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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Dec 11

Near Term [Through Today]...

An Amplified Long Wave Pattern Persists Across North America This
Morning With A Trough Dominating Much Of The Continent And Ridges Off Both Coasts. A 130-Kt 300-Mb Jet Streak Over Il And In Is Moving Through A Broader Jet Stream On The East Side Of The Trough. Meanwhile, Short Wave Energy Is Diving Southward Across The Rockies Toward The Base Of The Trough.

At The Surface, A Cold Front Is Working Its Way Slowly East Across The Forecast Area. 07z Surface Analysis Showed The Front Extending Roughly From Macon Ga To Panama City Fl. Radar Has Shown Little If Any Precipitation Associated With The Front Over The Past Few Hours.

We Will See The Front Move Slowly Across The Eastern Portions Of The Region Today, Reaching The Suwannee River By Around 18z. It Should Be Noted That We Generally Favored The Somewhat Slower Nam With The Progression Of This Front. We Are Concerned About Another Round Of Dense Fog Out Ahead Of The Front This Morning. Several Hi-Res Guidance Members And The Sref Probabilities Support This. However, There Has Been Little Indication Of This In Surface Obs Or Fog/Stratus Ir Satellite Imagery As Of 07z. Only Thomasville Has Seen A Significant Vsby Reduction. For This Reason, We Will Leave Just A Generic Mention Of Fog In The Grids For Now And Monitor Obs.

There Will Only Be Subtle Forcing For Ascent Today As Some Weak
Impulses Move Overhead In The Southwesterly Upper Level Flow. Pops Will Be In The Slight To Low Chance Range For Light Rain.

There Will Be Plenty Of Clouds Today, Even Behind The Front. This Will Combine With The Cooler Airmass Arriving Behind The Boundary To Produce Noticeably Cooler Temps This Afternoon. Areas Northwest Of An Albany To Panama City Line Will Not Get Above 60. Only The Southeastern Fl Big Bend Will See Temps Reach The Lower 70s.

Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

As The Short Wave Energy Reaches The Great Plains, The Entire Long Wave Trough Will Begin To Deamplify And Move Eastward. The Primary Vort Lobe Will Reach The Lower Mississippi Valley By 12z Wednesday And Move East Across The Forecast Area Wednesday Evening. The Right Entrance Region Of The Upper Jet Will Settle Over The Region As The Dpva From The Approaching Short Wave Arrives. This Should Set Up Some Decent Qg Forcing Over The Region By Late Tonight And Through Wednesday.

The Vast Majority Of The Forecast Area Will Simply See Some Much Needed Rainfall With Greatest Qpf Coming From 06-21z. Pops
Are In The Likely Range During This Time And These Numbers May
Eventually Be Raised To Categorical. Storm Total Qpf Is Expected To
Remain Below An Inch. We Will Also Mention Isolated Elevated
Thunderstorms Over Dixie And Lafayette Counties On Wednesday.

The Abundant Cloud Cover And Long Periods Of Rain Will Keep Temps Quite Chilly Wednesday Afternoon, Especially Considering How Long It Has Been Warm. Areas North And West Of Perry Will See Highs Only In The Mid 50s. This Will Be About 10 Degrees Below Normal And The Coolest Afternoon Readings Since Mid November.

The Upper Forcing Will Move East Of The Area Wednesday Night And Rain Chances Will End. Lows Will Get Back To Normal Levels With Lower 40s In Most Areas.

However, Parts Of Southeast Al And The Inland Fl Panhandle Will Drop Into The Mid To Upper 30s And Patches Of Frost In The Coldest Areas Cannot Be Ruled Out.

Sunshine Should Return For Thursday And That Will Help Daytime Temps Moderate To Near Normal Levels With Lower 60s Northwest To Upper 60s Southeast.

Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

A Very Progressive Pattern Is On Tap With Two Low Pressure Systems Expected To Impact The Area During The Extended Period.

Deep Layer Ridging With Dry Conditions On Friday Will Quickly
Weaken And Move East Making Way For The Approach And Passage Of A Cold Front Over The Weekend. The Front Will Be Weakening As It
Pushes Across Our Fa As The Deepest Moisture And Best Upper
Support Staying Well To Our North.

Prospects For Rain Over The Weekend Will Be In The Lower End Chance Category. Models Now Show A Clear Frontal Passage All The Way Down The Peninsula Sunday Night With Dry Conditions Locally Through Monday Before Another Opportunity For Rain Arrives Tuesday As A Deep Low Pressure System Is Forecast To Develop Over The Lower Mississippi Valley.

The Surface Low Is Forecast To Track Eastward From Northern
Mississippi Monday Night To Just Off The North Carolina Coast By
00z Wednesday. Meanwhile, With The Strong Upper Low Forecast To Be Positioned Over South Georgia Tuesday, We Would Expect Overcast, Breezy And Much Colder Conditions. Would Like To See More Run To Run Consistency Before Trending The Forecast In That Direction.

For Now We See Temperatures At Or Above Seasonal Levels Through
The Extended Period.

Aviation [Beginning 08z Tuesday]...

All Showers Have Diminished Ahead Of A Cold Front Which Is Slowly
Tracking Eastward Across The Tri-State Region Early This Tuesday
Morning. The Front Has Pushed East Of Dhn And Ecp As Of 08z And Will Pass The Remaining Taf Sites By 13z.

Winds Will Shift To The Northwest Around 10 Kt In The Wake Of The Front. There May Be A Period Of Ifr Conditions In Fog At Tlh And Vld Ahead Of The Front.

Otherwise, Ifr Cigs Will Be Common At All Sites Through Most Of The
Morning With Mvfr Cigs Likely By Afternoon.

Rain Will Return To The Region By This Evening And Went With Prob30 Groups At All Sites.

Marine...

The Cold Front Will Only Gradually Work Its Way Across The Marine
Area Today And May Take Until Around Sunset To Finally Pass
Completely Southeast Of The Waters.

Winds Will Shift To Offshore Behind The Front. Speeds Are Generally Expected To Remain Just Below Cautionary Levels. However...Brief Periods Just Above Criteria Will Be Possible From Tonight Through Thursday Night.

Winds Will Veer To Onshore Once Again By This Weekend And May Reach Cautionary Levels On Sunday As The Next Front Crosses The Region.

Fire Weather...

No Fire Weather Concerns At Least Through Wednesday.

Drier Air Will Filter Into The Region Toward The End Of The Week But Lower Temperatures Should Keep Minimum Afternoon Relative Humidities Above Critical Levels.

Hydrology...

River Stages Will Continue To Be Well Below Action Stage. Expected
Rainfall Should Only Cause Minor Rises At Best.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 65 48 55 42 64 / 20 50 70 30 10
Panama City 62 48 55 44 63 / 30 60 70 20 0
Dothan 57 43 54 38 63 / 20 50 50 20 0
Albany 60 44 56 41 62 / 20 50 60 30 10
Valdosta 67 48 56 43 63 / 20 40 70 30 10
Cross City 73 54 63 46 68 / 30 40 70 30 10
Apalachicola 65 51 58 45 62 / 30 50 70 20 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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