Near Term [Tonight]...
During Rest Of Today Into Tonight, H5/H2 Trough Across Se Region.
Assocd H5 Shortwave Responsible For This Afternoons Storms Will
Continue To Exit Newd Reaching Coast Around 02z Taking Bulk Of Rain With It Resulting In Its Wake In Some Brief Subsidence And Enhanced Ridging Over Local Region. This Will Yield A Brief Lull In The Weather.
At Surface, Tn Valley Low Will Ride E Then Newd Towards New
England Into Tonight. This Will Serve To Drag Trailing Cold Front
Into Wrn Gulf Coast Becoming Stationary And Even A Quasi-Warm
Boundary And At Same Time Allow Meso Low To Lift Newd With Warm
Front Also Lifting Newd Towards Local Area.
This Combination Will Help To Continue To Moisten The Local Airmass And Increase Sly Flow Overspreading Local Region.
Sct Shwrs And Isold Tstms Will Linger Across Mainly Nrn Most Tier Of
S/Cntrl Ga This Eve.
The Next Batch Of Moisture Recommences Towards Morning As Low Pivots Newd And Isentropic Lift And Convection Commences Ahead Of Lifting Warm Front From Sw-Ne.
Nam And Latest Cam More Bullish Than Gfs In Bringing Rain To Our Wrn Areas. Local Confidence Tool Leans Towards Drier Solution While Wrf Shows Mainly Coastal Showers Moving From Panama City Newd Thru Berrien County Ga Overnight. Will Lean Towards Wrf Solution. Will Go With 40-20% Nw-Se Pop Gradient. With More Clouds And Rain, Will Tweak Up Pre-Dawn Lows To Low To Mid 50s.
In Wake Of Shortwave, Breaks In Clouds, Ample Low Level Moisture And Lingering Very Light Rain Will Favor Reduced Visibilities Especially Wrn Area Where Subsidence Will Be Greatest. So Will Keep Fog In Grids Ern Counties After 06z.
At The Area Beaches Overnight, Increasing Onshore Flow Will Continue To Favor A High Risk For Rip Currents Along The Panhandle Coast, With A Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents At The Big Bend Beaches.
Short Term...[Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]
Complex Scenario Set To Evolve Throughout The Short Term Period With The Potential For A Multi-Faceted Severe Weather Threat. All Of This Is Prefaced With The Fact That We Are Still Discussing A Weather Event That Is 24 To 48 Hours Away, So There Are Still Some Of The Subtleties That The Larger Scale Models May Not Resolve Very Well.
24/12z Guidance Continues To Be Relatively Consistent With The
Evolution Of The System As It Moves Into The Mid South On Christmas
Day. The Nam Remains A Slow Outlier And Is Generally Discounted From A Timing Perspective With The Main Squall Line.
The Gfs Continues To Be Generally On Pace With Previous Runs, Though Slightly Faster This Cycle.
Essentially, Rapid Cyclogenesis Is Expected Tuesday Morning In Response To A Strong Upper Low Moving Through The Red River
Valley. As The Low Moves Quickly East, Wind Fields Will Quickly
Accelerate Increasingly Moist Inflow Into The South Setting The
Stage For A Significant Severe Weather Threat From Louisiana
Eastward To Florida.
While The Synoptic Setup Is Nearly Ideal For A Severe Weather
Outbreak, Some Negative Factors Still Exist And Continue To Be
Resolved Poorly In The Global Guidance.
Instability Is Always The Big Question Mark This Time Of Year With Severe Weather Events. The Past Model Runs Seem To Overlay Nicely With The Best Instability Likely Occurring Along The I-10 Corridor Between New Orleans And Panama City And Perhaps Extending Inland 75 To 100 Miles.
Depending On The Model Used, This Instability Reaches Significantly Further Inland - Or Stays Entirely Offshore. Thus While Confidence Is Very High That Wind Shear /0-6km Deep Layer Shear Of 75kt/ Will Be More Than Sufficient For Organized Severe Weather With This System, Overall Confidence Is Only Average With The Severe Weather Potential Because Of The Instability Question.
So...For Tuesday...We Expect That A Few Showers And Thunderstorms Will Be Ongoing Near The Beginning Of The Period As The Warm Front Retreats Back Northward. Hi-Res Guidance Indicates That During The Tuesday Morning And Early Afternoon Period That There Could Be Some Supercelluar Activity With This Frontal Boundary As It Retreats Northward Through The Area. This Threat Would Most Likely Be Confined To The Florida Panhandle And Into Southeast Alabama. For Areas Further East, Forcing Is Less Established (And Likely More Stable Anyway).
A Couple Of Hours After The Warm Front Exits The Picture, The Threat
For Organized Severe Weather Will Likely Diminish As The Lack Of Any Deep Layer Convergence Will Make Storm Development Difficult. So, We May See A Lull In The Action Tuesday Afternoon Before We Ramp Up Again Tuesday Evening.
Tuesday Evening Through The Overnight...The Weather Will Begin To
Deteriorate Again As A Strong Squall Line Approaches From The West Just Ahead Of The Cold Front. Hi-Res Output From Our Local Wrf Show Wind Gusts Easily Greater Than 50kt With The Strongest Storms. But, Hi-Res Output Also Shows A Distinct Weakening Trend As The Squall Line Moves Into Southern Georgia And The Florida Big Bend, Possibly Due To The Storm Inflow Stabilizing The Near Surface Environment Due To The Cool Shelf Waters Over Apalachee Bay.
Wednesday...The Squall Line, Likely In A Weakening Configuration
Should Clear East Of I-75 By Mid Morning With Good Weather Expected Thereafter.
So To Summarize, The Severe Weather Potential Is More Likely In
Southeast Alabama And The Florida Panhandle With A More Conditional Threat Due To Questionable Instability Up Into Southern Georgia And The Florida Big Bend.
Long Term [Thursday Through Next Monday]...
The Significant System In The Short Term Will Be Exiting The Area To Start Of The Long Term. In Its Immediate Wake, A Drier And Cooler Airmass Will Advect Into The Region. However, A Progressive Pattern Is Forecast To Continue With Both The 24/00z Gfs And 24/00z Ecmwf Showing Another System Affecting The Area Late Friday Night Into Saturday.
Depending On The Track Of The Low, Some Portions Of The Area Could See Isolated Convection, But This System Currently Does Not Look As Impressive As The One Before It. Temperatures Are Expected To Moderate Some By Late In The Week Ahead Of This System And Then Cool Again Behind It.
Aviation...[Through 18z Tuesday]
Mainly Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail With Southwest Winds
Around 10 To 15 Knots Developing During The Day With Gusts A Bit
Higher. In Wake Of Passing Upper Level Disturbance, There Will Be A
Relative Lull In Weather Tonight.
The Greatest Chances For Rain And Any Storms With Gusty Winds Will Be Around Aby During Late Eve Into Overnight, Then Across Ecp Towards Morning.
Mvfr Cigs In Fog And Light Rain Will Commence Around 08z With Possible Ifr Cigs Developing Near Sunrise.
Prevailing Rain And Chc Tstms Will Overspread Region From Sw-Ne After 12z And Continue Well Beyond 18z.
Expect Mvfr Cigs With Brief Ifr Cigs/Vsbys And Very Gusty Winds In
Any Heavier Rain Or +Tsra.
Rh Values Are Expected To Remain Well Above Red Flag Criteria Thru
No Fire Wx Is Anticipated At This Time.
Cautionary Conditions Will Diminish Briefly Overnight Before Rapidly Increasing To Advisory Levels On Tuesday.
Conditions Will Further Deteriorate Tuesday Evening With Gale Force Gusts Likely At Times In Addition To The Potential For Severe Weather With The Squall Line.
As The Front Moves Through The Marine Area On Tuesday Night And Wednesday Morning Winds Will Shift To Offshore And Remain At Advisory Levels Through The Day.
Winds And Seas Will Finally Diminish On Thursday As High Pressure Builds North Of The Waters.
Much Of The Region Is Expected To Receive Between 1 And 2 Inches Of Rainfall During The Next Few Days (Except Around 0.5" Over
The Se Fl Big Bend). This May Cause Some Minor Rises Along Area
Rivers, But Due To Low Flows In Area Basins, No Significant Rises
Are Expected At This Time.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 54 72 62 66 37 / 30 40 80 80 0
Panama City 61 71 63 63 38 / 30 60 90 30 0
Dothan 55 70 60 60 34 / 40 70 100 40 0
Albany 52 70 62 62 33 / 30 70 90 80 0
Valdosta 51 70 60 64 37 / 30 30 50 90 0
Cross City 52 72 61 70 41 / 20 20 40 80 0
Apalachicola 60 70 65 67 38 / 30 50 90 60 0
Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 7 Pm Tuesday To 1 Am Est Thursday
For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory From 11 Am Tuesday To 1 Am Est Thursday
For Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20
Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.
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