Dothan Area Weather Discussion Feb 23

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 12 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed A Quasi-Stationary
Front From The Western Gulf Of Mexico, Through The Fl Panhandle,
And East-Northeastward Off The Ga Coast.

This Was Only Slightly South And East Of Its Positions Friday Afternoon.

Bands Of Heavy Rain Will Continue To Develop Along This Front, Which Will Eventually Drift Southeastward Later This Afternoon And Tonight.

Until It Clears Our Forecast Area (On Sunday), The Threat Of Heavy
Rain Will Continue.

The Large Scale Environment Appears Typical For Flooding
Situations.

There Was A Moist Subtropical Jet Stream Extending Well Into The Tropical Pacific Ocean, And Precip Water Values Were 200% Of Climo Values Locally.

Despite This, Rain Rates So Far Today Have Not Been As High As What We Observed Friday.

Still, Training Could Create Flash Flooding Within Our Flash Flood Watch Area.

We Are Forecasting An Additional 2 Inches Of Rain For Most Areas From Now Through Sunday Morning.

The Trick Is How Quickly That Occurs, As That Will Help Determine If There Is Flash Flooding Or Not.

If There Are More Breaks In The Clouds Today Than Currently
Expected, There Could Be A Slight Increase In The Severe Storm
Threat Today, With Marginally Severe Damaging Winds And/Or A
Tornado Possible.

This Would Be In The Warm Sector, Mainly The Eastern Fl Panhandle and Northeast Fl And South Central Ga.

The Latest High-Res Nwp Guidance Did Not Show Very Robust Updrafts Today, So At Least According To Those Solutions, The Threat Is Low.

Short Term [Sunday Night Through Tuesday]...

The Short Term Forecast Focuses On The 2nd Storm System To Affect
Our Region In This Very Wet Pattern.

This System Promises To Be More Energetic And Pose A Multi-Faceted Hazardous Weather Threat Complete With Flooding And Severe Weather By Monday Afternoon.

The Flooding Will Likely Be The Primary Concern Given How Much Rain Has Already Fallen Across The Region And Given The Condition Of Area Rivers.

However, The Severe Weather Threat With This System Cannot Be Understated.

The Euro Has Been Fairly Consistent With The Overall Progression
Of This System For Several Cycles Though In The Latest Run Is A
Little Further South Than Yesterday.

However, This Difference Has No Meaningful Impact On The Heavy Rain Potential - Though It Would Lessen The Overall Severe Weather Threat. Will Continue To Keep The Official Forecast Close To The Latest Euro Solution.

The Period Begins With A Warm Frontal Boundary Across The Northern Gulf Of Mexico. This Boundary Will Lift Northward Moving Ashore Early Monday Morning As Surface Cyclogenesis Begins Across The Western Gulf Of Mexico As A Potent Upper Trough Digs Into West Texas.

How Quickly The Warm Front Advances Inland Will Depend In Part On How Far South The Surface Cyclone Remains Across The Gulf Coastal States And How Entrenched The Rain Cooled Airmass Is North Of The Boundary Across Middle Georgia.

As Was Seen With The Last System, A Cool Wedge Aided By Widespread Rainfall, Limited The Inland Advance Of The Surface Warm Front Limiting Overall Destabilization.

This Will Be The Main Limiting Factor For Severe Weather As The Kinematic Field Monday Afternoon Through Monday Night Is More Than Sufficient For Severe Weather.

The Latest Guidance Would Seem To Indicate The Severe Threat Would Be More Confined To North Florida And Perhaps A Little Further Inland Into Southern Alabama And Georgia.

Should A Decent Warm Sector Be Able To Penetrate Further Inland, There Would Be A Good Threat For Tornadoes And Damaging Winds In The Afternoon Transitioning To A Potent Squall Line Event Monday Evening Into Monday Night.

Flooding Is Going To Be A Significant Concern.

Lift With The Warm Front Is Very Impressive So Initial Rainfall On Sunday Evening And Into Monday Morning Could Easily Exceed 2 To 3 Inches Across Western Areas.

As The Event Transitions To More Of A Convective Mode, An Additional 2 To 3 Inches Averaged Over A Larger Area Could Be Expected With Isolated Higher Totals.

This Type Of Rainfall Event Will Lead To Further Flash Flooding And Only Increase The Magnitude Of Flooding On Area Rivers.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Friday]...

The Cold Front Will Surge Through The Area Quickly On Tuesday With
Drier Air Moving Into The Region Throughout The Rest Of The Week.

It Looks Like Temperatures Will Be Trending Below Climatology
Through The Extended Part Of The Forecast. Whether The End Result
Is Much Cooler As Depicted In The Euro By The End Of The Period Or
Somewhere In Between Is Uncertain At This Time.

Aviation [Through 12z Sunday]...

Yet Another Very Challenging Forecast For The Terminals Today,
But Conditions Are Expected To Remain Generally Pessimistic.

Ifr To Lifr Conditions Are Expected To Be The Rule In Areas Of Fog,
Low Clouds, And Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms, With Just An Occasional Periods Of Mvfr Levels Possible.

Even After The Showers And Storms Taper Off And End Later Tonight, Additional Low Clouds And Fog Are Likely To Set In And Take Some Time To Burn Off During Sunday Morning.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Will Be Light To Moderate Out Of The Southwest Today And Tonight As A Cold Front Slowly Approaches From The West.

These Winds Will Shift To The Northwest Late Tonight, And Then Swing Around To The East On Sunday.

Thereafter, Winds And Seas Will Increase Sharply To Small Craft Advisory Levels Out Ahead Of A Potent Low Pressure System On Monday Into Monday Night.

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms May Also Accompany This Storm System.

Fire Weather...

There Are No Fire Weather Concerns.

Hydrology...

Two Large Areas Of Rainfall Occurred On Friday Afternoon/Evening
Across The Area.

Both Of These Areas (One In Southeast Alabama And The Other In The Florida Panhandle) Generated Between 3 To 5 Inches Of Rain Over A Widespread Area. Only South Central Georgia Avoided The Heavy Rainfall With 1 To 2 Inches Falling There.

The Next Round Of Rainfall Will Move Through The Region Today And
A Fairly Long Train Of Echos Extend All The Way Back Into Coastal
Louisiana. These Cells Are Already Producing Rainfall Rates In
Excess Of 1.5 Inches Per Hour.

As This Feature Moves Into The Region Today An Additional 1 To 3 Inches Can Be Expected Over Much Of The Area With Isolated Higher Amounts Of 3 To 4 Inches Possible.

Expect Forecast Points In The Choctawhatchee River System To
Continue Spiking To Flood Stage Today.

Have Already Issued Flood Warning For The Shoal River At Mossy Head For Moderate Flooding.

Additional Flooding Is Ongoing In The Apalachicola River System At
Blountstown.

The Next Storm System Is Expected To Deliver Significant Rainfall
Across Much Of The Area With Average Amounts Ot 3 To 5 Inches With
Heavier Amounts Easily Possible.

With Flash Flood Guidance Essentially Less Than 0.5 Inches Per Hour In Portions Of The Forecast Area, Expect Flash Flooding To Be A Significant Concern Not To Mention The Added Impact This Rainfall Will Have On Area Rivers.

For The Latest River Conditions, Please Chcek Our Page On Our
Website.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 77 58 75 56 74 / 80 80 20 70 70
Panama City 73 57 72 59 72 / 90 80 20 90 90
Dothan 71 50 72 55 71 / 90 70 10 90 100
Albany 73 49 72 54 69 / 90 80 10 70 100
Valdosta 78 57 75 53 72 / 70 80 20 70 70
Cross City 79 62 77 56 77 / 40 70 40 60 50
Apalachicola 73 60 70 60 72 / 70 80 30 70 70

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...
Flash Flood Watch Through Sunday Morning For Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-
Washington.
Ga...
Flash Flood Watch Through Sunday Morning For Baker-Ben Hill-
Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...
Flash Flood Watch Through Late Tonight For Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
Henry-Houston.

Gm...
Dense Fog Advisory Until 11 Am Est This Morning For Apalachee
Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee
River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee
River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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