Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 27

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Fairly Uneventful Start To To End Of The Current Week And Beginning
Of The Upcoming Weekend, As Sfc Ridging Remains In Control Over The Cwa And Much Of The Se U.S.

This Is Occurring As Upper Level Energy From The Next Shortwave Rides Over The Top Of The Ridge To Our North, Keeping Our Region On The Dry Side For Now. In Fact, The Dry Conditions Are Shown Very Well In This Evenings 00 Utc Tae Sounding, With Very Meager 0.50" Of Pwat.

However, By Later Tonight, As Some Of The Upper Level Energy Pushes Further To The South And East Rain Chances Will Be Gradually On The Increase Across The Cwa As Some Of This Dry Air Get Evacuated To The East.

However, Until We Get To The Beginning Of Next Week, The Best Forcing And Rain Chances Will Remain Across Northern Portions Of The Region.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Through Monday, The Near Zonal Flow That Had Been Dominating The Upper Levels Will Transition To A Slightly More Amplified Pattern
As A Shortwave Trough Enters And Exits The Southeast.

At The Surface, The Tri-State Region Will Reside On The Southwestern Edge Of High Pressure, Yielding South Easterly Flow.

This Overall Pattern Spells Out A Rather Wet Period For Us, With The Best Chance For Rain Each Day Across Alabama And Georgia, Closer To The More Favorable Synoptic Forcing.

Due To The Fact That The Best Forcing Will Remain Generally North
Of Our Region, It Is Not Likely That We Will See Much More Than
Light To Moderate Rainfall, Resulting In Little More Than Possibly Nuisance Flooding Through The Period. Additionally, The More Favorable Kinematics Will Also Reside North Of Our Region Resulting In Very Low Chances For Severe Thunderstorms.

Expect Near Average Temperatures On Sunday, Falling To Below
Average On Monday When Rainfall Will Be Slightly More Widespread.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Global Models Forecast A Weak East-West Oriented Trough Over
The Deep South Through Wednesday, Placing Our Forecast Area In A
Persistent Zone Of Q-G Forcing And Plentiful Deep Layer Moisture
(With Precip Water Values About 50% Above Climo).

Our Pop Will Be Above Average (Generally In The 30-50% Range), Though There May Be More Of A Diurnal Signal Than Shown In The Ecmwf Mos.

Later In The Week The Models Diverge, With The Ecmwf Developing A Stronger 500mb Low (And Heavier, More Widespread Rain) Over Our Region While The Gfs "Kicks" The Aforementioned Trough Out To The East As A Large Closed Low Develops Over The Upper Midwest.

Aviation [Beginning 06z Saturday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Dominate The Terminals Through Much Of The Upcoming Period, Except For The Possibility Of Some Mvfr Level Cigs/Vis At Tlh, Ecp, And Vld Early Saturday Morning.

Also, As The Next Diffuse Low Pressure System Heads Our Way Later In The Weekend, Did Add Some Vcsh To Dhn And Aby For The End Of The Period.

Marine...

The Next Several Days Will Generally Feature An Easterly To
Southeasterly Flow Regime Which Will Result In Nocturnal Surges
Over Our Gulf Of Mexico Waters Each Night.

For The Most Part, These Surges Are Forecast To Be Weak And Remain Below Cautionary Levels.

However, Small Craft Operators Should Pay Close Attention To The Changing Forecast As Even A Slight Increase Would Result In
Potentially Hazardous Winds.

Fire Weather...

With Deep Layer Moisture And Rain Chances On The Increase During The Next Several Days, No Fire Weather Concerns Are Expected For The Foreseeable Future.

Hydrology...

At This Time, It Appears As Though Widespread Rainfall Amounts
Through Early Next Week Will Range From A Half Of An Inch To An
Inch. This Will Have Little To No Effect On Area Rivers.

Due To The Uncertainty With Respect To The Wet Pattern Forecast Through The Extended Period, Local Rivers And Creeks Will Have To Be Closely Monitored As There Are Varying Solutions As To How Much
Rain May Fall.

Estimates Range From An Additional 1 To 3 Inches By The End Of The Week.

At This Time Significant River Rises Are Not Anticipated Through The End Of Next Week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 83 61 83 61 77 / 10 20 20 20 50
Panama City 79 65 78 64 76 / 10 10 20 30 40
Dothan 82 62 80 62 78 / 20 30 40 40 50
Albany 82 60 80 60 78 / 20 40 40 40 50
Valdosta 83 59 85 61 80 / 20 20 20 30 50
Cross City 84 60 84 60 80 / 10 10 10 20 40
Apalachicola 78 64 76 64 75 / 10 10 20 30 40

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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