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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 26

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 11z Surface Analysis This Morning Shows The Cold Front Has
Progressed To Ne Fl From Around Cedar Key To Crescent Beach.

The Colder, Drier Air Mass Behind It Has Moved In As Shown By The Lows This Morning, Which Were In The Upper 40s In Se Al And Sw Ga.

Cold Air Advection Is Weak And High Pressure Aloft Will Allow Mostly Clear Skies (And Therefore Plenty Of Daytime Heating) However, So Today Wont Be Cooler. Temperatures Are Expected To Warm To The Low To Mid 80s With The Higher Temperatures In The Fl Big Ben Region And Upper 80s Possible Along The Ern Big Bend.

Tonight, Low Clouds Will Move In From Our East, So Radiational
Cooling Over The Eastern Part Of The Forecast Area Will Be
Limited. Minimum Temperatures Tonight Are Expected To Be In The
50s, With Low-Mid 50s To The West And Mid-Upper 50s To The East,
Lows Around 60 Along The Immediate Coast.

Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Its Looking More And More Promising That The First Half Of The
Weekend Will Get Off To A Fair And Warm Start, With Just A Slight
Chance Of A Late Afternoon Shower Or Thunderstorm Across Far
Northwestern Portions Of The Cwa.

This Will Be The Case As The Diffuse Area Of Low Pressure Developing Of To Our West Takes Time To Develop And Work Its Way Eastward.

Rain Chances Will Continue To Gradually Increase As The Weekend Goes On, With The Bulk Of The Unsettled Weather Slated For The Beginning Of The Week.

Storm Total Qpf Is A Bit Tricky To Prognosticate At The Moment, But Weekend Totals Appear To Only Range From .10 To About .50 Inches, Highest To The North. However, These Totals Could Go Up Quite A Bit As We Get Into Next Week, Depending On How The Current System Evolves.

Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

The Combination Of A Trough (Currently Over Southern Ca) Translating Eastward Over The Southeast And Ample Deep Layer Moisture Will Produce Much Above-Average Pops (40-60%) Sunday And Monday.

The Base Of The Very Positively Trough Will Essentially Cut Off Over The Deep South For Much Of The Remainder Of The Work Week As The Westerlies Retreat Far To The North.

There Will Be Enough Deep Layer Moisture, Instability, And Q-G Forcing To Keep The Pop Near To Slightly Above Average (About 30%). The Ecmwf Solution Indicates A Wetter Scenario Than The Gfs, But Our Forecast Is An Average Of The Two, With More Of A Diurnal Signal In The Pop. Temps Will Be Near Climo Values.

Aviation [Through 12z Saturday]...

Vfr Conditions Under Mostly Clear Skies Will Prevail Through Much
Of The Taf.

Winds Will Shift From The North To The East Today As High Pressure Slides East Through The Eastern Part Of The Country.

Later Tonight, Low Ceilings Will Likely Spread From East To West
Across The Region Bringing At Least Mvfr Restrictions To Kvld,
Kaby, And Ktlh.

Marine...

Little Change In Thinking From The Current Forecast, As Conditions
Are Set Up Ideally For Nocturnal East To Southeast Surges Into
Sunday.

These Will Likely Be Capped At Cautionary Levels, As The Overall Duration Will Be Fairly Short.

Light Winds And Low Seas Are Expected For The Remainder Of The Period.

Fire Weather...

Although Winds Will Shift From The North To The East Today, Enough
Dry Air Will Remain Across Our Southeast Alabama Counties To Warrant A Red Flag Warning Due To Long Durations Of Low Relative Humidity.

Erc Values Will Remain Just Slightly Below Critical Levels Across
Florida This Afternoon. Thus, Will Not Extend The Warning Into
Florida Although Critically Dry Conditions Are Anticipated,
Especially Across The Panhandle.

Easterly, Followed By Southerly Flow Over The Next Several Days Will Bring Moisture Levels Back To Above Critical Levels By Tomorrow, And Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected Through Early Next Week.

Hydrology...

Area Rivers Were Below Action Stage Except For Havana On The
Ochlockonee River.

The Best Chance For Widespread Heavy Rain Late This Weekend And Much Of Next Week Will Likely Be North Of Our Forecast Area, But Some Of This Rainfall Could Make It Southward Into Our Northern Basins.

Therefore, We Will Continue To Monitor The Situation Very Closely As The Week Goes On.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 86 59 84 59 83 / 0 0 10 20 30
Panama City 82 62 79 65 78 / 0 0 10 20 30
Dothan 83 57 82 61 81 / 0 0 20 40 40
Albany 83 58 82 58 82 / 0 0 20 30 50
Valdosta 83 59 83 58 82 / 0 0 10 30 30
Cross City 87 61 85 57 84 / 0 0 10 20 20
Apalachicola 79 63 77 64 77 / 0 0 10 20 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.

Al...Red Flag Warning From Noon Today To 7 Pm Cdt This Evening For Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...None.


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