Dothan Area Weather Discussion Feb 16

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Widespread Hard Freeze And Hazardous Beach And Marine
Conditions Expected Over The Next 24 Hours...

Quite A Change In Store For The Weekend With Arctic Cold Front Now
Pushing Into Sern Al/Sw Ga Will Continue To Advance Across The
Area Today.

Have Backed Off On Pop Today, Although Very Light Rain Showers/ Sprinkles Can Be Expected In Band Of Clouds Accompanying The Cold Front.

Airmass Is Rather Dry, So Measurable Precipitation Is Not Going To Be Very Widespread.

Clouds Will Clear From West To East Starting In The Early Afternoon Over The Fl Panhandle/Sern Al.

Otherwise, Will Continue The Forecast Of A Rather Raw, Windy Day With Temperatures Maxing Out In The Lower 50s (Outside Of The Eastern Big Bend Where Highs May Touch 60f), Along With Gusty Northwest Winds.

Wind Speeds Will Increase In The Afternoon And Continue Into The Evening, Although Appears Winds Will Likely Remain Below Wind Advisory Criteria.

Overnight, Clearing Skies, Lightening Winds And Advection Of Cold Air
Behind The Cold Front Will Bring The First Hard Freeze Of The
Year And Perhaps Bring The Coldest Night Of The Season For Some Locations.

The Low This Winter At Tlh Was 26f On Dec 22, And The Current
Forecast For A Low Tonight At Tallahassee Is 24f. The Possibility
Of Some Patchy Frost Is Also Possible, But This Will Likely Only
Occur In Outlying Areas Across North Florida Where Winds Calm Near Dawn.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Sunday Will Feature Unseasonably Cool Afternoon Temperatures.

Undercut Mos Guidance By A Bit And Went Closer To Some Of The Raw Model Guidance. With Expected Mixing Heights Around 900mb, And Fairly Good Model Agreement With Respect To Mixing Height
Temperatures, Based Afternoon Highs On Forecast Soundings.

This Yields Highs Around 50 Degrees For Most Spots Varying A Few
Degrees From Northeast To Southwest With The Coldest Air To The
Northeast.

Sunday Night Will Bring The Possibility Of Another Hard Freeze.

The Main Difference Will Be The Temporal Resolution Of The Freeze.
With The Calm Ridge Center Expected To Only Scrape Our Eastern
Counties, The Hard Freeze Would Most Likely Remain Confined To The Southeast Big Bend Of Florida, Possibly Up Into Extreme South-
Central Georgia.

Frost Will Again Be A Possibility And Will Likely Be More Widespread In The Aforementioned Regions.

The Upper Trough Will Have Pulled Away From The Local Area On
Monday, And Will Be Replaced By A Low Amplitude Ridge.

This Will Help Rebound Afternoon Highs Substantially. Expect More Seasonable Temperatures, Around The Middle 60s Region-Wide.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Extended Period Looks To Feature A Fairly Amplified, But Still
Progressive, Mid-Upper Level Flow Pattern.

This Will Likely Mean Some Cold Front Passages In Relatively Quick Succession, But These Fronts Are Not Expected To Penetrate Very Far South In The Gulf.

The Consensus Of The Gfs And Ecmwf Places One Front On Tuesday, And Another On Friday.

Isolated Thunderstorms Were Added To The Weather Grids On Tuesday As Model Lis Dip To Around Neutral To -2c.

Temperatures Throughout The Period Should Be Fairly Close To
Seasonal Normals.

Aviation [Through 12z Sunday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Through The Period, Despite Some Light
Rain And Vfr Cigs That Were Beginning To Move Into Southeast Al From The Northwest.

This Cloud/Rain Band Will Produce Vfr Cigs (4-6k Ft) And Some Very Light Rain Until This Afternoon, When Drier Air Moves Into The Area From The West.

Strong Nw Winds Will Increase To 15 To 25 Kt, With Gusts Of 25 To 30 Kt By Mid To Late Morning, And Continue Through The Afternoon.

The Gusts Will End By Sunset, Followed By The Winds Gradually Tapering Off This Evening.

Marine...

A Strong Cold Front Will Pass Over Our Gulf Of Mexico Waters Today
With Winds And Seas Increasing To Solid Advisory Levels In Its
Wake.

Gusts Will Remain On The High End Of Advisory Criteria With A Few Gale Force Gusts Possible.

Winds And Seas Will Gradually Begin To Subside After Midnight Tonight, And Fall To Below Advisory Levels By Dawn Tomorrow.

Thereafter, A Couple Bouts Of Cautionary To Advisory Conditions Are Possible During The Week As A Few Weak Fronts Pass Across Our Waters.

Fire Weather...

This Is A Tricky Forecast, As We May "Technically" Meet Local Red
Flag Criteria In A Few Of Our Fl Counties Later This Afternoon.

Because It`s So Marginal, And Because We Expect Some Light Rain And Clouds This Morning And Into Early This Afternoon, And Because Of Strong Cold Air Advection, It Doesn`t Seem Like The Type Of Day
Where Fires Would Spread Rapidly (Even Though It Will Be Windy).

It Will Be Very Dry Sunday, But For Now It Appears That Other Factors
(Like Wind And Erc) Will Not Satisfy Local Ref Flag Criteria.

Hydrology...

Several River Forecast Points Are Still At Or Expected To Reach
Flood Stage Over The Next Couple Of Days Due To Routed Water From Upstream.

Most Notably, Bruce (Choctawhatchee River) Is Forecast To Near Major Flood Stage Late Tonight.

Elsewhere, Altha (Chipola River) Is Forecast To Reach Moderate Flood Stage, With All Other Rivers Points Forecast To Remain At Or Below Minor Flood Stage.

High Water Is Also Occurring Along Some Rivers And Streams In
South Central Georgia That Do Not Have Official Forecast Points,
Specifically Around Colquitt, Cook, And Berrien Counties.

For The Latest Stage And Forecast Information, Please Refer To Our
River Flood Warnings And Statements, Or Go To Our Ahps Site On The Internet, At:
Http:/Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 55 24 51 27 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Panama City 56 33 52 38 63 / 30 0 0 0 0
Dothan 51 28 50 31 64 / 40 0 0 0 0
Albany 52 26 49 28 64 / 40 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 54 25 49 26 64 / 40 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 25 51 23 65 / 20 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 58 31 52 36 62 / 20 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Hard Freeze Warning From 4 Am Est (3 Am Cst) To 9 Am Est (8 Am
Cst) Sunday For All Of North Florida Excluding Coastal Panhandle Communities.

Freeze Warning From 4 Am Est (3 Am Cst) To 9 Am Est (8 Am Cst) Sunday For Coastal Bay, Gulf, And Walton Counties.

High Rip Current Risk From 9 Am Cst To 9 Pm Cst For Gulf County Beaches.

Ga...

Hard Freeze Warning From 4 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For All Of
Southwest And South-Central Georgia.

Al...

Hard Freeze Warning From 3 Am To 8 Am Cst Sunday For All Of
Southeast Alabama.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory Until 7 Am Est Sunday For Gulf Of Mexico
Waters From Destin To The Suwannee River Out To 60 Nm.


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