Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 28

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Upper Shortwave And Fading Surface Front Will Continue To Affect
The Region Through The Overnight Hours. There Should Be Enough
Lift In Place To Keep Scattered To Numerous Pops Going At Least
Through Late Evening And, To A Lesser Extent, Overnight.

Best Rain Chances Will Continue To Be Over The Northern Counties, Closer To The Large-Scale Forcing.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An Unsettled Pattern Will Prevail Through The Short Term.

Weak Upper Level Troughing Will Slide Eastward On Monday With The Highest Pops Placed Over The Eastern Portion Of The Area.

A Brief Break Is Expected On Monday Night In Between Systems Before The Next Weak Shortwave Affects The Area On Tuesday.

Storms Are Expected To Have Some Diurnal Tendencies With Peak Coverage During The Mid-Afternoon Through Early Evening Hours.

Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated At This Time Due To The Lack Of Sufficient Deep Layer Shear.

Temperatures Will Remain Near Seasonal Averages Through The Period.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Next Sunday]...

The Pattern Will Remain Unsettled For The Next Several Days With A
Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Remainder Of The Week And Possibly Into The Weekend.

Although Some Differences Remain, The 28/00z Ecmwf And 28/06z Gfs Are In Better Agreement With How The Cutoff Upper Level Low Will Evolve Compared To Previous Runs. The Ecmwf And Gfs Ensembles Are Also More Tightly Clustered Compared To Previous Runs.

The Solutions Have Converged To Show An Unseasonably Strong Upper Level Low Along The Mo/Ar Border By Friday Evening. Similar To The Short Term, Storms Are Expected To Have Some Diurnal Tendencies With Peak Coverage During The Mid-Afternoon Through Early Evening Hours.

Temperatures Are Expected To Be Within A Few Degrees Of Average.

Aviation...[Through 18 Utc Monday]

Thunderstorms Will Primarily Impact Northern Terminals Sunday Afternoon. However, Southern Terminals Could See Impacts As Well.

Atmosphere Expected To Remain Rather Disturbed Overnight, Which Should Limit Potential For Ifr Conditions.

Vfr Conditions Should Prevail On Monday.

However, Scattered Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Once Again In The Afternoon.


Southeasterly Or Easterly Flow Will Dominate The Week.

Expect Winds To Remain Below Headline Criteria And Seas To Be Relatively Calm.

By The End Of The Week An Approaching Front May Bring Headline
Conditions To Our Gulf Of Mexico Waters.

Fire Weather...

With Deep Layer Moisture And Elevated Rain Chances On The Horizon For The Next Several Days, No Fire Weather Concerns Are Expected For The Foreseeable Future.


Although A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Exists Through Much Of The Next 7 Days, Widespread Average Rainfall Amounts Are
Generally Only Expected To Be Between 1 And 2 Inches.

Some Locally Higher Amounts Are Likely In Association With The Convection, But Widespread Flooding Problems Are Not Expected At This Time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 61 82 60 83 61 / 40 50 30 50 30
Panama City 66 79 64 81 65 / 40 50 30 40 30
Dothan 63 82 60 84 60 / 70 30 20 40 30
Albany 62 82 61 84 60 / 70 50 30 40 30
Valdosta 62 84 60 86 60 / 50 50 30 50 30
Cross City 62 82 60 84 61 / 30 40 30 50 30
Apalachicola 66 78 64 78 64 / 30 50 30 40 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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