Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 8

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Mixture Of Dense Fog And Low Clouds Plague The Tri-State Region
This Morning.

Expect The Fog To Mix Out A Few Hours After Sunrise, But The Low Clouds Will Not Follow In Suit.

The Expected Trend Is For A Gradual Scattering, However, Clouds Will Likely Blanket South Central Georgia And Most Of The Florida Big Bend Through The Early Afternoon.

As A Result, Temperatures Will Be Kept In Check, But Likely Still Remain Above Average This Afternoon. The Current Forecast Shows Lower To Middle 70s In Locations Slow To Clear, And Middle To Upper 70s Elsewhere (Across Alabama And The Florida Panhandle).

Although The Chance Of Rain Is Very Low, And Any Rain Experienced
Will Likely Be Very Light, The Chance Does Exist For A Stray Shower Or To Later This Afternoon With The Passage Of A Very Weak Low To Mid Level Impulse.

The Best Chance For Rain Will Likely Remain West Of The Apalachicola River.

Tonight, Low Clouds And Fog Will Return. This Will Keep Overnight
Lows Moderated, In The Middle 50s For Most Spots Away From The
Coast.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Sunday Will Be Dry With Above Average Temperatures For Most
Locations, Lingering Cloud Cover Is Anticipated Once Again, But
Will Likely Remain Confined To Locations West Of The Apalachicola
River. In These Spots, Afternoon Highs May Hold In The Lower To
Middle 70s, While Upper 70s Are Expected Elsewhere.

On Monday, A Shortwave Passing Through The Southeast Will Bring A Cold Front To Our Western Doorstep And Begin To Increase Rain Chances, Primarily For Our Southeastern Alabama Counties And Portions Of The Western Panhandle Of Florida. Most Areas Will Still Experience Above Average Temperatures Through Monday.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The Extended Period Will Begin With A Broad, But Amplifying Trough
Encompassing The Entire Country And Pushing Atlc Seaboard Ridge Into Adjacent Waters. Embedded Within The Large Scale Trough Will Be A Series Of Shortwaves Expected To Cross Local Region Every Several Days And Play A Major Role In Timing And Amount Of Clouds/Rain.

One Shortwave Will Cross The Ern Gulf Coast States Through Monday Night, Producing A Large Area Of Low Pressure Across Gulf Of Mex And Fl Before Dampening And Exiting The Mid-Atlc Coast On Tues Morning. Ahead And Along Trough/Impulse, Moist Advection Of High Clouds, However, Most Guidance Shows Wave Shearing Out As It Approaches Local Region.

At The Surface, Low Canadian Maritimes With Cold Front Swwd To Sc Then Swwd Bisecting Local Area Being Kicked Ese By Trough And Impulses. Long Range Guidance Shows That Main Convection Will Be Relegated To Gulf Waters. Nam More Bullish But For 06z For Example At Tae Only Shows Surface Cape Of 800 J/Kg, And 0-1km Ml Cape Of 490 J/Kg So Chances Not High Of Surface Base Tstms Over Land.

Latest Guidance (Especially Slower Ecmwf Verifies) Hints At Surface
Wave Developing Over Or Just Off Carolinas At This Time Which Would Slow Down Or Even Stall Exit Of Front Beyond I-75 Until At Least Tues Eve Commencing A Prolonged Period Of Frontal And Post Frontal Rain Into Early Wed. Even If Rain Ends Earlier, As Upstream High Builds Sewd And Pushes Front Out, In Its Wake Post Frontal Clouds And Sprinkles Likely Persist Until H85 Trough Exits Early Wed, Especially Ern Counties.

Still Even With These Clouds, Caa Will Yield A Cooling Back Down To Seasonal Normals Thru Wed Night Before Temps Begin To Rise Again.

In Addition To Impact Of Front, Additional Mid Level Disturbances
Will Take A Similar Path Across The Gulf Coast States As Initial
Impulse Wed Through Wed Night And Another One Likely On Sat.

Models Not In Good Agreement On Timing Or Amount Of Rain, So Confidence Not High But Seem To Lean Towards The First Impulse Bringing A Good Chance Of Rain To Area Especially If Front Lingers, Then Kicks Carolina Low Out Into Atlc Dragging Front Well South Of Cwfa With Subsidence And Somewhat Drier Air In Its Wake Thurs Into Sat.

Then, The Last Impulse Appears Weaker With Only A Slight Chance Of Rain. But Even If They Are All Too Bullish, And Even With Somewhat Drier Air Overspreading Region, They All Reflect An Extended Period With Milder Nights And Cooler Days.

Will Go With Mid-High Sct Pops Mon Night Into Tues, Wdly Sct-Low Sct
Tues Night, Mid-High Sct Wed And Wed Night, Nil Pops Thurs Thru Fri
Night And Wdly Sct Pops On Sat.

Under Persistent Clouds Min Temps To Remain Around 10 Degrees Above Normal Thru Wed Night Dropping To 2-5 Degrees Above Normal Rest Of Period.

Max Temps Will Remain Around Normal Tues Thru Thurs Before Inching Up A Few Degrees Above Climo Fri And Sat. (Avg Inland Min/Max Is 41/64 Degrees).

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

Day Begins With Ifr/Lifr At Kecp/Ktlh/Kvld With Mvfr Elsewhere.

These Conditions Should Linger Thru 14z All Sites With All Terminals
Becoming Vfr By Mid Morning Thru Around 04z.

Then Mvfr Vsbys/Cigs Commence Again All Sites.

Then Expect To See Rapid Drop In Vsbys/Cigs To Ifr Then Lifr Near Sunrise All But Possibly Kecp And To A Lesser Extent Kdhn.

Marine...

High Pressure Will Allow Winds And Seas To Remain Calm Through The Weekend.

A Gradual Increase To Low End Cautionary Conditions Is Expected Beginning Monday And Lasting Through Monday Night With The
Approach Of A Cold Front.

Thereafter, Winds And Seas Will Remain Near Cautionary Levels As High Pressure Only Builds Slowly Into The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Behind The Front.

Fire Weather...

Rh Will Remain Above 35% Through At Least Tuesday, With Increasing Rain Chances On Monday And Tuesday, So The Fire Weather Concerns Are Minimal For The Next Four Days.

Hydrology...

River Stages Continued To Be Well Below Action Stage, And This Is
Likely To Continue Through At Least The Weekend.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 72 55 75 55 75 / 20 10 10 10 20
Panama City 70 61 72 63 74 / 20 20 10 10 30
Dothan 71 55 73 60 74 / 30 20 10 10 40
Albany 75 54 75 57 75 / 20 10 10 10 20
Valdosta 75 55 78 53 79 / 20 10 10 10 20
Cross City 73 57 77 51 76 / 20 10 10 10 30
Apalachicola 70 61 72 60 73 / 20 10 10 10 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 Am Est This Morning For The
Majority Of The Florida Big Bend.

Ga...Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 Am Est This Morning For South
Central Georgia.

Al...None.

Gm...None.


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