Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 8

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Highlighted By Digging Trough
Over Wrn States With Low At Base Over 4 Corners And A Broad Ridge
Ewd Across Srn Stream.

At Surface, High Pressure Is Centered In Wrn Atlc Off Carolina Coast With Ridging Wwd Across Local Area, Fl Peninsula And Into Gulf Of Mex. Nearest Low Pressure Center Ok/Tx Panhandle With Front Swd Down Tx Into Old Mex. During This Evening Into Tonight, As A Strong H5 Shortwave With 110+ Nnw Winds Dives Ese From Ca Into Az/Nm, Trough Will Continue To Amplify Sewd Across Great Basin Towards 4 Corners By Sunrise. In Response Mid/Upper Ridge Also Amplifies N/Ne With Rising Heights Over Gulf Of Mex And Se Region.

At Surface, Ok/Tx Low Moves Ewd While High Drops Swd In Wrn Atlc Resulting In Local Flow Veering To Se/S Around Wrn Periphery Of This High And Modestly Tighter Gradients And Wind Speeds Into The Late Night Hours.

All This Will Yield Warmer Than Normal Temperatures With Inland
Lows In The Mid To Upper 50s. With Veering Winds, Higher Dew
Points And Very Light Winds, Sufficient Low Level Moisture Exits
For Low Cigs And Fog.This Reflected In Glamp Guidance, And In Height Profiles And Will Be Reflected In Tonights Grids With Increasing Clouds Wrn And Ern Most Counties And In Areas Of Fog Ern Counties And Patchy Fog Wrn Counties.

Would Not Be Surprised To See Locally Dense Fog Across Cwa After 09z.

Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Most Of The Short Term Period Is Expected To Remain Dry As The
Large And Deep Upper Level Trough West Of The Area Should Remain Far Enough To The West Through Wednesday To Keep Showers And Thunderstorms Out Of The Area.

With High Pressure Centered East Of The Area And Low Pressure To The West, Abundant Southerly Flow Will Allow For Plenty Of Return Flow From The Gulf With Above Normal Temperatures And Gradually Increasing Dewpoints.

Highs In The Mid 80s Are Expected Away From The Coast With Lows In The Upper 50s To Around 60. Normals For This Time Of Year Are Around 78 And 50.

Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

A Strong Upper Level Trough Will Approach The Area At The Beginning Of The Period. Some Timing Differences Amongst The Models Remain With The 08/06z Gfs Remaining A Bit Faster Than The 08/00z Ecmwf,

Although The Local Differences Are Somewhat Less Than Previous Runs With The Gfs About 6 Hours Faster With The Frontal Passage Than The Euro. The Upper Level Trough Does Begin To Take On A Bit Of A Negative Tilt As It Approaches The Area In Both Models, And 0-6 Km Deep Layer Shear Increases To 50 Knots Across The Area By Thursday Evening And Overnight With 0-1 Km Shear Around 30 Knots. Dewpoints Are Forecast To Be In The Mid 60s With Sbcape Values Generally Between 500-1000 J/Kg Expected.

With These Factors In Mind, There Is Some Potential For Severe Weather With The Front As It Crosses The Area Thursday Evening And Overnight, Mainly In The Form Of A Squall Line/Qlcs, Especially If The Upper Level Trough Takes On A More Negative Tilt.

Once The Front Clears The Area On Friday, High Pressure Will Build
In Behind It With Drier And Slightly Cooler Conditions.

By Late In The Period, Both The 08/00z Euro And 08/06z Gfs Agree That A Weaker Shortwave Moving Along The Gulf Coast Could Bring A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Back Into The Area On Sunday Or Monday.

Aviation...[Through 18z Tuesday]

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Throughout The Day Into This Evening.

Early Morning Before Daybreak Mvfr Fog Is Likely To Develop With The Highest Chance For Ifr Conditions Possible In The Eastern Terminals. Mvfr Cigs With Brief Ifr Near Sunrise Mainly For Vld.

Gusty Winds Will Continue Today With Winds Calming After Sundown. Tomorrow After Daybreak Winds Will Pick Back Up To Around 10kts.


Prevailing Winds Will Be From The Southeast 15 Knots Or Less At
Least Through Wednesday.

Winds And Seas Will Elevate To At Least Cautionary Levels And Possibly Advisory Levels Wednesday Night And Continue Through Thursday Night As Winds Gradually Veer To The Southwest Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front.

In Wake Of The Front, Winds Will Shift To A Moderate Offshore Flow On Friday.

Fire Weather...

Onshore Flow Will Keep Humidity Values Above Critical Levels
Through Most Of The Week.

High Mixing Heights And Modest Transport Winds Will Keep Dispersion Values Elevated Over The Florida Panhandle Rest Of Today And Tuesday.


The System On Thursday Is Expected To Be Progressive With No
Flooding Issues Expected At This Time.

Most Rainfall Amounts Are Expected To Range From One Half Inch To One Inch.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 57 83 59 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 63 80 64 79 66 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 59 85 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 59 84 61 84 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 57 86 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 57 84 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 20
Apalachicola 62 78 64 77 67 / 0 0 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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