Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 7

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High Pressure Will Remain The Dominant Feature Through Tonight.

With Gradually Increasing Moisture, Guidance Indicates That Some Patchy Fog And/Or Low Clouds Could Occur Late Tonight, Mainly Across Portions Of The Florida Panhandle And Southeast Alabama. This Should Dissipate Quickly After Sunrise.

Low Temperatures Generally In The Middle 50s Are Expected.

Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences Early Monday With Trough Over Wrn States And Weak Ridging Extending Over Ern States.

At Surface, Main Features Are Low Over Tx/Ok Panhandle With Frontal
Boundary Swd Bisecting Tx And A Large Surface Ridge From The Wrn
Atlc Swwd Across Gulf Coastal States With Axis Just To Our N And
Into The Gulf Of Mex. Through The Day, The Trough Will Amplify Sewd
Over Rockies, Desert Sw And Adjacent Old Mex. In Response, Ern
Mid/Upper Ridge With Rising Heights Will Build Over Se Region.

Atlc Surface High Shifts Swd With Ridge Axis Becoming More Wly So Low Level Veers To Se To S Increasing Low Level Moisture/Clouds And Humidity. The Onshore Flow And Building Ridge Will Bring Above Seasonal Temperatures To The Region.

During Tuesday, Wrn Trough Fully Developed With Low Over 4 Corners Early Lifting To W/Cntrl Plains By Sundown. In Response, Ern Ridge Builds Further Over Se Region.

On Wednesday, Low Begins To Lift Newd To Ne Plains And Opens Up Shunting Se Ridge Sewd Towards Wrn Atlc With Increasing Sly Aloft Over Se Region. By Wed Morning, Surface Low Across Mo With Cold Front Ssw Thru Cntrl Tx With Local Surface Ridge Retreating Into Atlc.

Period Marked By Increasing Temps/ Clouds And Humidities And Veering Winds, However Rain Remains To Our West Thru Short Term.

Expect Inland Highs On Monday To Be In The Lower 80s Rising To The Mid 80s Tues And Wed. Lows Mon And Tues Night Will Be In The Mid To Upper 50s. Patchy Fog Is Possible Each Late Night Into The Early Morning Period.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

The Tranquil Short Term Pattern Will Begin To Change During The Late Work Week. However, Inconsistencies Continue Between The Global Models With The Gfs And Canadian Remaining 6-12 Hrs Faster In Developing And Moving Key Features. This Far Out Will Blend Models For Timing.

On Wed Night Into Thurs, Above Trough/Low Lifts Into The Great Lakes With Increasingly Swly Deep Layer Moisture Overspreading Local Region.

By Thurs Night, Trough Across Ern States. Surface Low Lifts Into Oh Valley With Front Swwd Thru Ern Ms And Into Wrn Gulf Moving Ewd To Bisect Our Cwfa Around Sunrise Fri Where Absent Any Push Begins To Slow Down And Then Possibly Stalls. But By Fri Aftn, Upper Features Begins To Lift Newd, And Fronts Crosses W-E With Drier Air Overspreading Region From W-E.

While This System May Be A Potent Severe Weather Producer In The Mid Mississippi River Valley, The Bulk Of The Dynamical Forcing Will Be Shifting Rapidly Through The Ohio Valley And Thus Greatly Limit Our Organized Severe Potential With This System. Still, Some Models Are Showing Impressive H85 Jet So Can Discount Strong To An Isold Severe Storms Thurs Eve Into Fri. Then, Expect High Pressure Building Into Region With Fair Weather Rest Of Period.

Will Go With 30-0% Nw-Se Pop Gradient Wed Night, 60-50% On Thurs, 40% Thurs Night And 20-30% On Fri. Otherwise Nil Pops.

Inland Min Temps Will Commence Wed Night In The Low To Mid 60s, Drop To 55-60 Thurs Night And 45-55 Degrees In Wake Of Front Fri Night Before Rising About 5 Degrees Each Sat And Sun Nights.

Inland Max Temps Will Commence Above Climo, 78 West To 83 East Dropping To Normal Readings, Mid To Upper 70s Fri And Sat And Near 80 On Sun.

Aviation...Through 18z Monday

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail Through Most Of The Period With Winds Mainly Out Of The Southeast Gradually Veering To The South.

A Few Patches Are Low Cigs And/Or Fog Appear Possible Around Dawn On Monday Morning, Mainly Across Portions Of The Florida Panhandle And Southeast Alabama As Well As Kvld.


Current Obs Show Light Ese Winds With 2 Seas.

Prevailing Winds Will Be From The Southeast 15 Knots Or Less Tonight At Least Through Wednesday.

Winds And Seas Will Be A Little Higher Across The Western Waters, Especially Thursday And Thursday Night Where Cautionary Level Conditions Are Expected Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front.

In Wake Of The Front, Expect Moderate Offshore Flow Into Weekend.

Fire Weather...

With Onshore Flow Expected For Much Of The Week, Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected. However, With High Mixing Heights And Modest Transport Winds, Dispersion Values Will Continue To Be Elevated.


No Rainfall Is Anticipated Until At Least Thursday Of The Upcoming
Week. Rivers Will Remain In Recession With The Aucilla Likely
Dropping Below Flood Stage On Sunday Morning.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 55 81 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 61 78 63 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 56 82 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 56 82 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 55 82 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 54 81 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 59 75 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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