Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 11

Short Term [Today Through Sunday]...

The Large Scale Pattern Across The Conus Is Not Forecast To
Change Much Over The Next Three Days.

The Pattern Will Continue To Be Dominated By A Deep Trough Over The Western States And An Unseasonably Strong Ridge Stretching From The Eastern Gulf Northward Along The Eastern Seaboard.

Between These Two Features, A Quasi-Stationary Baroclinic Zone Remains Situated From The Lower Mississippi River Valley Into Central Tennessee. This Area Will Continue To Be The Focus Of Unsettled Weather For The Next Several Days.

The Local Forecast Area Will Remain Just South And East Of This
Unsettled Area, With Just Slight Rain Chances Possible For The Far
Western Zones Today And Again On Sunday.

Otherwise, The Unseasonably Warm Weather Will Continue, With Highs Reaching Well Into The Upper 70s And Low Only Falling Into The Mid To Upper 50s.

Most Significant Weather Impacts Over The Next Few Days May Be
From Dense Fog.

Guidance (Statistical And Explicit) Is Rather Bullish On The Potential For Dense Fog Late Tonight Into Saturday Morning; A Result Of Warm, Moist Low-Level Flow Moving Inland Off Of The Cool Nearshore Waters.

Will Mention Areas Of Dense Fog For Tonight, With Dense Fog Advisories A Possibility With Later Updates.

Long Term [Sunday Night Through Next Friday]...

The Overall Trend In The Extended Forecast Will Be For A Transition From A Highly Amplified Flow Pattern To An Increasingly Zonal Flow Pattern.

The Period Will Begin With A Highly Amplified Longwave Trough (Axis Extending From Hudson Bay To The Four Corners). The Mid And Upper Level Trough Axis Remains Situated West Of Our Area Through Wednesday As The Trough Deamplifies, With Heights Hardly Fluctuating From Levels On Sunday Night And Monday.

Therefore, For The First Half Of The Period We Are Expecting A Slow-Moving Surface Front To Remain Primarily Just North And West Of Our Area.

The Gfs Moves The Front Through Our Area More Quickly (By Tuesday Morning). However, The Ecmwf, Cmc, Ukmet, As Well As The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Indicate A Slower Progression With The Surface Front Not Pushing Through The Area Until Tuesday Night.

For Now We Sided With The Broader Consensus Of Global Model Guidance; The Slower Frontal Progression Is Supported By The Deep Southwest Flow Across The Region.

It Will Remain Warm Prior To The Arrival Of The Front, With Temperatures Falling To Seasonal Normals Behind The Front.

Although There Are Some Rain Chances With The Front, The Ecmwf And Gfs Projected Lis And Showalter Indices Are In The Positive Range, So There Was No Mention Of Thunderstorms Included At This Time.

Aviation [Through 06z Saturday]...

During The Course Of The Overnight, Mid And High Level Cloud
Cover Has Shown A Tendency To Gradually Dissipate On Ir Satellite,
Which Could Lead To Some Areas Of Ifr Or Mvfr Cigs Or Fog
Developing.

Although This Is Possible, The Chances Of Significant Reductions Into The Lifr Range Appear Lower Based On The Newest Model Guidance. Things Should Trend To Vfr By Afternoon, With Better Chances For Low Cigs And Fog On Friday Night.

Marine...

With High Pressure Parked Just North Of The Bahamas, Light To
Moderate South To Southeast Flow Will Continue Over The Waters
Through Early Next Week.

Winds And Seas May Occasionally Approach Exercise Caution Criteria, Especially West Of Apalachicola.

Fire Weather...

South To Southeasterly Flow Will Keep Humidity Levels Rather High
And Fire Weather Concerns At A Minimum For The Foreseeable Future.

Hydrology...

No Appreciable Rainfall Amounts Are Expected Through The Next Few
Days And The Rivers Will Remain Low.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 78 55 78 56 77 / 10 10 0 10 10
Panama City 74 61 73 61 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
Dothan 78 61 79 61 78 / 20 20 10 10 20
Albany 79 58 79 58 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 78 57 78 57 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
Cross City 79 55 80 55 79 / 10 10 0 10 10
Apalachicola 70 59 70 60 70 / 10 10 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl…None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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