Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 12

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Quasi-Stationary Front Was Analyzed At 06z Across North-Central
Florida Southwestward Into The Central Gulf Where A Weak Wave Was Developing.

Local Radars Show A Large Area Of Light To Moderate Rain Which Covers Most Of Our Cwa West Of A Line From Near Valdosta To
Perry Due To Isentropic Lift. The Rain Is Rapidly Spreading To The Northeast As The Overall Area Slowly Translates To The East.

Water Vapor Imagery Shows A Shortwave Currently Moving Through The Southern Plains. The Shortwave Is Forecast To Track Across The Gulf Coast States Today And Then Deamplify As It Lifts Into The
Carolinas By Daybreak Thursday.

As The Shortwave Passes Through Tonight, Rain Will Be Ending From West To East With The Surface Front And Deep Layer Moisture Exiting To Our South And East.

In The Meantime, Pops Will Be Near 100% Today For All But The Extreme West And Northwest Zones Where Pops Will Range From Likely To Categorical.

For Tonight Until Around Midnight, Pops Will Be Tapered From Nil-Silent 10% West Of The River And Slight (20%) To Likely (60%) East.

Most Areas Will See Max Temps Today Only In The Lower To Mid 50s Due To The Overcast And Rainy Conditions. Min Temps Tonight Will Generally Be In The Lower To Mid 40s.

Short Term [Thursday Through Friday]...

A Drier Airmass Will Move Into The Region Behind The Exiting

However, The Low Level Cloudiness May Be Slower To Clear The Local Region Than What The Models Are Indicating. If We See Lingering Overcast Conditions, It Will Be Difficult To Reach Our
Forecast Max Of Around 60 With The Cold Air Advection In Place.

Min Temps Thursday Night Will Be Just Under Seasonal Norms In The Upper 30s To Around 40.

The Gradual Warming Trend For Our Weekend Begins Friday With Max Temps In The Mid To Upper 60s Under Mostly Sunny Skies.

Long Term [Friday Night Through Next Wednesday]...

This Should Be An Active Period With Several Systems Impacting The
Gulf Coast States.

Overall Mid-Range Model Consistency Has Been Poor And Therefore Confidence In This Forecast Is Below Normal.

It Will Start Out Pleasant Enough With The Forecast Area Under The Influence Of Deep Layer Ridging. This Will Keep Us Warm Through The Weekend With Highs In The Low To Mid 70s Both Days And Only Slight Rain Chances.

The Initial Front To Approach The Area Was Progged By The Current Gfs And 12/12z Run Of The Euro To Stall North Of The Area. The New Euro Blows It On Through.

Either Way, The Next System Will Follow Closely. Whether This Manifests Itself As Another Frontal Passage Per The Gfs Or As A Gulf Low Coming Ashore (Per Euro) Remains To Be Seem. We Do Show Somewhat Higher Pops For The Sunday Night Through Tuesday Time Frame, But Details Will Have To Await Better Model Consensus.

It Does Look Like The System Will Be East Of The Area By Wednesday With Dry And Windy Weather To Follow For The Middle Of Next Week.

Aviation...[Through 06z Thursday]...

After An Initial Period Of Vfr With Mid Level Ceilings, Prevailing
Conditions During Most Of This Taf Cycle Will Feature Light Rain
With Ifr/Mvfr Bkn-Ovc Ceilings And Mvfr Visibilities.

The Best Chances For Extended Periods Of Ifr Will Be At Ecp, Tlh And Vld With Mvfr Generally Expected Further North. It Should Be Noted That Little To No Improvement Is Expected During The Daylight Hours.

An End To The Precip Is Noted During The Evening Hours, Although Low Ceilings Will Persist.


Cautionary Conditions Across The Western Legs This Morning Will
Briefly Drop Below Headline Criteria This Afternoon Before
Increasing To These Levels Across The Entire Marine Area Tonight.

Otherwise, Moderate North To Northeast Flow Will Be In Place Across
The Waters Through Friday.

Then Winds Will Gradually Veer From East To South Friday Night And Over The Weekend As The Next Cold Front Approaches The Local Waters.

There Will Be Occasional Surges In Winds And Seas To Cautionary Levels Friday Into The Weekend But At This Time No Small Craft Advisory Conditions Are Expected.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Is Expected To Remain Above Critical Levels
Through Much Of The Next Week.


No Significant River Rises Are Expected. However, Some Locations In
The Florida Big Bend Could See Around 1 Inch Of Rain With A Storm
System Moving Through Today.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 56 44 60 39 68 /100 30 0 0 0
Panama City 55 44 61 44 67 /100 10 0 0 0
Dothan 52 39 60 39 64 / 60 10 0 0 0
Albany 54 40 60 38 65 / 90 30 0 0 0
Valdosta 55 45 59 40 66 /100 60 0 0 0
Cross City 65 48 65 43 71 /100 40 0 0 0
Apalachicola 57 45 59 44 66 /100 20 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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