Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 30

Near Term [Until 7 Am Monday Morning]...

Surface High Was Centered Over The Tennessee Valley This Evening
With Light Northeast Wind And Thin Cirrus Over The Local Region.

We Are Still Expecting Marginal Conditions For A Light Freeze Mainly Along And East Of The River Tonight.

Will Nudge Min Temps Down A Degree Or Two Most Areas Based On Latest Mos Guidance And Current Temperature Trends But This Will Not Impact The Outline Of The Freeze Warning In Place.

(earlier) Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Marginal Conditions For A Light Freeze Are Expected Across A Large Portion Of The Area Tonight, Which Makes For A Tricky Forecast.

Most Low Temperatures Should Be In The Low-To-Mid 30s, But Minor Changes In Wind Speeds And Cloud Cover Could Be The Difference Between Actually Meeting Locally-Defined Freeze Criteria (At Least 2 Hours Of Low Temperatures Of 26 To 32 Degrees).

Water Vapor Satellite And Visible Satellite Both Indicate Increasing Moisture And Cirrus In The Upper Troposphere Upstream Over Texas And Louisiana. This Is Expected To Gradually Spread East Along The Gulf Coast Tonight, Which Could Influence Low Temperatures By A Couple Of Degrees.

Such An Effect Would Be Most Likely Over The Western Florida Panhandle And Southeast Alabama. Forecast Soundings Also Show An Increase In Rh Around 1000-2000ft Agl Late Tonight In Coastal Areas West Of Carrabelle, And The Sref Does Show Increasing Chances Of Some Low Ceilings In Those Areas.

Because Of The Combination Of Increasing Cloud Cover And Slightly Higher Forecast Wind Speeds, The Freeze Watch Was Cancelled Without A Warning Replacement For Areas West Of The Apalachicola River In Florida, And All Of Southeast Alabama Except Henry County.

Over The Remainder Of The Area, The Consensus Of Model Guidance Places Lows Around 30 Or 31 Degrees, Which Would
Meet Freeze Criteria. Therefore, A Freeze Warning Was Issued Away
From The Immediate Coasts - But It Should Be Emphasized That This
Is A Lower Confidence Forecast Than Normal.

With Increasing Low-Level Rh, Light Winds, And Widespread Lows Under 36, There Should Be Quite A Few Areas With Frost Tonight.

Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...

A Ridge Of High Pressure Over The Area (At The Surface And Aloft)
Will Slide East Of The Region On Monday, Allowing For Weak Return
Flow To Begin, Initially Over The Western Zones.

Several Pieces Of Energy Are Forecast To Eject Northeastward From The Mean Southwestern U.S. Trough Over The Coming Days. However, The Large-Scale Flow Is Forecast To Become A Bit Less Progressive, Which Will Lead To This Energy Primarily Shearing Out To The Northeast.

As A Result, Expect To See A Frontal Boundary Gradually Sag
Southward Towards The Region Through Tuesday Night. Southwesterly Flow Above The Surface (Enhanced By 160kt+ Jet Aloft) Will Generate A Primarily Post-Frontal Region Of Overrunning Precip.

This Precip Is Now Expected To Remain Mostly Northwest Of The
Forecast Area Until Late Tuesday Morning Or Tuesday Afternoon.
Thereafter, Pops Will Steadily Increase From Northwest To Southeast Through Tuesday Night.

Temperatures Will Gradually Moderate Ahead Of The Approaching Front, Getting Back To Near Seasonal Norms On Monday, And Rising Above Normal For Tuesday.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Period Begins Under Mostly Zonal Flow Aloft As A Mid/Upper
Level Shortwave Shears Out Across The Ohio Valley.

At The Surface, The Zonal Flow Aloft/Weakening Shortwave Will Have Allowed An Area Of Low Pressure And Attendant Surface Front To Become Quasi-Stationary Across The Southeast.

This Front Will Linger, And Bring Rain Chances To The Local Area Both Wednesday And Wednesday Night.

Overnight Wednesday A Weak Impulse Will Assist In The Development Of A Wave Of Low Pressure Along The Stalled Front In The Gulf.

On Thursday, A More Potent Shortwave Carving Through The Mississippi Valley Will Help Drag This Surface Wave/Front Through The Tri-State Area With Rain Likely Everywhere.

The Front Will Clear The East And Surface High Pressure Will Overspread The Region Beginning Late Thursday Night.

Dry Conditions Will Persist Through The Weekend.

Thunderstorms Or Severe Weather Are Not Anticipated.

Temperatures Will Remain Near Average, Or Slightly Below Due To
The Prolonged Period Of Cloudiness And Rain.

Aviation [Through 18z Monday]...

Vfr Expected With Generally Clear Skies Prior To 06z Monday,
Followed By Some Increasing High Clouds.

Ecp May See A Scattered Deck Around 2000-3000ft Develop Monday Morning.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Will Continue To Slowly Diminish Over The Next Day
Or Two As High Pressure Slides By To The North And A Slow Moving
Cold Front Approaches From The West.

Moderate Easterly Flow Will Shift To The Southeast Monday Afternoon And Then The South By Late Tuesday.

Offshore Flow Will Develop In The Wake Of The Front On Wednesday.

Conditions Are Forecast To Remain Below Headline Criteria Through Mid-Week.

Fire Weather...

A Red Flag Warning Is Still In Effect Until 6 Pm Est This Evening
For Some Of Our Florida Counties Where Low Rh Values Are
Coinciding With High Dispersions.

However, As The High Pressure Shifts Eastward Overnight, Rh Values Will Increase Again Through The Week And Rain Chances Will Increase Starting Monday Night In Southeast Alabama.

There Are No Red Flag Conditions Expected In The Forecast Period After Today.

Hydrology...

No Flooding Concerns Are Expected From The Recent Rainfall.

However, The Next Low Pressure System, Which Is Expected To
Manifest Itself Into A Series Of Weak Waves Which Will Traverse
Along The Gulf Coast For Much Of The Mid To Late Week Period,
Could Tally Upwards Of 1 To 3 Inches Of Rain Across The Cwa.

This May Cause Some Low To Moderate Rises Along Area Rivers, And Stages Will Be Monitored As The Week Progresses.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 32 63 47 72 55 / 0 0 10 10 40
Panama City 39 62 53 71 59 / 0 10 10 20 40
Dothan 32 59 48 70 51 / 0 0 20 40 60
Albany 31 63 46 70 52 / 0 0 10 30 60
Valdosta 31 65 46 69 53 / 0 0 10 10 30
Cross City 33 69 45 72 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 36 61 54 69 59 / 0 0 10 10 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Red Flag Warning Until 6 Pm Est /5 Pm Cst/ This Evening For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland
Walton-Lafayette-Leon-South Walton-Washington.

Freeze Warning From 4 Am To 8 Am Est Monday For Gadsden-Inland
Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-
Liberty-Madison.

Ga...

Freeze Warning From 4 Am To 8 Am Est Monday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

Al...

Freeze Warning From 3 Am To 7 Am Cst Monday For Henry.

Gm...None.


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