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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 9

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Tonight, Unseasonably Warm Conditions Will Hold With Lows Early
Wednesday Morning Mostly In The Upper 50s To Lower 60s Under Clear Skies.

Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The Short Term Period Will Begin With A Fair And Warm Day On
Wednesday, With Highs Climbing Into The Middle 80s Away From The
Coast, As Sfc And Upper Level Ridging Hold On For At Least One More Day.

Clouds Will Be Increasing With Very Mild Temperatures On Wednesday Night, With Lows In The Lower To Mid 60s With Increasing Return Flow Off The Gulf Of Mexico Out Ahead Of The Next Low Pressure System.

For Thursday And Thursday Night, All Eyes Will Be To The West As The Next Low Pressure System Approaches The Cwa.

Spc Has Already Outlooked Our Region With A Slight Risk For Severe Weather, With Even An Enhanced 30% Percent Chance For The Western Half Of The Cwa.

However, It Is Still A Bit Uncertain Whether All Of The Ingredients Will Come Together To Give Us Severe Weather (Instability, Kinematics, And Dynamics), So Am Not Ready To Put Any Severe Storms In The Grids At This Time.

Also, The Timing For This Event Looks Like Mainly Thursday Night, Between 00 And 12 Utc, Which Could Hamper The Instability A Bit, Especially To The East Of The Apalachicola River.

Therefore, All Interests Are Urged To Stay Tuned For Future Updates From The National Weather Service.

Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Sfc High Pressure With Fair And Seasonably Warm Conditions Will
Begin The Upcoming Weekend, But The Gfs And Ecmwf Are Both
Indicating Unsettled Weather Returning To The Region For Sunday Into Monday.

This Will Be Caused By A Weak Mid-Upper Level Disturbance That Is Expected To Move Into The Cwa From The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

This System Will Likely Be Accompanied By Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms, But It Is Still Too Early To Speculate On The Chances For Any Strong To Severe Storms.

Aviation...

Primarily Vfr Conditions Will Prevail For The Duration Of The Taf.
The Only Exception Could Be A Few Hours Of Mvfr To Ifr Visibilities
In Fog For Kvld.

At This Time, Have Left Mention Of Fog Out Of Other Terminals, However A Few Patches Of Fog Remain Possible Across The
Region Just Before Sunrise.

Any Fog Will Clear Shortly After Sunrise, With Vfr And Southeast Winds Prevailing Wednesday.

Marine...

Southeasterly Winds Will Continue To Gradually Increase During The
Next Couple Of Days, With Cautionary Conditions Expected By
Wednesday Night And Thursday, With A Period Of Small Craft Advisory
Conditions Possible Out Of The South On Thursday Night.

Winds And Seas Will Then Diminish Behind The Cold Front On Friday.

Fire Weather...

Continued Moist Southerly Winds Off The Gulf Of Mexico, And The
Approach Of A Cold Front Will Keep Relative Humidity Above Critical
Thresholds.

Chances Of Rain And Thunderstorms Will Increase On Thursday And Thursday Night.

High Dispersions Are Likely The Next Two Days In Many Of The North Florida Fire Weather Zones.

Hydrology...

The System On Late Thursday And Into Friday Is Still Expected To Be
Progressive With No Significant Flooding Concerns Expected At This
Time.

Storm Total Amounts Are Expected To Range From Around .50" Over The Se Big Bend, To Slightly Over 1" Across Nw Portions Of The Cwa.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 60 84 63 81 64 / 10 0 10 40 60
Panama City 64 80 65 77 62 / 10 0 10 40 70
Dothan 60 86 63 81 58 / 10 0 10 60 70
Albany 60 85 64 82 61 / 10 0 10 50 70
Valdosta 60 85 65 82 65 / 10 0 10 30 60
Cross City 59 84 64 83 66 / 10 10 10 20 60
Apalachicola 64 76 66 76 65 / 10 10 10 30 60

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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