Dothan Area Weather Discussion Feb 2

Near Term [Through Today]...

Still Keeping Track Of The Freeze Warning Overnight And Early This
Morning, And A Few Asos Sites And Quite A Bit More Mesonet
Locations Have Already Dropped To 29 To 32 As Of Midnight.

With The Ridge Of High Pressure Off To Our Ne Nosing In, Winds Should Become Near Calm To Just Light Ne Over Much Of The Region Overnight Which Should Allow For A Long Duration Light Freeze Under Good Radiational Cooling Conditions.

In Fact, Some Of The Normally Colder Locations Could Approach Hard Freeze Levels (Below 26 Degrees For 2 Or More Hours), Which Would Be The First Time This Winter, So We Will Continue To Monitor Temps Very Closely.

For Now, Expect Any Pockets Of These Temps To Be Very Isolated,
And If This Is The Case, Would Not Upgrade To A Hard Freeze
Warning. For Today, After The Very Chilly Start, Expect Temps To
Moderate Into The Lower To Mid 60s By This Afternoon, With Most
Areas Just A Couple Of Degrees Below Climo.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The Quiet And Cool Weather Pattern Will Continue Throughout The
Short Term Period. A Clipper System Will Move Through The Southern
Appalachians Tonight. This System Will Have Little Or No Impact On
Our Area Other Than To Shift The Winds Back To Northwest For
Sunday Afternoon As Much Of The Colder Air Remains Bottled Up In
The Mid Atlantic States And Further Northward. Sunny Skies Are
Expected For Sunday With High Temperatures Generally In The Mid
And Upper 60s.

High Pressure Will Build Across The Southern States By Monday
Morning. With The High Pressure Nearby, Expect A Night Of Good
Radiational Cooling Conditions. At This Time, Much Of The Guidance
Indicates Low Temperatures A Degree Or Two Above Freezing.
However, Given The Pattern, There Is Potential For A Light Freeze
Across Mainly The Eastern Half Of The Forecast Area. Because This
Is Still A Ways Off, Will Not Be Issuing A Freeze Watch At This
Time.

After A Cool Start On Monday, A Moistening Trend Will Begin As
Southerly Flow Develops Ahead Of A Weak Wave Developing Across The Western Gulf. Mid And Upper Level Cloud Cover May Limit The
Afternoon Warm Up With Highs Only In The Low To Mid 60s Expected.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Nearly Zonal Flow Will Prevail Through The Extended Period With Most Of The Dynamic Impulses, Within The East Coast Trough, Remaining North Of The Local Area.

On Tuesday, A Piece Of Energy Will Make Its Way Far Enough South To Generate A Weak Wave Of Low Pressure In The Gulf.

The Area Of Low Pressure Will Move Rather Quickly East, And Primarily Affect Only Our North Florida Counties.

It Is Unlikely That This System Will Bring Much Rainfall Locally. We`ll Probably See Totals On The Order Of A Quarter To Half Of An Inch.

It Appears As Though Temperatures Will Run About 5 Degrees Above Average On Both Ends Of The Spectrum Through Thursday.

Aviation [Through 06z Sunday]...

Nearly Unlimited Vfr Conditions Will Continue At The Terminals
Though The Period With Light Winds. There May Be A Few Patches Of
Ci From Time To Time, But With Very Little Upstream, Removed Its
Mention For This Package.

Marine...

Winds Will Briefly Diminish This Afternoon Before Shifting To The
Northwest And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots Tonight.

This Moderate Offshore Flow Will Continue Into Monday When High Pressure Will Build Over The Water Resulting In A Period Of Light Winds.

Expect These Relatively Tranquil Conditions To Continue Into At Least The Middle Of Next Week.

Fire Weather...

With The Very Dry Air In Place Across The Cwa This Afternoon, Will
Continue The Red Flag Warning For Leon And Wakulla Counties In The Florida Big Bend (Where The Ercs Are Above 35), And Will Also
Upgrade Bay And Washington Counties In The Florida Panhandle As The Forecast Ercs Of 34 Are Too Close For Comfort And May Verify A Few Units Higher.

Also, With Right Around 4 Hours Of Sub-25 Percent Relative Humidity, Have Issued A New Red Flag Warning For Southeast Alabama.

On Sunday, Issued A Fire Weather Watch For All Of The Floria Big Bend And Panhandle For Sub 35 Percent Relative Humidity And Dispersions Greater Or Much Greater Than 75.

Hydrology...

No Significant Rains Are Expected Throughout The Forecast Period.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 62 37 67 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 61 47 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 61 41 64 36 63 / 0 10 0 0 10
Albany 61 37 63 32 62 / 0 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 63 37 65 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 66 34 68 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 60 43 67 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Freeze Warning Until 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/ This Morning For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland
Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.
Fire Weather Watch From Sunday Afternoon Through Sunday
Evening For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

Red Flag Warning From 11 Am Est /10 Am Cst/ This Morning To 7
Pm Est /6 Pm Cst/ This Evening For Coastal Bay-Coastal
Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.

Ga...

Freeze Warning Until 9 Am Est This Morning For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

Al...

Freeze Warning Until 8 Am Cst This Morning For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Red Flag Warning From Noon Today To 5 Pm Cst This Afternoon
For Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...None.


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