Short Term [Today Through Monday]...
An Amplified Upper Pattern Remains In Place Across The Conus This
Morning, With A Deep Trough Over The Western States And
Unseasonably Strong Ridge Over The East.
This Flow Pattern Is Forecast To Remain Largely Unchanged Through Early Next Week, Keeping The Local Forecast Area Unseasonably Warm And Mostly Dry.
Max Temperatures Have Been Running A Little Above Guidance For
The Past Few Days. Elected To Follow This Trend For Today And
Sunday, With Forecast Highs A Degree Or Two Above The Warmer Mav Guidance.
By Monday, Approaching Frontal Boundary And Associated Cloud Cover/Precip Should Limit Temperatures Over The Western Third Of The Area. The Remainder Of The Forecast Area Will Remain Well Above Normal.
The Frontal Zone, And Associated Precip, Is Forecast To Remain
Northwest Of The Area Through Sunday.
By Monday, The Upper Ridge Is Forecast To Weaken Slightly, Allowing The Front To Sag South Into Southern Alabama.
This Will Lead To An Increase In Showers Across This Area For Late Sunday Night Into Monday. However, The Strongest Forcing Is Expected To Remain North Of The Area, Keeping The Activity Scattered.
With The Ridge Aloft And Moist Low-Level Airmass, Dense Fog Will
Remain Possible For The Next Few Nights.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...
The Extended Forecast Remains Rather Low Confidence At This
Point, Particularly After Tuesday When Global Model Disagreement
Becomes More Pronounced.
The Period Begins With An Inverted Surface Trough And Quasi-Stationary Front Situated Near Or Just Beyond The Nw Extent Of Our Area, And A High-Amplitude Mid And Upper Level Trough That Is Established Well West Of Our Area.
The Resultant Deep Sw Flow Is A Pattern That Typically Inhibits
Substantial Cold Air Advection, And Thus The Surface Front Should
Be Slow Moving.
There Is Not Much Difference Between The 12.00z Operational Runs Of The Cmc, Ecmwf, And Gfs Through Tuesday Night - The Front Gradually Pushes Into Our Area With Increasing Cloudiness And Showers.
After That, The Ecmwf And The Cmc/Gfs Diverge.
The Ecmwf Closes Off An Upper Level Low Over The Rio Grande Valley As A Consequence Of A Strong Digging Shortwave On The Backside Of The Larger-Scale Trough. Meanwhile, The Gfs/Cmc Deamplify The Pattern More Rapidly.
The Result Is A Difference Between A Continued Cloudy Forecast With Occasional Light Showers (Ecmwf), Or Clearing Skies With Cooler Temperatures And A Breezy North Wind (Gfs/Cmc).
It Should Be Noted That About Half Of The Gfs Ensemble Members Depict Something Similar To What The Ecmwf Is Forecasting. With Low Confidence, The Forecast Was Weighted Heavily Towards Hpc Guidance And The Previous Forecast.
Aviation [Through 06z Sunday]...
Probabilistic Guidance Via The Sref And Narre Ensembles Continues To Indicate High Probability Of Ifr Or Lifr Conditions Developing At
All Terminals At Some Point Tonight. This Would Be Likely To Start
Earliest And Last Longest In The Western Part Of The Area - At Dhn
And Ecp. Some Of The Terminals May See Conditions Fall Below
Airfield Minimums For A Time.
Gradual Improvement Is Expected In The Morning After Sunrise, With Vfr Likely By Afternoon.
Light To Moderate Southeast Flow Will Continue Over The Coastal
Waters Into Early Next Week, As High Pressure Remains In Place
North Of The Bahamas.
Offshore Flow Is Expected To Develop By Wednesday In The Wake Of A Cold Front.
While Conditions May Occasionally Reach Exercise Caution Levels, Advisory Level Conditions Are Not Anticipated.
Continued Southerly Flow Will Keep Humidity Levels High And Fire
Weather Concerns At A Minimum Through At Least The Middle Of The
Next Work Week.
No Appreciable Rainfall Amounts Are Expected Through The Next Few
Days And The Rivers Will Remain Low.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 80 55 79 59 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 75 61 74 63 72 / 0 10 20 30 20
Dothan 80 60 79 62 72 / 0 10 20 30 40
Albany 82 56 81 62 76 / 0 10 20 20 30
Valdosta 81 56 80 58 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
Cross City 82 54 80 54 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 72 60 71 61 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
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