Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 7

Near Term [Today]...

During The Predawn Hours, Low Stratus Filled In From Ne-Sw And
Dominated Most Of Cwfa Except Portions Of Panhandle. This Has
Prevented The Development Of Fog.

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Has Deamplified In Last 12-24 Hrs. This Is Highlighted By Positively Tilted Trough Over Ca/Desert Sw, Becoming A Broad Nrn Stream Cyclonic Flow Newd Towards Montana, Weak Ridging Over Extreme Wrn Atlc And Shortwave Across East Coast Of Cntrl/Srn Fl.

At The Surface, A Ridge Of High Pressure East Of The Appalachian Mountains Continues To High Center Over Mid-Atlc Then Swwd Into The Florida Panhandle Bringing In A Moist Ne To E Flow From The Atlantic. An Inverted Trough Persists Just Off Ne Fl Coast And A Decaying Backdoor Front Over Mainly Ga Counties.

Stratus Across N Fl S/Cntrl Ga Will Continue To Expand Wsw Through Daybreak.

Looking Far Upstream, Slowly Moving Cold Front Across Srn Plains Will Be Our Next Weather Maker In The Extended Period.

During The Day, Broad Upper Trough Over Nrn Plains Will Dig Slowly
Swd While Sw Trough Moves Ewd Reaching Srn Plains. Inverted Trough And Wedge Down Appalachians Will Continue To Weaken While Front Then Dissipate As High Bridges It. Decaying Front And Assocd Clouds Will Help Keep Temperatures A Few Degrees Cooler Then Yesterday Afternoon, Especially Across S Ga.

Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The Primary Polar Jet Is Forecast To Remain Well North Of The
Forecast Area Through The Weekend, With Generally Zonal Flow To Weak Ridging Aloft With Modest Height Rises Along The Northern Gulf Coast. A Few Weak Impulses Will Ride Ewd Across The Zonal Flow But Have Minimal Local Impact.

As The Front Washes Out Tonight, Temperatures Return To The Mid And Upper 70s Area Wide.

Dry Weather Is Expected To Continue Through Sunday Daytime Before Rain Ahead Of The Next Front Begins To Make Its Presence Known.

Probably The Most Significant Concern Over The Next Few Days Will
Be The Potential For Dense Morning Fog.

Guidance Is Showing Higher Probabilities For Dense Fog Beginning Tonight, A Result Of The Relatively Moist But Stable Airmass Ahead Of The Front. Will Keep Areas Of Fog To The Forecast Grids For Tonight For This Reason. Would Expect At Least Isold Dense Fog And Latest Guidance Is Even More Pessimistic So Fog Will Need To Be Closely Monitored.

Long Term [ Sunday Night Through Next Friday ]...

The Extended Period Will Begin With A Broad, But Amplifying, Trough
Encompassing The Entire Country. Embedded Within The Large Scale Trough Will Be Several Shortwaves.

More Notably For The Local Area Will Be The Disturbance Positioned Over The Four Corners Region Sunday Night. It Will Move Across The Gulf Coast States Through Monday, Before Exiting The Mid-Atlantic Coast On Tuesday Morning.

At About The Same Time, Another Disturbance Will Also Position Itself
Over The Four Corners Region Before Taking A Similar Path Across The Gulf Coast States Through The Remainder Of Next Week.

At The Surface, The Effect From All Of This Will Be A Weakening Surface Ridge On Monday, Being Replaced With An Approaching Cold Front Likely To Pass Through The Local Area Some Time Monday Night Through Tuesday Morning.

There Is Much Less Confidence In The Forecast For The Remainder Of The Week, Related To The Second Disturbance Mentioned Above.

However, It Will Likely Result In A Gloomy Mid To Late Week Next Week, With A Possibility Of Disturbed Weather Through Friday.

Overall, This Pattern Will Be A Welcomed Change, Bringing A
Chance For Rain Several Days In The Extended Period.

Additionally, The Abnormal Heat Will Come To An End In The Wake Of The First System, Likely Bringing Temps Back Down To Seasonal Levels.

Aviation [ Beginning 09z Friday ]...

Low End Mvfr To High End Ifr Ceilings Will Continue To Spread
Southwest Through The Morning. Shreds Of Mid-Level Cloudiness Will Provide A Temporary Relief From The Ceilings As They Pass Overhead, However The Improvement In Restrictions Is Expected To Be Short Lived.

Low Ceilings Are Expected To Hold Through The First Half Of The Day, Not Returning To Vfr Until 18z For Most Sites, And Possibly
Remaining At Least Mvfr At Kvld And Kaby For The Majority Of The
Day.

Again, The Mid-Level Cloudiness May Have An Impact On This
Should It Break Up The Low Cloud Deck Enough This Morning To Allow For Open Pockets In The Stratus "Blanket" Providing An Opportunity For Better Low-Level Mixing And Earlier Clearing. Some Of This Uncertainty Will Be Resolved Shortly After Sunrise.

Marine...

High Pressure Will Remain Centered Well North And East Of The
Forecast Area Through The Weekend, Keeping Winds And Seas Well
Below Headline Criteria.

A Cold Front Will Approach The Waters Early Next Week, With Increasing Onshore Flow Ahead Of The Front, And Offshore Flow In Its Wake.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Will Remain Above Critical Levels For The
Foreseeable Future.

Thus, Red Flag Conditions Are Not Anticipated.

.Hydrology...

Rivers Are Expected To Remain Low Through The Period With Below
Average Rainfall.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 75 53 77 53 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 73 60 75 60 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
Dothan 71 53 76 55 77 / 10 10 20 10 20
Albany 71 53 77 54 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 73 53 78 55 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cross City 76 54 79 54 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 71 59 73 60 73 / 10 10 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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