Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 6

Near Term [Today]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Highlighted By Fast Quasi-Zonal Flow Across The West Half Of Conus, Main Trough Moving Ewd Across New England Into Canada, And A Well Defined Shortwave/H5 Vort Max Now Completely Detached From Trough And Clearly Seen On Water Vapor Imagery.

This Shortwave With A 573dm Low Was Located In The N/Cntrl Gulf (South Of La) Tracking Sewd Supporting Convection Along Its Ern
Periphery. At The Surface, Shortwave Earlier Developed Surface
Reflection Near Mouth Of Ms River.

Backdoor Cold Front Located From Wrn Atlc (East Of Carolinas) Swwd Across Srn Ga/Fl Panhandle Then Swwd To The Surface Low. Development Of This Surface Low (Wave) Has Caused Front To Largely Stall. North Of Front, Strong High Centered Over Pa And Swd Into Se Region.

During Today, The Upper Level Feature Will Continue To Shear Out,
Weaken And Track Southeast Towards S/Cntrl Fl Creating A Split Flow, Leaving The Surface Low And Frontal Boundary Behind. This Will Also Strengthen Wedge Down Spine Of Appalachians. Thus Assocd Convection Currently East Of The Delta And South Of Al Will Remain Sw Then S Of The Forecast Area.

Trough To Our West Bringing Mid And Upper Clouds While A Surge Of Low-Level Atlc Moisture Ahead Of The Wedge Bringing An Increase In Low Clouds And A Little Tighter Gradient From The East. All These Clouds Will Continue To Inhibit Fog Formation This Morning.

At The Same Time, Strengthening Wedge Will Begin To Push Backdoor Front Swd Later Today Towards Of Ne Ga Counties.

The Combination Of The Front, Tighter Gradients And Atlc Moisture Will Bring A Chance Of Rain Across These Ga Counties. This Reflected In Local Cam/ Confidence Tool And Wrf Which Also Show About 0.05 Inch Qpf. Models Imply That Low Will Dissipate And Become Absorbed Into Westerlies By Tonight. With Expected Clouds And Light Rain Went Several Below Both Gfs And Nam. Especially For Ern Counties.

Highs In The Low To Mid 70s.

Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

For Tonight, The Shortwave, Will Continue To Weaken As It Moves Into
S Fl. Dissipating Closed Low Will Move Off Fl Atlc Coast.

Under Split Flow Regime, The Cold Front Is Likely To Drift Swwd, Wash-Out And Evolve Into A Weak Surface Trough Along The Florida East Coast Into Friday. A Small Chance Of Mainly Evening Rain Remains Across The Ne Ga Counties.

Lows Will Be In The Low 50s North To Mid-Upper 50s Coast.

The Large Scale Conus Pattern Will Undergo A Slow Amplification
Thru Rest Of The Short Term.

Closer To Home, And In The Wake Of The Trough, Modest High Pressure Will Nose Down The Lee Of The Appalachians Into South Georgia Progressively Eroding Wedge And Loosening Local Gradient Beginning On Thurs.

This High Will Dominate Se Region To Beyond Short Term Period. This Evolution, Combined With The Primarily Zonal Flow Aloft, Will Keep The Weather Generally Dry And Warm, With Temperatures Well Above Normal For Early December, Especially On Saturday With High In The Mid To Upper 70s.

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Next Thursday]...

The Extended Period Begins With The Local Area Under The Influence Of Zonal Flow Aloft At The Leading Edge Of A Broad But Amplifying Trough.

By Late Weekend, Shortwave Energy Will Dive South Through The Plains, Amplifying The Trough Further. The Upper Trough Will Then Swing Through The Southeast Monday Through Tuesday Before
Transitioning Back To A More Zonal Pattern For Wednesday.

By Thursday, Upper Flow Will Amplify Once Again In Response To Another Shortwave Passing Over The Gulf Coast States.

At The Surface, High Pressure Will Remain In Control Through The Weekend With Negligible Rain Chances.

The First Of The Two Aforementioned Shortwaves Will Generate An Area Of Low Pressure Across The Midwest, Trailing A Cold Front South Through The Ohio And Mississippi Valleys.

This Front Will Pass Through The Tri-State Area Monday Through Tuesday Bringing With It A Decent Chance For Showers.

High Pressure Will Build In On Tuesday Afternoon, Ushering In A Brief Period Of Dry Conditions Before The Next Shortwave Brings Another Weather System Our Way Late Next Week.


Vfr Conditions Are Anticipated For Much Of The Taf. The Exception
Will Be Early This Morning Where Kvld Could Experience A Brief
Period Of Mvfr Ceilings Before Scattering Out Mid-Morning.

In Addition To The Mvfr Restrictions, Kvld May Also Catch A Brief
Shower Or Two Much Later In The Afternoon.

Elsewhere, A Mix Of Mid And High Level Clouds Are Expected With Light Winds Prevailing.


With Relatively Weak High Pressure Forecast To Remain In Place
Northeast Of The Area Through The Weekend, Light Easterly To
Southeasterly Flow Is Forecast To Continue.

Conditions Are Expected To Remain Below Headline Criteria Throughout The Forecast Period.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Will Remain Above Critical Levels For The
Foreseeable Future.

Thus, Red Flag Conditions Are Not Anticipated.


Rivers Are Expected To Remain Low Through The Period With Below
Average Rainfall.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 77 54 75 51 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 76 58 73 58 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 75 55 72 53 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 75 52 72 51 77 / 30 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 76 54 74 53 78 / 30 20 10 10 10
Cross City 77 53 76 52 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 73 57 70 57 72 / 10 10 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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