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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 21

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Strong Ridge Of Surface Pressure To The North Will Maintain Modest
Easterly Winds Through The Night, As Weak Impulse Evident On Wv
Imagery Moves Across The Gulf Of Mexico. This Impulse Has Been
Increasing Clouds And Showers Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico
Which Will Overspread Much Of The Fl Peninsula Through The Night.
This Should Bring An Increase In Clouds And A Chance Of A Few Rain Showers Into The Big Bend, Particularly Around The Eastern Bend Counties. Increasing Moisture Will Also Boost Rh And Extent Of Low Clouds Overnight, Keeping Mostly Cloudy Conditions In Place Late Tonight.

Increase In Low Level Moisture And Clouds Should Keep Overnight Lows In The Mid 50s Inland To Around 60 Along The Coast.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...

An Upper Level Short Wave Trough Will Propagate Through An Area That Would Otherwise Have Zonal Flow, Causing An Amplified Trough To Form Over The Sern Conus. With Surface High Pressure Centered Over The Nern Conus And Weaker Gradients Over The Se, This Upper Level Disturbance Will Cause A Surface Low To Form In The Gomex, Along The Coastal Extension Of The Front That Passed Through Friday.

As The System Moves Eastward, There Are Some Slight Chances For Rain Over The Southeastern Big Bend, Particularly On Monday Afternoon, But The Majority Of The Showers Should Stay To Our Southeast.

Although Most Of The Area Will Not See Any Precip From The System, Heavy Cloud Cover Is Expected. Chances For Rain Will Decrease Over Monday Night And No (Active) Weather Is Expected On Tuesday, Along With Clearing Sky Cover.

With The Heavy Cloud Cover And Some Of The Colder Air Mass Still Having Influence, Highs On Monday Will Stay In The 70s. Lows Monday Night Will Be About Normal, In The 50s. With Clouds Clearing
Tuesday, Temperatures Will Warm To The Upper 70s And Low 80s.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A Series Of Shortwave Troughs Will Continue To Propagate Through The Longwave Pattern Which Would Otherwise Be Weak Zonal Flow Aloft. These Disturbances Are Forecast To Develop Two Surface Lows During The Period.

The First Will Affect The Area Wednesday Through Thursday And The Second Will Raise Pops Saturday And Sunday.

For Both Systems, Confidence Is Low And Chances Are Higher To Our North And West.

Temps Will Be Normal For This Time Of Year, With Highs In The 80s. Lows Will Stay In The Mid-Upper 50s And 60s, Slightly Warmer Than Normal.

Aviation [Through 18z Monday]...

Mvfr Ceilings Will Likely Overspread Much Of The Area This Evening/ Early Tonight, With Potential For Some Ifr Conditions Late Tonight And Early Monday Morning.

Although Heating May Allow Cigs To Lift A Bit By Mid To Late Morning, Much Of The Guidance Suggests Mvfr Cigs May Remain In Place For Much Of The Day.

Winds Will Be Gusty Once Again Out Of The East Monday.

Marine...

Low Pressure Developing Out In The Gulf Will Keep Winds Elevated
To Cautionary Levels Through Around Noon Tomorrow.

Winds May Briefly Lower Monday Afternoon, But Likely Rise To Cautionary Levels Again Monday Night And Remain Around 15 To 20 Knots Through Around Noon On Tuesday.

After Winds Weaken On Tuesday, Winds And Seas Are Expected To Stay Lighter Through The Rest Of The Period.

Fire Weather...

Increases In Low Level Moisture Will Keep Rh Above Min Thresholds
For Fire Wx Concerns Through The Early Part Of The Week.

Dispersions Should Increase Tue With Clearing Skies And Gusty
Surface Winds, However.

All In All, Neither Fuels Nor Rh Expected To Support Red Flag Conditions For The Near Future.

Hydrology...

All Rivers Are Below Flood Stage And Are Forecast To Remain Below
Flood Stage Through The Period.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 59 75 55 81 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
Panama City 60 74 60 78 63 / 0 10 10 0 0
Dothan 54 73 53 79 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
Albany 55 73 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 75 52 79 54 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cross City 61 78 53 82 54 / 30 20 10 0 0
Apalachicola 63 74 62 75 64 / 20 10 10 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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