Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 18 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed A Quasi-Stationary Front From North Central Fl Through The Central Gulf Of Mexico, And An Area Of High Pressure Centered Over Southern In. Vapor Imagery And Upper Air Data Showed A Weak Ridge From The Northeast Gulf Of Mexico To Mn, And A Deep Trough Over The Four Corners Region. The Current Large Scale Weather Pattern Is A Fast One, And The Aforementioned Ridge Will Translate Quickly Eastward As The Major Trough Approaches From The West.
At The Surface, The Front To Our South Will Lift Slowly Northward, To Near Or A Little South Of The Fl Panhandle Coast By 12 Utc Monday.
Rain Chances Will Gradually Increase From South To North, With Rain All But Certain Between 06 Utc And 12 Utc. It May Take Some Time For The Rain To Moisten The Residual Continental Polar Airmass At The Surface, So The Heaviest Rain Will Probably Hold Off Till After 06 Utc, With An Inch Or So Of Rain Likely In The Fl Panhandle.
With The Absence Of A Significant 850 Mb Jet And Any Appreciable
Instability Remaining Offshore, The Threat Of Severe Storms Over
Land Is Very Low.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
The Aforementioned Warm Front Will Lift North Through The Tri-
State Region Through Monday Morning.
This First Wave Of Rain Will Produce A Solid Inch Of Rain During The First Part Of The Day.
As A Low Pressure System Skims The Southeast, It Will Pull A
Secondary Warm Front Through The Local Area Monday Afternoon
Expect Another Inch Or So Of Rain With This Secondary Front.
Finally, Late Monday Night Through Tuesday, The Low Will Push A Cold Front Across The Entire Tri-State Area Bringing A Third And Final Round Of Rain.
Another Inch Or So Is Expected With The Frontal Squall.
Expect The Highest Rain Totals West Of The Apalachicola And Flint Rivers, On The Order Of 3 To 5 Inches, With 2 To 3 Inches Common Elsewhere.
Isolated Rainfall Amounts Of Up To 9 Inches Will Be Possible, Especially West Of The Aforementioned Rivers.
Upper Level Kinematics Are Forecast To Be Minimal With This Event
As The Main Upper Level Support Will Lag All Three Surface Fronts.
Late Monday, Into Monday Night As The Lower Level Low Pressure
Approaches The Region, The Low Level Jet Will Increase To Modest
Levels. The Lack Of Deep Layer Shear, And The Presence Of Low
Level Shear Would Suggest That The Primary Threat Monday Night
Will Be Shallow Supercells With The Potential To Produce Strong
Wind Gusts, But Primarily An Isolated Tornado.
The Limiting Factor Will Be The Forecast Instability. More Specifically, The Surface Based Instability.
With A Large Area Of Rain Expected To Stablize The Boundary Layer Early In The Day, It Will Be Difficult To Realize Strong Wind Gusts Or Funnel Clouds To The Surface. That Being Said, Instability Can Often Be A Funny And Unpredictable Thing. Thus, Should Some Surface Based Instability Be Tapped Into, The Threat For Severe Weather Will Exist Primarily Monday Night Into Early Tuesday Morning.
As The Front Clears From West To East On Tuesday, Skies Will Clear
And Gusty Winds Will Fill In. Expect Gusts From 20 To 30 Mph,
Which Could Bring A Few Trees Down In Extremely Saturated
Locations With Weak Root Systems.
Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The Long Term Will Bring Extended Relief From Flooding Concerns.
Dry Conditions Will Dominate, With Upper Level Troughing.
This Will Spell A Period Of Below Average Temperatures Through The End Of The Week.
By The Weekend A Reinforcing Dry Front Will Bring The Potential For A Light Freeze To The Southeast.
Aviation [Beginning 20z Sunday]...
Vfr Conditions Will Continue Into This Evening, But Cigs Will
Gradually Descend To Mvfr Levels Later Tonight As A Warm Front (And
Rain) Approach From The Gulf Of Mexico.
Ifr Cigs Will Develop Late Tonight Or Early Monday, As Moderate To Occasionally Heavy Rain Occurs.
Rain With Occasional Thunder Will Continue Through Much Of The Day.
On And Off Cautionary Conditions Will Be Possible Through Monday.
Advisory Level Winds And Seas Are Expected By Monday Night When A Strong Warm Front, And Then Cold Front Overspread The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico.
The Strong Southerly Winds With The Warm Front Will Cause Tides To Run About A Foot Above Normal, But The Strongest Winds Should Come Between High Tide Cycles.
Thus, Minimal Coastal Impacts Are Expected.
Although Winds Will Fall To Below Headline Conditions By Wednesday Morning, Expect On And Of Headline Level Winds Into The Weekend As High Pressure Noses In Behind The Slow Moving Low Pressure To Our North.
“Wet Flag" Conditions Are Likely Through At Least Tuesday Morning.
Fuel Moisture Will Slowly Lower Later This Week As The Airmass
Becomes Progressively Cooler And Drier.
Rainfall From The Last 48 Hours Was In Excess Of 4 To 6 Inches
Across Much Of The Forecast Area With Isolated Higher Amounts Across Parts Of Southeast Alabama And Into Southwestern Georgia.
The Only Locations That Have Really Been Spared From The Heavy Rainfall Has Been Across The Southeast Florida Big Bend.
Flash Flooding Potential...
Soils Are Already Saturated Across Southeast Alabama, Southwestern Georgia And Into The Florida Panhandle.
As A Result, Flash Flood Guidance In These Areas Remains Very Low.
Generally Rainfall Rates Above 0.75 In/Hr For 2 To 3 Hours Would Be Enough To Generate Flash Flooding Across These Areas.
More Significant Rain Rates Would Be Necessary Further East Across The Florida Big Bend.
Nevertheless, The Latest High Resolution Guidance Does Support
Increased Flash Flood Potential With This System - Possibly At
Significant Levels In Some Of The Flood Prone Areas Across
Southeast Alabama Through Monday Night.
As A Result, A Flash Flood Watch Is Now In Effect For Much Of The Region For Late Sunday Night Into Tuesday Morning For All Of The Tri-State Area Except The Southeastern Florida Big Bend.
River Flooding Potential...
Now That This Rainfall From The First Storm Is Into The River
Systems, Steady Rises Have Been Observed At The Forecast Points
With Flows Now Well Above Base Levels.
A Few River Points Are In Minor Flood Stage Still And Several Are In Action Stage.
The Current Qpf Forecast For The Next 48 Hours Fed Into The River
Models Are Between 3 To 5 Inches Across The Forecast Area And This Generates Significant Rises Along Many Area Rivers With Several Points Crossing Into The Moderate Flood Category.
Whether Some Of The More Aggressive Forecasts At Locations Along The Choctawhatchee Basin And Over Into The Flint River Basin Verify Will Depend Largely On Where The Heaviest Rainfall Occurs With This Next System.
The Models Have Been In Good Agreement So Our Confidence In
Predicting The Following Crest Stages Is Higher Than Normal:
**Major Flood Stage**
Choctawhatchee At Bruce *
**Moderate Flood Stage**
Choctawhatchee At Caryville *
Ochlockonee River At Havana
Shoal River At Mossy Head *
Chipola River At Altha *
Kinchafoonee Creek At Dawson *
Flint River At Bainbridge
Spring Creek At Iron City
Pea River At Elba *
**Minor Flood Stage**
Choctawhatchee River At Newton Al *
Choctawhatchee River At Geneva *
Ochlockonee River At Thomasville
Chipola River At Marianna *
Apalachicola River At Blountstown
Kinchafoonee Creek At Preston
Flint River At Newton Ga
Flint River At Albany
Sites Marked With A * Indicate The Forecast Flood Stage Ranks In The Top 10 Highest Flood Stages At A Given Site Based On Site History.
For Specific Crest Levels And Timing Of These Crests, Please Consult Our Ahps Page By Clicking On Rivers And Lakes On Our Website. This Can Be Found At
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 75 59 68 63 68 / 30 100 100 90 50
Panama City 69 61 70 64 66 / 30 100 100 100 30
Dothan 70 54 62 57 64 / 10 70 100 100 30
Albany 70 53 60 55 66 / 10 60 100 100 40
Valdosta 74 56 65 62 68 / 10 80 90 80 60
Cross City 75 61 73 66 70 / 40 70 60 70 60
Apalachicola 67 62 69 64 67 / 40 100 100 80 40
Fl...Flash Flood Watch From 1 Am Est (Midnight Cst) Monday Through
Tuesday Morning For All But The Southeast Big Bend.
Ga...Flash Flood Watch From 1 Am Est Monday Through Tuesday
Morning For All Of South Georgia.
Al...Flash Flood Watch From Midnight Cst Tonight Through Tuesday
Morning For All Of Southeast Alabama.
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