Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 15

Near Term [Rest Of Today]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Progressive Yet Rather
Amplified, Especially In The Nrn Stream. This Is Highlighted By
Mean Wrn Trough And Two Shortwaves Traversing Belt Of Cyclonic Flow Within This Trough.

The Lead And Potent Shortwave Shearing Out With Assocd 542dm Low Over Mo/Ia Border This Morning While Second Shortwave Rounding The Base Of A Broad Trough Over Nv.

East Of Initial Shortwave Is H5 Ridge With Axis From E/Cntrl Gulf To Cntrl Great Lakes. Satellite Imagery Shows That Lead Short Wave Beginning To Flatten Downstream Ridge, But With Minimal Impact On Our Local Weather. Closer To Home, A Few Weak Shortwaves Across Srn Al And Cntrl Ga Increasing Mid To High Clouds As Well As Squeezing Out A Few Light Showers Over Nrn Tier Counties Of Al And Ga.

At Surface, Ridge Of High Pressure Continues To Dominate Local
Region Bringing A Ne Flow To Ern Counties, And More Sly Flow
Elsewhere. Weakening Coastal Trough Was Noted Offshore. Further
Upstream, Low Over Mo With Cold Front Ssw Thru Ar And Ern Tx. Where Ne Flow Prevailed, A Wedge Like Stratus Cloud Deck Dominates Local Area Making Temp Forecasts A Little Tricky. Still 12z Tae Aob Shows Only 0.77 Inch Pwat. There Will Be A Mix Of Clouds And Sun Today, With Highs Reaching The Upper 60s To Lower 70s Coolest Ern Counties (Which Is Slightly Above Average). Wdly Sct Patchy Very Light Pops/Qpf/Sky Updated For Wdly Sct Pops 1st Pd For Ga/Al Counties.

During The Rest Of Today, Lead Srn Stream Shortwaves Will Move Ewd And Away From Area. Lead Nrn Stream Ia Shortwave Will Continue To Move Newd And Weaken Considerably. Second Shortwave Will Pivot Ewd Reaching Nrn Az This Eve. Yet Another Shortwave Will Move Ewd Across Nrn Baja This Eve Eventually Phasing With Az Shortwave Over Tx Around Sunrise Sun. All This Will Serve To Further Depress Downstream Ridge.

At Surface, Low Will Move Rapidly Newd To Srn Mn Around Sundown With Trailing Cold Front Moving Slowly Sewd. Rapid Movement Of This Front Will Not Begin Until Sunday When Phasing Shortwave Acts To Push It Ese.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The Vigorous Shortwaves Will Continue To Translates Ewd Across The Plains And Great Lakes Region Within The 500 Mb Flow. This Will Lead To The Development Of A Progressive Longwave Trough Over The N/Cntrl Plains On Monday And Increasing Deep Layer Gulf Return Flow.

Lead Shortwave Will Approach Local Region Sun Aftn. Meanwhile
Upstream Shortwaves, Will Generate Cyclogenesis Over Ok Panhandle Sun Morning With Low Advancing Newd To Oh River Valley On Monday And Drag Cold Front Ese.

Initially Mid-Upper Flow Will Be Parallel To The Cold Front...Thus Slowing Out Down But This Soon Changes And Front To Approach Our Area Mon Eve With Assocd Moisture (Moderate Isentropic Lift) Beginning To Impact Local Area Sun, Especially Nw Zones.

Pwats Will Have Increased At 00z Mon To 1.57 At Dhn And 1.25 Inches At Ktlh. Strong Sw Flow Ahead Of Front/Trough Will Likely
Eliminate Chances Of Any Fog/Stratus Mon Morning. In Wake Of Front,
Drier Air On Nw To N Flow Will Advect Into The Region As Surface
High Pressure Builds Into Nrn Gulf With Clearing Skies Expected Mon
Night Or Early Tues From Nw-Se.

Pop Will Begin To Increase Sunday Afternoon Across Our Northwest
Zones (30-40% At Dothan And Albany), Then Increase Across The
Remainder Of Our Region On Monday (50% Pop Across The Region). We Have Seen An End (For Now) To The Chilly Daytime Temperatures Of The Past Few Days, As We Expect Highs In The Lower To Mid 70s And Lows In The 50s.

Our Objective Analysis Scheme Of The Various Forecast Severe Weather Parameters Forecasts A 5% Chance Of Severe Storms Within 25 Miles Of A Point On Monday. Certainly The Expected Mid Tropospheric Wind Speeds Near 70 Kt Is Impressive. Also, Forecast Instability Parameters Like Mid Layer Lapse Rates, Sbcape, And Li Dont Appear To Be As Weak As What We Normally Observe This Time Of Year.

Yet The Gfs, Nam, And Ecmwf All Forecast A Substantial Weakening Trend Of The Convective Band (Qpf & Omega Fields) As It Moves Into Our Forecast Area. With All The Nwp Guidance Forecasting A Weakening Trend Like This, It Appears Unlikely That We Will Get Widespread Severe Storms. Given The Lack Of Strongly Veering Winds With Height, And Less-Than-Impressive 850 Mb Wind Speeds For This Time Of Year, The Main Threat From Any Severe Storms That Do Develop Would Be Marginally Damaging Straight Line Wind Gusts And/Or Hail.


Winds Will Veer From East Later Today, To South On Sunday As A Cold Front Approaches From The Northwest. Despite The Approaching Front, Advisory Conditions Are Not Expected (Though Exercise Caution Conditions Are Possible Late Sunday Night And Monday).

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

Conditions Were Vfr Last Night Except Briefly Mvfr With 3mi Vsby At Kecp And Lifr With 3/4mi Vsby 100 Ft Cigs At Ktlh. Conditions Raised To Vfr After 09z At Both Kecp And Ktlh. However Near Sunrise Lifr/Mvfr Cigs Developed At Ktlh And Kvld. All Of This Will Clear Out Around 15z As Daytime Heating Kicks In. Conditions Will Remain Vfr The Rest Of The Forecast Period Through Tomorrow Morning.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Is Expected To Remain Above Critical Levels
Through At Least Wednesday.


Some Of The Local Rivers Have Risen Rather Sharply Over The Past Few Days In Response To The Widespread, Beneficial Rainfall From A Few Days Ago. However, These Rivers Were Well Below Action Stage, So No Significant Impacts Are Expected.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 71 54 74 61 75 / 0 10 20 30 50
Panama City 69 59 72 64 74 / 0 10 30 30 50
Dothan 69 53 69 61 73 / 0 10 40 40 60
Albany 68 52 70 60 75 / 10 10 30 50 60
Valdosta 70 55 74 60 75 / 10 10 10 30 50
Cross City 73 56 75 58 76 / 10 10 10 10 40
Apalachicola 66 58 71 64 73 / 0 10 20 20 50

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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