Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 29

Near Term [Today]...

By Midnight, Most Sites Had Reached Their Min Temps, Then As Warm Front Lifted Further North And Rain And Clouds Moved In, Temps Became Steady Before Beginning To Inch Up At Most Sites After 1 Am Est. With Most Rain Now East Of The Apalachicola River, Updated Pop/Qpf/Wx Grids To Reflect Same.

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Remains Amplified Yet Progressive. This Is Highlighted By Trough Over West Coast, Ridge Across Intermountain And Desert Southwest Area, Trough From Wrn Plains To Appalachians South Into The Gulf Region And A Ridge Ern Seaboard To Over Wrn Most Atlc. A Shortwave Assocd With Ern Trough Was Moving Across Lwr Ms Valley.

At Surface, A Wave Of Low Pressure Was Racing Newd Across Srn Al, A Cold Front Extended From This Wave Swwd Bisecting Local Area And Into The Gulf Waters. Warm Front Extended Sewd From Wave And Was Straddling Fl/Ga Border And Then Sewd Into N/Cntrl Gulf. Isentropic Ascent Was Increasing Over The Warm Front As The Dynamic Forcing Approaches From The West. A Freshening Low
Level Jet Will Continue To Transport Abundant Moisture Northward
From The Gulf.

As A Result, As Wave Moves Newd With Warm Front Lifting And Cold
Front Approaching, Showers And Isold Tstms,A Few Strong, Continue
Within Growing Local Warm Sector Along And Ahead Of Cold Front
Mainly Over Eastern Waters.

However, As Storms Moved Se Into Cooler Shelf Waters Of Apalachicola Bay, These Waters Limited Ewd Progression And Intensity Of Storms And Continue To Suggest That Maritime Tropical Air Will Have A Hard Time Moving Beyond Coastal Counties Creating Surface Based Convection. Radar Trends Also Indicated Gusty Winds With Any Heavier Showers.

For The Rest Of The Overnight Hours Into Sunrise, This Should Result In Pops Near 100 Percent Se Quarter Of Our Cwfa. Then Rain Exits Quickly With 0-40% Nw-Se Pop Gradient Until After Sunrise, Then Slight Chance Rain Ern Counties Til Late Morning.

The Progressive Nature Of This System Should Keep Rainfall Totals In Check. We Are Looking For A Half To 2/3 Of An Inch In Most Areas.

During Rest Of Today, The Ern Upper Trough Will Move Across The
Mid-Atlc And New England Regions Before Moving Offshore Overnight.
Surface Wave/Low Will Move Into Ern Carolinas This Morning Then
Deepens Offshore This Aftn As Trough/Shortwave Move Over It. Warm
Front Will Continue To Lift Newd With Wave Currently Across Our Area
While Trailing Cold Front Moves Across Local Area This Morning. Sct
Shwrs And A Few Weak Tstms Will Accompany Cold Front Impacting
Mainly Se Third Of Our Area This Morning. Again Weak Instability And
Lapse Rates Will Negate Good Shear Profiles. The Speed Of This
Weather System Should Negate Any Flooding Concerns.

Cold Front Will Exit By Mid-Morning.

In Its Wake, A Continental Airmass Will Slide Ese Bringing Noticeably Cooler And Drier Conditions Over The Region From Nw-Se. However, Upstream Obs Show A Broad Area Of Post-Frontal Stratus So Clearing Will Be Slow From W-E, Mainly Delayed Until Mid To Late Aftn.

A Fairly Strong Pressure Gradient Sets Up Between Departing Cold Front And Building High Pressure Over Srn Plains. Thus We Expect Gusty Nw Winds That Will Make Seem Colder Than It Really Is. In Fact, Cold Air Advection In Wake Of Front Combined With Low Stratus Will Suppress Afternoon Highs And Generate Blustery Conditions, Especially Wrn Counties Where Highs Will Be The Low To Mid 50s As Opposed To The Mid To Upper 60s Closest To Departing Front. I.E. Se Big Bend.

Although Gusts Will Exceed 20 Mph In Some Sites Not Enough To Justify A Wind Advisory At This Time, But Bears Watching.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

For Tonight, With A Cold Airmass And Decoupling Winds, There Is High Confidence That All But The Se Big Bend Will See A Freeze.

Local Confidence Tool Places Highest Probabilities (100%) Across Nw Third Of Our Area Down To Nil Chances Across Se Big Bend. Guidance Shows That Caa Should Be Strong Enough To Offset A Slight Breeze As High Remains To Our Nw.

Freeze Watch Remains In Effect For All But The Se Big Bend From 07-14z Sunday. This Watch Will Likely Be Upgraded To A Warning Later Today.

Wind Chills Are Likely To Be In The 20s Across Much Of The Area, And Perhaps Isolated Upper Teens In Se Alabama So A Wind Chill Advisory May Also Be Issued Later Today For This Area.

On Sunday, High Will Build North Of The Region With Ridge Likely
Extending From Appalachians Down To The Nrn Gulf Of Mex. So Expect Another Cool Day With Highs In The Low To Mid 50s To Be Followed By Another Chilly Sunday Night, With The Potential For Yet Another More Limited Freeze As High Pressure Becomes Centered Over The Southeast. Local Confidence Tool With 70% Chance Of Freezing Temps Nrn Tier Ga Counties Down To Zero Coastal Panhandle Counties.

On Monday, Next Upper Trough To Move From Rockies Ewd To Ms Valley By Nightfall. This Will Help Shift Local Surface High Ewd With
Veering Winds Ahead Of This The Next Weather System. As A Result,
Temps Will Begin To Rise To The Low To Mid 60s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Next Saturday]...

The Period Is Forecast To Begin With Zonal Flow On The Toes Of An
Approaching, Weak, Shortwave Entering The Southern Plains With High Pressure Just Beginning To Break Down At The Surface.

As The Shortwave Grazes The Gulf Coast, Surface Cyclogenesis Will Commence, And The Entire System Will Move Into The Southeast On Wednesday. It Will Take Another Shortwave Developing In The Southern Plains Early On Thursday To Completely Clear Out The Remnants Of The Aforementioned System As Another Surface Low And Attendant Front Pass Through The Tri-State Area Thursday Through Early Friday.

Instability Will Be Greatly Lacking With Both Systems And Only
Showers Are Expected.

Near Average To Slightly Below Average Temperatures Are Expected To Dominate The Extended Range Forecast.


Showers Have Come To An End At All Terminals.

Ceilings Will Bounce Between Ifr And Mvfr For The Next Hour Or So Before Stabilizing To Mvfr Restrictions For All Terminals Through The First Part Of The Day.

Thereafter, It Is Likely That All But Kaby Will Scatter To Vfr.

Kaby Will Take A Bit Longer And Will Likely Have At Least High End
Mvfr Ceilings For Much Of The Day.

The Only Other Concern Will Be Gusty Wnw Winds. Expect Gusts Between 25 To 30 Knots Early, Falling To Around 20 Knots Later In The Afternoon.

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Overnight Tonight.


Latest Forecast Winds Show 20-Kt Winds Spreading Across Wrn Legs And Beginning To Impact Eastern Legs, So Advisory Remains In Effect For All The Waters.

A Winds Shift Was Already Occurring As A Cold Front Crosses The Marine Area. Offshore Winds And Seas Should Then Stay Elevated For Much Of The Weekend With Seas Peaking At 8 Feet At The
Offshore Buoys.

Winds And Seas Will Drop Below Headline Criteria By Sunday Evening And Then Gradually Veer To Onshore Once Again For Early Next Week.

The Next Cold Front Is Forecast To Cross The Waters Tuesday Evening.

Fire Weather...

Although Relative Humidity Values Will Be Below The "Critical" 35%
Mark For North Florida On Sunday, Erc Values Are Currently Forecast
To Be Very Low (For Saturday At Least).

Thus If This Remains Constant, Red Flag Criteria Will Not Be Met.

Beyond Sunday, Relative Humidity Values Will Climb Above 35% Relieving Any Red Flag Concerns.


No Flood Concerns Expected From The Recent Rainfall.

One Half Inch Rainfall Forecast Tonight Will Help Keep Flows Up A Bit On The Smaller Creeks And Streams Some Possibly Reaching Action Stage In The Upper Drainages.

Meanwhile Routed Flow Down Stream Continues To Generate Minor Rises On The Lower Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee And Withlacoochee Rivers.

Nothing Significant Is Happening On The Chattahoochee Or Apalachicola Rivers From The Recent Rainfall And Nothing Significant Is Expected With The Recent Rainfall.

All Other Drainages Including The Suwannee River Are Pretty Much Flat.

Models Continue To Indicate A More Significant Rain Event Around
New Years That Might Last A Day Or Two. Though The Amounts Do Not Look Enough To Generate A Flood Event, This Could Be A Welcome Rain Across The Drought Affected Areas.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 62 31 55 31 66 / 20 0 0 0 10
Panama City 59 35 55 40 65 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 54 28 52 33 62 / 10 0 0 0 10
Albany 56 28 54 30 64 / 20 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 62 31 54 32 66 / 30 0 0 0 0
Cross City 67 32 57 33 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 63 35 55 41 64 / 20 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Freeze Watch From Late Tonight Through Sunday Morning For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-

Ga...Freeze Watch From Late Tonight Through Sunday Morning For
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-

Al...Freeze Watch From Late Tonight Through Sunday Morning For

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Apalachee Bay
Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River
Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee
River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

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