Dothan Area Weather Discussion Feb 9

Near Term [Today]...

Upper Level Ridging Will Continue To Build Over The Region.

As The Surface Ridge Extending Down From The Great Lakes This Morning Slides East Toward New England, Local Winds Will Veer From Northeast To East.

After A Cool Start This Morning, Temps Will Warm Into The Upper 60s To Lower 70s Across Much Of The Area.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

The Period Begins With An Upper Level Ridge Axis Over The Area Which Will Translate To Another Mild Afternoon. Max Temps Will Range From The Upper 60s Over Our Northwest Zones To The Mid 70s Over The Lower Suwannee Valley.

The Ridge Axis Will Slide Off The U.S. East Coast For Sunday Night And Monday Leaving Wsw Flow Across The Gulf Coast Region.

A Cold Front Will Cross The Lower Mississippi Valley On Sunday And Then Begin To Lay Out In A More Ene-Wsw Directions As It Enters The Forecast Area On Monday.

Pops By Late In The Day Sunday Will Trend From 50 Over Coffee Co Al To Silent 10 Over The Eastern Fl Big Bend.

Similar Pops Are Forecast For Sunday Night.

Min Temps Will Be Quite Mild With Mid 50s Southeast To Lower 60s Across Southeast Al And The Fl Panhandle.

For Monday, We Trimmed Pops Back Just A Bit From The Previous Forecast With Likely Northwest To Slight Chance Southeast.

We Also Maintain Mention Of Isolated Thunderstorms From Late Sunday Night Through Monday.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Long Term Period Begins With A Frontal System Moving Across The Southeastern States.

Model Guidance Is In Good Agreement That This System Will Run Into A Strong Ridge Just Off The Eastern Seaboard. With Much Of The Upper Level Energy With This System Rapidly Departing In The Northern Stream, The Southern Portion Of The Boundary Is Expected To Stall Across The Southeast From Monday Evening And Into Tuesday.

By Tuesday Evening, A Potent Southern Stream Impulse Is Expected To Move Across The Northern Gulf Coast States And Clear The Frontal Boundary Out Of The Southeast.

At This Time Range, The Primary Difference Between The Gfs And Euro Is How Far South The Boundary Stalls On Monday Night And The Eventual Development Of A Low Pressure Wave On This Boundary Tuesday Night.

More Weight Was Given To The 08/00z Euro As It Has Better Support
Amongst The Available Ensemble Means.

As A Result, Expect An Unsettled Period To The Forecast Beginning Monday Night And Continuing Through Wednesday.

There Is The Potential For Locally Heavy Rainfall Across The Region With This System With Storm Totals Averaging In The 2 To 4 Inch Range.

Thunderstorm Potential Seems Low At This Time Given That Any Surface Low Pressure Area Will Likely Remain Very Near Or Just South Of The Forecast Area.

Beyond Wednesday, More Tranquil But Cool Weather Will Return With
Temperatures Dropping Off Into The Mid 60s During The Daytime With
Lows In The Mid To Upper 30s.

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Through The Period With Winds Gradually Veering From Light Northerly To Light Easterly.


Offshore Winds Will Briefly Surge Upward To Cautionary Levels This
Morning With The Passage Of A Dry Cold Front.

After A Lull This Afternoon, Winds Will Surge Out Of The East And Then Southeast Tonight And Should Reach Advisory Levels.

Winds Will Remain Elevated Across The Western Legs Through Sunday Night, But Will Drop Off For A Time Across The Eastern Legs Sunday Afternoon.

Moderate Onshore Winds Are Then Expected For Early In The Work Week.

An Area Of Low Pressure Is Forecast To Track Across The North Central And Northeast Gulf Coast Tuesday Into Tuesday Night.

Winds Should Increase Once Again As They Veer To The Southwest Late Tuesday And West Tuesday Night.

Winds Will Begin To Decline In The Offshore Flow Behind The Front On Wednesday.

Fire Weather...

Drier Air Will Move Into The Region Today In The Wake Of A Surface
Cold Front.

Minimum Rh Values Below 35 Percent Are Expected Across Inland Portions Of Northwest Florida. However, Wind, Erc, And Dispersion Values Are Expected To Remain Away From Red Flag Criteria.

Moisture Will Increase By Sunday Through Early Next Week With No Red Flag Conditions Expected.


Rivers And Streams In The Shoal And Pea Basins Appear To Have
Crested For The Most Part.

Along The Choctawhatchee River, We Will Continue To See Rises With Both Caryville And Bruce Expected To Reach Action Stage Early Next Week.

The Kinchafoonee Creek Looks Like It Will Crest Near Its Action Stage Later Today. However, Stage At Dawson Is Not Rising As Quickly As Previously Forecast.

There Is Some Potential For Another Round Of Heavy Rain Tuesday Or Tuesday Night As Low Pressure Moves Into The Region From The North Central Gulf Of Mexico.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 69 49 71 58 74 / 0 0 20 20 40
Panama City 69 54 70 62 74 / 0 0 30 40 50
Dothan 66 49 67 61 73 / 0 0 40 40 60
Albany 66 44 69 59 74 / 0 0 40 40 60
Valdosta 68 44 72 57 75 / 0 0 20 20 40
Cross City 73 47 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
Apalachicola 66 54 68 61 72 / 0 10 20 20 40

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



Small Craft Advisory From 4 Am To 4 Pm Est Sunday For Coastal
Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory From 4 Am Sunday To 4 Am Est Monday For
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

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