Near Term [Today]...
The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Highlighted By Ridging Over Wrn States, Nrn Stream Trough Over Ms Valley And Ridging Over Extreme Wrn Atlc. Strong Shortwave That Was Part Of Srn Portion Of Trough Is Moving Slowly Ese Over La/Nrn Gulf Of Mex.
Ahead Of Shortwave, Increasing Cyclonic Flow As Mid-High Clouds Continue To Stream Newd From Gulf Waters To Across Gulf Region.
As Shortwave Tracks Further Ewd, Downstream Ridge Will Continue To Slide Further Into Atlc. At Surface, High Off Mid-Atlc Coast With Axis Swwd To Across Fl Big Bend And S/Cntrl Ga. High/Axis Weakening With Approach Of Cold Front. Low Vcnty Que With Cold Front Swwd Thru Low Vcnty Memphis With Front Swd Across Ms/La And Into Wrn Gulf Waters. Shortwave Continues To Kick Front Ewd.
Ahead Of This Front,Local Airmass Quite Humid And Overnight Has Been A Battle Between Higher Level Clouds And Low Level Moisture, Very Light Winds And Radiational Cooling To Determine Extent Of Fog To Begin The Day. When High Clouds Move Over, Fog Thins Out In Both Depth And Coverage. Latest Obs Show Some Decrease In Clouds So Will Monitor In Case An Update Is Needed. For Now Grids Show Patchy Dense Fog Everywhere.
Models Differ Some On Front Solution But Either Way Its Local Impact Will Be Nil. The Upper Level Flow Is Largely Parallel To The Front And It Will Have Very Little Mid And Upper Level Support As The Shortwave Energy Should Be Focused Across Nrn Gulf Region While Primary Northern Stream Energy Remains Well To The North Across The
Great Lakes And Into The Northeast So It Is Not Expected To Make
Much Swd Progress Before Becoming Quasi-Stnry As It Further Weakens.
As Shortwave Approaches, Local Flow Will Become More Cyclonic And Should Be Able To Squeeze Out A Small Chance Of Showers Mainly Wrn Most Counties...Sprinkles Farther Ewd. With Tight Gradients Remaining To Our N/Ne Local Winds Will Remain On Low Side.
Ahead Of Front, And After Fog Burns Off,Temperatures Will Remain Warm With Highs Once Again Reaching The Mid And Upper 70s.
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
By Tonight, Upper Shortwave Over Ne Gulf Has Noticeably Weakened As It Moves Over Local Area And Front (Likely Backdoor) Moves Over Our Mainly Ne Ga Tier Counties For A Small Chance Of Rain Or Sprinkles. By Sunrise Thurs, High Pressure Begins To Bridge Across Decaying Front.
On Thurs, Subsidence Behind Departing Shortwave Will Provide For A
Strong And Expansive High Over The Midwest Which Then Shifts Ewd And Builds Down The Eastern Seaboard. However, Its Source Is Not Arctic So Dont Expect Sharp Drop In Temps. This High Dropping Swd Will Increase East To Northeast Winds Across The Eastern Portion Of The Forecast Area And Create A Wedge Along Appalachians That Locally May Bring An Area Of Low Clouds And A Small Chance Of Showers, Mainly Ern Counties, Which Would Hold Temps Down A Bit Over The East.
On Friday, Upper Pattern Will Show Broad Amplification Covering Most Of Conus. Any Remnant Of Front Will Try To Lift Nwd As A Warm Front Ahead Of Weak Approaching Upstream Trough. On Sat, Warm And Moist Flow Around Bermuda High Will Keep Max Temps Above Normal.
Long Term [Friday Night Through Next Wednesday]...
The Extended Period Begins Under A Rather Zonal Upper Level Flow
Regime. This Begins To Change On Sunday As A Short Wave Dives Into The Plains, Eventually Developing Into A Potent Trough Expected To Impact The Southeast Some Time Early Next Week.
At The Surface, Nearer To The More Sensible Weather, High Pressure Remains In Control Through The Weekend. This Coupling With The Zonal Flow Aloft, Will Provide The Local Area With Generally Dry Conditions And Warmer Than Average High Temperatures.
As The Upper Trough Amplifies And Moves East, The Ridge Will Be Shunted East As A Cold Front Approaches The Region. At This Time It Appears The Front Will Pass Through The Tri-State Region Through The Day/Night Monday, Likely Exiting Our Local Area By Tuesday Morning.
It Is Uncertain Just How Organized This Front Will Be, Or How Much Rain It Will Bring, But It Will Certainly Be The Best Chance For Rain We Have Seen In Quite Some Time. In Its Wake, Cooler Temperatures And A Return To Dry Conditions Are In Store.
Very Challenging Taf This Morning.
The Dissipation And Regeneration Of Upper Level Clouds Has Allowed Fog To Form In Some Locations And Not Others. At This Moment, Our Taf Sites Remain Restriction Free. However, Kecp And Kdhn Certainly Have The Potential, And The Best Chance Of Experiencing Ifr Conditions Before Dawn.
Elsewhere, At This Time Expect Mvfr Conditions (At Worst) Should The Upper Clouds Clear For Any Extended Period Of Time. Fog Will Quickly Diminish In After Sunrise And Vfr Conditions Are To Be Expected For The Remainder Of The Day.
Despite The Approaching Cold Front, The Pressure Gradient Is Expected To Remain Weak Today Over The Coastal Waters, With Minimal Winds And Seas.
High Pressure Will Build Into The Waters Thursday Night Into The Weekend, With An Increase In Easterly Flow. However, Conditions Are Still Expected To Remain Below Headline Criteria.
Relative Humidity Values Will Remain Above Critical Levels For The
Next Several Days. Thus, Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected
Through Early Next Week.
Rivers Are Expected To Remain Low Through The Period With Below
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 77 51 76 54 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 74 58 74 58 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 75 54 74 53 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
Albany 77 52 74 50 71 / 10 20 10 10 20
Valdosta 77 53 73 53 74 / 10 10 20 20 20
Cross City 77 50 75 52 77 / 10 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 72 56 72 58 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
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