Dothan Area Weather Discussion Evening Dec 2

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 18 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed The Persistent East-
West Oriented Ridge Along The Southeast Coast. Local Radars Have
Showed Occasional Light Showers In Our Forecast Area, But It`s
Doubtful They Have Produced Measurable Rain So Far. Vapor Imagery
And Upper Air Data Showed Fairly Zonal Flow Over Much Of The Conus (Except For The Strong Trough Off The West Coast), With The Jet Stream (And Storm Track) Pretty Far North For This Time Of Year.

A Few Light Showers Will Be Possible Until Sunset With The Moist
And Marginally Unstable Boundary Layer. Temperature Will Continue
Well Above Average (Lower 50s Inland, Mid 50s Beaches). The
Consensus Of High Resolution Nwp Guidance And Sref Suggest The
Potential For Fog Over Our Eastern Zones (Around Valdosta And
Madison), And Across The Fl Panhandle (Mainly West Of Panama City).

Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...

The Deep Layer Ridge Will Hold On Monday, Then Gradually Break
Down On Tuesday And Wednesday With The Approaching Cold Front. Our Recent Stretch Of Warm Weather Will Continue, With Highs Generally In The Mid To Upper 70s And Lows In The Lower 50s (Except Mid To Upper 50s Tuesday Night As The Fronts Draws Close And Clouds Increase).

Generally Fair Weather Is Expected Monday And Tuesday Due To Plenty Of Dry Air Aloft And A Lack Of Large Scale Upward Motion. However, As We`ve Seen The Past Couple Of Days, There May
Be Enough Boundary Layer Moisture And Instability For Brief,
Shallow Moist Convection During The Daytime Hours Where Mesoscale Forcing May Occur. Our Pop Is Only About 10% Each Day, But Some Trace Rainfall Amounts Are More Likely.

The Latest Model Runs Appear A Little Wetter Than In Previous
Runs, Most Notably The Ukmet. Even The Latest Mos Consensus Has Come In A Bit Wetter, So We Adjusted Our Pop Slightly Upward,
Mainly Over Our Northwest Zones Where There Will Be Better Q-G
Forcing. The Pop Over Our Southern Zones Is Still Quite Low.

Conditions Do Not Appear Favorable For Severe Storms, But A
Thunderstorm Or Two Cannot Be Ruled Out.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Next Sunday]...

The Pattern Is Expected To Remain Uneventful For The Local Area
Through The Long Term Period. Even The Weak System On Tuesday
Night/Wednesday Looks Very Weak Now With Pops Only High Enough To Mention (And Even Then Only 20%) Over The Northwest Parts Of The Area. The Few Areas That Are Fortunate Enough To See A Needed Stray Shower Are Likely Only Going To Receive A Few Hundredths Of An Inch.

A Similar Scenario May Unfold Again Over The Weekend With A Second Weakening System Approaching With Pops Barely Mentionable Over Portions Of The Area. Above Average Temperatures Will Continue To Dominant.

Aviation [Through 18 Utc Monday]...

Vrf Conditions Will Hold Into The Early Morning Hours Monday When
Clear, Calm Conditions Should Once Again Support Patchy Low Clouds And Fog.

Have Maintained A Few Hours Of Mvfr Conditions For A Few Hours Either Side Of Sunrise At All Sites, However Potential Exists For Some Ifr Cigs/Vsby If Conditions Deteriorate Enough.

By Mid Morning, Vfr Should Return To All Sites.


Winds And Seas Will Remain Unusually Low Through Much Of The Week, Despite The Expectation Of A Frontal Passage Late Wednesday.

Fire Weather...

Easterly Flow Is Expected To Keep Relative Humidity Values Above Red Flag Criteria For The Next Several Days.


Although There Appears To Be A Good Chance Of Rain Upstream Of
Our Local River On Tuesday Night And Wednesday, It`s Doubtful
There Will Be Any Significant River Rises Given The Low Qpf Amounts And Current Low River Stages.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 51 77 50 77 57 / 0 10 0 10 10
Panama City 57 75 57 74 61 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 52 77 53 76 59 / 0 10 0 10 20
Albany 51 78 53 77 57 / 0 10 0 10 10
Valdosta 52 76 52 76 56 / 10 10 0 10 10
Cross City 52 79 50 77 53 / 10 10 0 10 10
Apalachicola 57 72 57 72 58 / 0 10 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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