 50 10
Apalachicola 62 71 58 60 40 / 10 30 50 60 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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