Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 25

...A Tornado Watch Is In Effect Until 10 Pm Cst For All Of Se Al,
The Fl Panhandle And The Adjacent Waters...

Latest Meso-Analysis Shows That Surface Low Was Moving From Ar
Newd Towards Tn Valley. As A Result, Warm Front Has Lifted Into
S/Cntrl Al/Srn Ga Placing All Of Local Area In The Warm Sector (With
Dew Points In The Mid 60s) As Noted By Large Pressure Falls Just
North Of This Front. This Has Placed Our Area In A Destabilizing And
Very Favorable Environment With Strengthening Llj Moving Ewd. A N-S
Convergence Appears To Have Developed From The Coastal Waters Well South Of Destin Nne Towards Wrn Walton, Wrn Geneva And Cntrl Coffee Counties In Se Al. Tornadoes Continue To Develop Along This Line Moving Nne 30 To 35 Mph. All This Is Occurring Well Ahead Of A Potent Squall Line Moving Across Se Most La.

Recent Guidance Show That Deep And Low Level Shear Have Increased Noticeably In Last Few Hours. Tornadoes Warnings Have Been Issued For Various Sites Across Walton, Geneva, Coffee And Dale Counties.

A Tornado Watch Remains In Effect For All Of Se Al, The Fl Panhandle
And The Adjacent Waters Until 10 Pm Cst.

This Is Just Leading Edge Of What Will Be A Very Active Next 12-18
Hrs. Latest Wrf Run Has Vigorous Squall Line Moving Across Dothan At 1am Est (Midnight Cst) And 3 Am Est Across Tallahassee. Rap13 And Model Sounding For Dothan At 06z Show The Following Indices:

A)Ml Cape 275, B) 0-1 Km Shear 45kts, C)0-6km Shear 70 Kts D)0-1km Helicity 520, E)0-3km Helicity 600, F)Brn Shear 175 M/S, G)700-500 Mb Lapse Rate 6.7, H)500 Mb Wind 70kts, I)850mb Wind 65 Kts, J)Lcl 1455 Feet And K)Lfc 4018 Feet. All These Variable Reflect A High Potential Of Severe Wx And A Good Chance Of At Least A Few Tornadoes. Much Will Depend On How Linear Squall Line Sets
Up (Damaging Winds Vs Tornadoes). Indices Are More Stable Downstream But Still Reflect Decent Chance Of Severe Wx.!

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

19 Utc Regional Mesoanalysis Shows The Surface Low Continues To
Deepen Over Western Louisiana Now Down To 998 Mb. The Warm Front Has Continued To Slowly Lift Northward Across Southern
Mississippi/Alabama And Then Dropping Southeastward Along The
Florida-Georgia Border. Observational Data From Offshore Buoys And
Oil Platforms Are Showing A Large Reservoir Of 65+ Degree Dewpoints Over The North Central Gulf Of Mexico. This Very Moist Airmass Will Continue To Be Advected Inland And Eventually Even Move Into The Florida Panhandle And Southeast Alabama Later This Evening.

Further East, Observational Data Around Apalachee Bay Show That
Greater Destabilization Will Be Required This Evening To Further
The Severe Weather Threat - But In This Particular Case, The
Kinematics Are So Strong, That Only Marginal Instability Would Be
Needed.

So, The Set Up Looks To Be Coming Together As A Strong Jet Rounds The Base Of A Potent Upper Level Low Moving Into Southern
Arkansas. 0-6km Deep Layer Shear Values Will Approach 75 To 80 Kts At Times Across The Southeast And Into Our Region Late Tonight.
Low Level Shear Will Be As Equally As Impressive With 0-1 Km Shear
Values Of 30 To 40 Kt.

Within Our Area The Best Area Of Overlap Of Sufficient Instability
/Sbcapes Of 500-750 J/Kg/ And Strong Wind Shear Is Clearly Across
The Florida Panhandle, Into Southeast Alabama, And Far
Southwestern Georgia. It Is Within This Area That There Is A Likely
Chance Of Significant Severe Weather Activity Tonight. While
Discrete Supercellular Convection Cannot Be Ruled Out Within This
Zone (In Fact - A Couple Of Mini-Supercells Are In Progress 40mi
South Of Destin At 20z), The Most Likely Threat Appears To Be
Destructive Straight Line Winds With The Squall Line. Wind Gusts
With The Line Could Easily Exceed 60 To 70 Kts.

Further To The East Into South Central Georgia And The Florida Big
Bend, The Stabilizing Influence Of Apalachee Bay Will Likely
Diminish The Intensity Of The Squall Line Somewhat - But The
Current Thinking Is That Even Though The Predicted Sbcapes Drop
Off To About 200-400 J/Kg That The Strong Kinematics Will Overcome
The Marginally Unstable Airmass And Sustain Severe Level Wind
Gusts Along The Squall Line Through The Predawn Hours While
The Squall Line Approaches Interstate 75.

Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

As The Upper Level Jet Moves Eastward, Pushing The Front Through Our Area Wednesday, Expect A Rainy Morning Across The Eastern Portions Of Our Area, With Rain Chances Decreasing Throughout The Day.

Wednesday Will Be Cooler Than We`ve Been Seeing Lately, With High Temperatures In The Lower To Mid 50s In Southeast Alabama,
Increasing To The Southeast To The Mid 60s Ahead Of The Front Where Cloud Cover And Precipitation Will Still Be Present Throughout The Day.

After The Front Clears Our Forecast Area, A Much Cooler, Drier Air Mass Will Enter The Region. Within This Air Mass, Wednesday Lows
Are Expected To Dip Into The Lower To Mid 30s Across The Region.
Thursday Will Be Dry With Mostly Clear Skies In The Wake Of The
Front, But Cooler With High Temperatures In The Upper 40s To Lower
50s Across The Area. Thursday Night Lows Will Be In The Lower 30s.

Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A Progressive Pattern Will Remain In Place Through The Period
With The 25/00z Gfs And 25/00z Ecmwf Agreeing That The Next Rain
Maker Will Move Into The Area On Saturday. This System Currently
Does Not Look Nearly As Impressive In Terms Of Convective
Potential As The System We Are Dealing With Now, And The Official
Forecast Only Carries A Slight Chance Of Thunder Close To The
Coast.

For The Most Part, Temperatures Are Expected To Be Within A
Few Degrees Of The Seasonal Averages, Except Cooler Than Average Thursday Night As Weak High Pressure Temporarily Builds In From The North.

Aviation...[Through 12z Wednesday]

Areas Of Reduced Visibilities And Low Cigs To Lifr Levels Will Continue Today In The Vicinity And North Of A Warm Front That Stretches Across South Alabama And South Georgia.

As This Warm Front Lifts Northward, Visibilities And Cigs Will
Improve To Mvfr Levels In Areas South Of The Front. Strong Convection Is Expected To Develop Across The Area, Some Of Which
Could Be Very Severe Over Night.

The Main Period Of Strongest Activity Is Expected Across The Area Tonight Between 06z To 12z Along A Fast Moving Windy Squall Line Ahead Of A Rapidly Moving Cold Front.

Winds Will Shift Sharply From Southerly To Westerly Behind This Front.

Marine...

Increasing Onshore Winds Out Ahead Of A Formative Strong Low Pressure System Off To Our West, Will Result In Small Craft Advisory Conditions Progressing From West To East Across Our Coastal
Waters This Afternoon And Evening.

Then, As A Very Powerful Squall Line Develops Out Ahead Of The Approaching Cold Front Tonight, Gale Force Winds (Or Frequent Gusts) And Seas Will Overtake The Marine Area, With Even Stronger Winds In The Vicinity Of Any Thunderstorms.

These Gale Conditions Will Linger For A While Out Of The West
Behind The Cold Front During The First Half Of Wednesday, Before
Slightly Diminishing Back To Advisory Levels Out Of The Northwest
Into Wednesday Night.

Fire Weather...

There Are No Red Flag Concerns For The Next Several Days With
Wetting Rain On The Way.

Hydrology...

Much Of The Region Is Expected To Receive An Additional 1 To 2
Inches Of Rainfall During The Next Few Days.

This May Cause Some Minor Rises Along Area Rivers, But Due To Low Flows In Area Basins, No Significant Rises Are Expected At This Time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 60 64 34 52 33 /100 30 10 0 10
Panama City 56 62 38 52 43 /100 10 10 0 10
Dothan 50 55 32 49 33 /100 10 10 0 10
Albany 54 59 31 50 32 /100 30 10 0 10
Valdosta 58 63 34 52 32 /100 90 10 0 10
Cross City 58 67 36 56 32 /100 100 10 0 10
Apalachicola 61 65 39 53 46 /100 20 10 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...High Surf Advisory From 7 Pm Est /6 Pm Cst/ This Evening To 7
Pm Est /6 Pm Cst/ Wednesday For Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-
South Walton.

Ga...None.

Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 7 Pm This Evening To 1 Am Est
Wednesday For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton
Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20
Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20
To 60 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory From 1 Pm Wednesday To 1 Am Est Thursday
For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To
Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To
60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60
Nm.

Gale Warning From 1 Am To 1 Pm Est Wednesday For Apalachee Bay
Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River
Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee
River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Pm Est This Evening For Coastal
Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters
From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

Gale Warning From 10 Pm This Evening To 1 Pm Est Wednesday For
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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