Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The Long Wave Pattern Across The U.S. This Morning Features A Large Positively-Tilted Trough Dominating Much Of The Nation With A Ridge Off The Southeast U.S. Coast And Another Off The West Coast. A Short Wave Is Moving Through The Base Of The Trough And Is Moving Out Across The Southern High Plains.
Surface Analysis Shows A Cold Front Extending Southwestward From Low Pressure Over The Great Lakes Across The Lower Ohio And Mississippi Valleys To Southern Tx. Showers And Thunderstorms Precede The Front From Ky Southwest To Coastal Tx.
Closer To Home, Dense Fog Has Developed Over Roughly The Southeastern Half Of The Forecast Area Including The Eastern
Marine Legs. Even Though Visibilities Have Been Erratic, The Dense
Fog Advisory Will Remain In Place.
The Short Wave In The Base Of The Trough Will Weaken As It Lifts
Rapidly Northeastward Today To The Vicinity Of The Eastern Great
Lakes By This Evening.
The Cold Front Will Arrive In Southeast Al By Around 00z And Then Move Slowly Across The Forecast Area Through The Night.
Pops Today Will Be Highest In The Northwest And Southeast Corners Of The Forecast Area And Taper To A Minimum From Roughly Aaf-Tlh-Vld.
Specifically They Will Be In The Likely Category Over Our Far Northwestern Zones And Then Taper To Silent 10s For Our Northern Fl Big Bend And South Central Ga Zones. The Hi-Res Cam Guidance And Global Models All Show Additional Convection Developing Over The Northeast Gulf Of Mexico And Moving Into Our Eastern Big Bend Zones, So Pops Increase In That Direction Up To As High As 50 Near The Mouth Of The Suwannee River.
Concerning Severe Weather Potential, There Will Be Plenty Of Deep Layer And Low Level Shear. 0-6 Km Bulk Shear Will Be About 50-60 Kt. The Limiting Factor Will Be Instability. Cape In Excess Of 500 J/Kg Is Limited To Marine And Coastal Areas In The Gfs, Although The Nam Brings These Higher Capes Inland Across The Fl Panhandle Into Southeast Al. Spc Maintains This Area In A 5% Risk Area For Severe Storms.
While An Isolated Strong To Severe Storm Cannot Be Ruled Out Across The Western Zones, We Feel The Best Chance For Any Severe Storms Will Be Over The Southeast Fl Big Bend. Some Of The
Cam Guidance Even Shows Some Super Cell Structures Developing
There. This Is A High Degree Of Uncertainty In This Development,
Especially If Morning Fog Takes Longer Than Anticipated To Lift To
Stratus And Scatter. This Will Likely Be The Last In A Long Series
Of Warm Afternoons With Most Areas Climbing Well Into The 70s Once Again After The Fog Lifts.
Lows Tonight Will Drop Into The Mid To Upper 40s Across Our Northwestern Zones Behind The Front, But Only Make It To The Lower 60s Over The Eastern Fl Big Bend Where The Front Will Likely Take All Night To Reach.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
Another Short Wave Will Move Into The Base Of The Long Wave Trough Over The Southern Plains On Tuesday. This Time Though, The Energy Will Move East Across Dixie As The Upper Level Pattern Deamplifies. The Vort Lobe Will Cross Our Forecast Area On Wednesday.
Tuesday Will Be A Sharply Cooler Day Than We Have Seen Yet This Month Across The Northwestern Half Of The Forecast Area. Temps Will Be Held In The 50s Northwest Of An Aby-Pfn Line. Dpva Ahead Of The Vort Lobe May Provide Enough Lift For Some Post-Frontal Rain And Pops Are Generally In The 30-40% Range.
Highest Pops Associated With This Feature Will Be Tuesday Night (Roughly 50). Rain Chances Will End From West To East Wednesday Afternoon. However, Temps Will Be Below Normal, Generally In The Upper 50s To Lower 60s During The Afternoon Hours.
Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...
The Shortwave And Surface Cold Front Will Be Exiting To Our East
Wednesday Night With Deep Layer Ridging And A Very Dry Airmass
Filtering Into The Region Thursday.
The Mid/Upper Level Ridge Flattens Friday With Zonal Flow Over The Weekend. Meanwhile The Surface Ridge Centered Over The Mid-Atlantic States Friday Pulls Away Into The Western Atlantic As The Next Low Pressure System Moves Out Of The Central Plains And Into The Ohio Valley On Saturday.
This Low Is Forecast To Move Off The New England Coast Early Sunday With The Southwest Extending Cold Front Sweeping Across The Local Area Late Saturday Through Sunday. Low Level Moisture Quickly Returns To The Region Friday Into Saturday As Winds Gradually Veer From East To South. A Deeper Return Of Moisture Can Be Seen On Forecast Soundings And Time Height Cross Sections Late Saturday Into Sunday Bringing Chances Of Rain Back To The Cwa.
The Front May Stall Over Or Just South Of The Florida Panhandle Late Sunday Before A Wave Develops On The Boundary Monday Nudging The Boundary South And East Of Our Fa By Late Monday.
Temperatures Will Be Near Seasonal Levels Thursday With Above Seasonal Temps Friday Through The Remainder Of The Period.
Aviation...[Through 06z Tuesday]
Fog And Low Cigs Continue To Develop Rapidly In The Very Moist Boundary Layer. Lifr Conditions Have Been Occurring At The Tlh Terminal Since Late Sunday Evening And We Expect Ifr/Lifr Cigs/Vsbys To Blanket Most Of The Tri-State Region By Daybreak.
Shortly After Sunrise Southerly Winds Will Increase In The 5 To 10 Kt Range To Help Disperse The Fog And Bring All Terminals To Vfr Conditions By Late Morning To Early Afternoon.
Winds Will Increase Slightly And Veer To The Southwest By
Afternoon As A Cold Front Approaches. Scattered Showers And
Possibly A Few Thunderstorms Ahead Of The Front Will Begin To
Impact The Dhn And Ecp Terminals This Afternoon And The Remaining Terminals This Evening.
Light To Moderate Onshore Winds Will Shift To The West Overnight And Eventually To The Northwest Across The Western Legs With The Passage Of A Cold Front.
Offshore Winds Will Then Continue Through Tuesday And Tuesday Night.
At This Time, It Appears Than Winds Speeds Will Reach Cautionary Levels From Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Morning.
No Fire Weather Concerns Until At Least Wednesday When Very Dry Air Filters Into The Region Behind A Cold Front.
River Stages Will Continue To Be Well Below Action Stage. On Average, 1/2 To 3/4 Of An Inch Of Rainfall Is Expected Across The Area
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 76 59 68 51 60 / 10 20 30 50 50
Panama City 76 55 61 48 62 / 30 30 40 50 40
Dothan 76 49 54 41 61 / 50 50 40 50 30
Albany 77 52 60 43 59 / 30 40 40 50 40
Valdosta 77 59 69 50 59 / 10 20 30 50 50
Cross City 76 62 73 55 64 / 40 40 40 50 60
Apalachicola 73 59 67 51 60 / 20 20 30 50 50
Fl...Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/ This Morning For
Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
Ga...Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 Am Est This Morning For Baker-Ben
Gm...Dense Fog Advisory Until 9 Am Est This Morning For Apalachee
Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee
River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee
River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.
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