Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 10

Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface Analysis Showed The Frontal Boundary Nearly Stationary Across Our Region, Though The Boundary Was Much Less Defined Than Just 24 Hours Ago.

Further West, Closer To The Surface Low Over Texas, The Warm Frontal Boundary Is Much Better Defined And Continuing To Lift Northward. A Large Upper Low Is Nearing The Surface Low Across Texas And Is Expected To Lift Quickly Northward Today Up The Mississippi River Valley.

This Will Lift The Frontal Boundary Well To Our North, Allowing Plenty Of Warm Moist Air To Spread Into The Region. Forcing For Large Scale Ascent Will Be Fairly Weak Today, But A Slight Chance Of A Shower Cannot Be Ruled Out.

Temperatures Will Be Quite Warm For Mid January With Some Areas In The Southeast Florida Big Bend Rising About Near 80 Degrees. Most Other Locations Will Be In The Mid To Upper 70s.

Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Unseasonably Warm Conditions Are Expected To Continue Throughout The Entire Length Of The Short Term Period.

As A Weak And Decaying Cold Front Approaches The Region From The West This Evening, Rain Chances Will Briefly Increase. However, Late Tonight, Any Significant Forcing For Precipitation Will Abruptly End As The Upper Level System Moves Into The Great Lakes.

On Friday And Into Saturday, Ridging At The Surface And Aloft Will Build Over The Region Resulting In Dry And Very Warm Conditions.

The Temperature Forecast Is Actually A Little Tricky Here As Early Morning Stratus/Fog Could Linger Into The Midday Hours Resulting In A Delayed Warmup. This Is Most Likely On Friday And Thus Held Max
Temperatures Back A Couple Of Degrees From The Warmer Mav
Guidance.

By Saturday, This Looks To Be Less Of A Concern, So Temperatures Potentially Could Reach The Lower 80s Over A Large Portion Of The Forecast Area.

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Forecast The Strong Deep Layer Ridge
(Currently Building Over The Eastern Conus) To Translate Very Slowly
East Into The Western Atlantic Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front.

This Front Is Expected To Weaken (In Terms Of Qpf And Cold Air
Advection) By The Time It Passes Slowly Through Our Forecast Area
Wednesday And Thursday. The Pop Will Range From 10 To 30% (Lowest At Cross City, Highest At Dothan), Except Around 30% Nearly Everywhere Late Wednesday.

Temperatures Will Be 10 To 15 Degrees Above Average. A Return To More "Seasonal" Temperatures Is Likely By Next Thursday As The Front Limps Through.

Aviation [Through 06z Friday]...

Since The Synoptic Pattern Has Changed Little Compared To 24 Hours Ago, Persistence Weighed Heavily In This 06 Utc Taf Package (As Did The Latest Hrrr).

Widespread Ifr-Lifr Cigs Are Expected Through The Overnight And Morning Hours, Interrupted Occasionally By Widely Scattered, Brief, Shra.

Areas Of Fog/Dz Are Also Likely, But Wind Speeds May Be High Enough To Prevent Vis Below 2sm At Most Sites.

Cigs Will Improve To Mvfr By Late Morning Or Early Afternoon, With
Even Vfr Cigs Later This Afternoon At Ktlh And Kvld.

Marine...

Winds Have Diminished Below Cautionary Criteria This Morning And
No Additional Headlines Are Anticipated.

Moderate Southeasterly Flow Will Continue Through The Weekend As Our Region Remains On The Western Side Of A Ridge Of High Pressure In The Western Atlantic.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Levels Will Remain Too Moist For Red Flag
Conditions Through At Least This Weekend.

Unusually Low Mixing Heights (With Areas Of Fog And/Or Low Clouds) Will Be A Concern Across Much Of The Region This Morning As Well As Friday Morning, As This Could Contribute To Poor Dispersion.

Hydrology...

No Appreciable Rainfall Amounts Are Expected Through The Next Few
Days.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 77 62 76 58 79 / 20 30 10 10 10
Panama City 75 65 74 62 75 / 20 30 20 10 10
Dothan 72 64 75 61 77 / 30 30 20 10 10
Albany 75 62 77 59 77 / 20 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 78 61 78 58 80 / 20 20 10 10 10
Cross City 81 61 79 55 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
Apalachicola 72 66 71 61 72 / 20 30 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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