Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Clouds Are Increasing Across The Area, Including Some Lower Clouds Underneath 5000 Ft. This Is Likely To Continue Through The Night, Particularly Over The Western Half Of The Area.
The Latest Water Temperatures Reported Were 58 At Panama City And 55 At Apalachicola - Notably Cooler Than A Couple Weeks Ago.
As Some Surface Dewpoints In The Mid-Upper 50s (Located Offshore, As Sampled By Some Of The Buoys) Begin To Advect Northward, Its Possible That We Could See Some Advection Sea Fog Develop Overnight West Of A Tlh-Bij Line, And Especially Along The Coast From Dts-Aaf.
Probabilities Of Less Than 1 Mile Visibility Are Fairly High In Se Alabama And West Of The Apalachicola River In Florida. For Now, We Just Added Patchy Fog To The Grids As The Statistical Guidance Was Less Aggressive With Fog Overnight.
More Cloud Cover Should Keep Lows Warmer Over The Western Half Of The Area (Low 50s Versus Upper 40s Further East).
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A Cold Front Will Slowly Sag Southeastward Towards The Forecast
Are Over The Next Two Days. With Southwesterly Flow Aloft And The
Primary Energy With The Trough Hanging Back Over The Southwestern States, The Precipitation Is Expected To Primarily Be Driven By Isentropic Lift And Situated Behind The Front.
For Tuesday, Expect The Front To Remain Northwest Of The Area
Until Late In The Afternoon, Thus Pops Will Remain Relatively Low
And Confined To The Northwestern Third Of The Area.
Temperature Forecast Is A Bit Tricky For Tuesday, With Statistical Guidance Differing By 6 To 8 Degrees On Forecast Highs (Mav Warmer Than Met). Southerly Flow On Tuesday Will Be Advecting A Relatively Moist Airmass Over The Cool Coastal Waters, Likely Leading To Significant Cloud Cover Over Much Of The Forecast Area. With This Expected Cloud Cover, Have Gone Closer To The Cooler Met Guidance On Tuesday.
By Tuesday Night, The Front Will Move Through The Region. However, The Initial Shortwave Will Push Quickly Northeast, Taking
Most Of The Dynamic Lift With It.
Therefore, Precip Coverage Is Only Expected To Be Scattered Through At Least Midday Wednesday.
By Late Wednesday Into Wednesday Night, Another Impulse Is
Forecast To Eject From The Western Trough And Advance Eastward.
This Should Push More Significant Coverage Of Rain Into The Region
For Wednesday Night.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The Period Starts With Zonal Flow Aloft And A Stationary Front Draped Across The Tri-State Region.
Rain Driven By Isentropic Ascent Will Increase In Coverage And Intensity Beginning Wednesday Night, Lasting Through Thursday.
Thursday Night, A Shortwave Trough Will Dive Through The Mississippi Valley And Into The Southeast By Friday Morning. The Mid/Upper Level Disturbance Will Act To Push The Once Stationary Boundary Through Our Region Bringing And End To The Rain.
High Pressure Will Quickly Build In And The Remainder Of The Period Will Likely Remain Dry.
Temperatures Will Remain Below Average During The Afternoons To
Start The Period, Increasing To Near Or Slightly Above Average By
Overnight Lows Will Start Off On Wednesday Night Above Average And Gradually Decrease To Near Average By Friday Night Through Sunday Night.
Aviation [Through 18z Tuesday]...
Although Low Clouds Have Been On The Increase This Afternoon,
Most Cigs Are In The Vfr Range As Of 20z.
These Ceilings Should Lower Into The Mvfr Range This Evening, Particularly At Ecp And Dhn.
Mvfr Expected Late Tonight And Into Tomorrow Morning At Most
Terminals, With Some Ifr Possible At Ecp And Dhn Later Tonight.
As High Pressure Slides Well East Of The Waters, Moderate
Southeasterly Flow Will Become More Southerly By Tuesday Morning.
Conditions Are Expected To Remain Just Below Headline Criteria
Until A Front Crosses The Waters On Wednesday.
Exercise Caution Or Advisory Conditions Will Then Be Possible Late Wednesday Into Thursday.
Conditions Are Then Forecast To Improve Into The Weekend.
Relative Humidity Values Will Stay Above Red Flag Criteria Through The Week.
The Next Low Pressure System, Which Is Expected To Consist Of A Series Of Weak Waves Moving Along The Gulf Coast For Much Of The Mid To Late Week Period, Could Provide Upwards Of 1 To 3 Inches Of Rain Across The Cwa. This May Cause Some Additional Minor Rises Along Area Rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 46 68 58 65 51 / 0 10 30 40 70
Panama City 55 70 58 63 51 / 10 20 40 50 70
Dothan 51 68 54 61 45 / 10 40 50 40 70
Albany 46 68 54 62 45 / 10 30 50 40 70
Valdosta 47 69 55 62 50 / 0 10 30 40 60
Cross City 45 70 55 71 57 / 0 10 20 30 50
Apalachicola 54 68 60 65 54 / 10 10 30 40 70
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