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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 14

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Little Substantive Change In The Pattern Is Forecast In The Near
Term And Therefore Persistence Will Be A Good Forecast.

The Upper Ridge Is Holding Strong Over Fl And The Bahamas With A Giant Positively Tilted Trough Dominating The Western 2/3 Of The Nation.

Surface Analysis Shows A Cold Front Extending From Near Pensacola Northeast Through Atlanta To The Mid Atlantic Coast. With Upper Level Flow Parallel To The Front, Little Movement Of The Front Is Expected And In Fact Is Is Now Analyzed As Stationary.

Slight To Low Chance (20-30) Pops Will Remain Limited To The Northwest Half Of The Forecast Area.

Min Temps Will Range From The Lower 50s Southeast To Around 60 Under Thicker Cloud Cover Over Our Western Zones. These Clouds Should Once Again Limit Fog Formations Across The West.

However, Eastern Areas Could See Areas Of Fog Develop Once Again
After Midnight And Persist Until 14z Or So. The Fog Is Not Anticipated To Be Dense Or Widespread Enough To Require An Advisory.

Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Strong Shortwave Over Arizona At The Beginning Of The Period Drops
Southeastward Through The Base Of The Upper Trough Closing Off A Low Over West Texas Wednesday Morning. This Feature Continues To Intensify As It Moves Into Central Texas By 00z Thu.

This Will Be The Kicker That Will Finally Send The Stalled Front Through Our Cwa And End Our Very Unusual January Warm Spell.

However, For Most Of The Tri-State Region, That Will Have To Wait Until Either Wednesday Or Beyond This Short Term Period.

In The Meantime, For Tuesday The Quasi-Stationary Front Will Remain West Of Our Cwa As A Weak Wave Translates Along It From The North Central Gulf Into Northeast Georgia By Evening.

Pops Will Be Distributed From Slight To Low End Chance West Of A Tifton, Ga To Mexico Beach, Fl Line With Silent 10 Percent/Nil Pops East Of There.

Temps Tuesday Will Be Well Above Seasonal Levels In The Upper 70s To Around 80 All Inland Zones Except Lower To Mid 70s Extreme West.

The Front Enters Or Cwa Wednesday And Pops Increase To Chance For All Zones.

Temps Will Be Noticeably Cooler For All But The Florida Big Bend And The Region In And Around Valdosta.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

Stagnant Upper Flow Pattern Is Finally Forecast To Change By
Mid-Week As A Ridge Builds Into West Coast And Pushes The Mean
Trough Axis To The East. As Part Of This Transition, Models Are In
Good Agreement That An Upper Low Will Move From Texas To The
Mississippi River Wednesday Night And Thursday Morning.

This Upper Energy Will Finally Push The Quasi-Stationary Frontal Boundary (Currently To Our North) Well Into The Forecast Area.

Weak Low Pressure Will Develop Along The Front Thursday Morning And Move Across North Florida.

Expect To See An Area Of Overrunning Precip Move Across The Area As Well On Thursday In Association With This System.

A Cooler Airmass Will Move Into The Region In The Wake Of The Cold
Front.

However, Temperatures Are Only Expected To Fall Back To Near
Seasonal Norms.

The Cool Surface High Is Expected To Become Stretched East-West And Centered Just North Of The Region Moving Into Next Weekend.

This Will Result In A Pretty Healthy Easterly Flow Across The Region, Which Will Bring Some Modest Moisture Return, And Possibly Some Isolated Showers For The Eastern Half Of The Forecast Area.

Aviation...[Through 18z Tuesday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected By 20z For All Terminals.

Conditions Will Deteriorate Around Midnight With Low Cigs Moving Into The Western Terminals And Fog Remaining The Main Threat In The East.

Kdhn Has A Slight Chance For Showers Throughout This Taf Period, But Pops Remain Low Enough That Rain Was Left Out Of These Tafs.

Marine...

Southerly Flow Of 10-15 Knots Is Expected To Mostly Persist Through Wednesday.

After That Time, A Cold Front Will Push Through With More Elevated Winds And Seas Likely By Thursday.

The Current Forecast Calls For Conditions Reaching Small Craft Advisory Levels By Then.

Fire Weather...

Continued Southerly Flow Will Keep Humidity Levels High And Fire
Weather Concerns At A Minimum Through At Least Thursday.

Hydrology...

Light To Occasionally Moderate Showers Are Expected Over The Next
Few Days With Limited Or No Significant River Impacts Anticipated.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 56 78 57 74 52 / 10 10 20 40 30
Panama City 62 79 59 72 52 / 20 20 30 40 30
Dothan 60 75 58 67 47 / 30 30 40 40 30
Albany 57 80 59 72 46 / 20 20 30 40 30
Valdosta 56 78 57 75 48 / 10 10 20 20 30
Cross City 52 80 54 79 53 / 10 0 10 20 20
Apalachicola 61 72 61 72 54 / 10 10 20 40 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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