Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 20

Near Term [Through Today]...

Light To Moderate Rain Will Push South And East Of Most Of The
Forecast Area This Morning With The Exception Of Portions Of The
Far Eastern Areas And Southeast Big Bend. Rain May Linger Well
Into The Afternoon Hours Across Portions Of Dixie County, But For
Most Areas Skies Will Clear Out With High Pressure And Drier Air
Advecting Into The Region. Highs Are Expected To Reach The Upper
60s To Lower 70s Across Most Of The Area.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper Flow Will Be Largely Zonal Across The Conus Saturday Night,
With A Low Amplitude Trough Over The Plains States. Confluent Flow
Over The Eastern Seaboard Will Help To Strengthen A Surface Ridge
Centered Over Then Northeastern States.

This High Is Forecast To Top 1040mb By Monday Morning And Will Extend Its Influence All The Way Down The Eastern Seaboard, With East To Northeast Flow Developing Across The Local Area By Early Sunday. As A Shortwave Ejects From The Central U.S. Trough, There May Be Just Enough Lift Atop The Relatively Moist Northeasterly Low-Level Flow To Generate A Few Showers Over The Eastern Zones Late Saturday Night Through Sunday Night. Coverage Should Remain Limited, With Pops Limited To 30 Percent Or Less. The Rain Chances Will Diminish On Monday As Any Remaining Upper Energy Moves Well East Of The Forecast Area.

Temperatures For Sunday And Monday Are Forecast To Gradually
Moderate But Remain Below Normal, With Highs In The Lower To Mid
70s On Sunday And The Mid To Upper 70s On Monday.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Cyclonic Upper Level Flow Will Dominate The Region Through
Thursday With Some Ridging Developing By Friday.

At The Start Of The Period, Surface High Pressure Will Be Nosing Down The Lee Side Of The Appalachians And Keeping Most Of The Area Dry.

Some Isolated Showers Could Work Into Our Southeastern Big Bend Zones Off The Atlantic On Monday. This General Pattern Will Persist Into Tuesday.

The Next Short Wave Of Note Will Pivot Across The Southeast From Wednesday Into Thursday, Accompanied By A Surface Frontal System. The Gfs Remains About 12 Hours Faster Than The Euro With This System.

Chance Pops West And Slight Chance East Will Be Included For Wednesday And Wednesday Night With Some Clearing From Thursday Into Friday.

At This Point, Severe Chances Look Minimal With The Frontal System.

Temps Through This Period Will Be Near Normal By Day (Upper 70s To Lower 80s) And Above Normal At Night (55 To 60).

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

A Clearing Trend Will Continue From West To East Through The Period As An Area Of Rain Moves Away From The Taf Sites.

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail With Northerly Winds.


Northerly Winds Will Remain Elevated Through The Morning In The Wake Of An Exiting Cold Front, With Small Craft Advisory Conditions Continuing.

Conditions Will Improve Slightly This Afternoon, Before Northeast Winds Increase Tonight.

Advisory Conditions Will Be Possible Once Again Tonight Into Midday Sunday.

Moderate Northeast Flow Will Continue Into Early Next Week.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Will Drop Below Critical Levels On
Saturday Across North Florida.

However, Erc Values Remain Low Given Recent Rains, And Thus Red Flag Conditions Are Not Anticipated At This Time.

Some Critically Low Rh Values Are Also Possible Across Portions Of Southeast Alabama, But Durations Are Expected To Be Very Marginal For Red Flag Conditions So Have Held Off On Any Warnings.

The Airmass Will Moisten Enough By Sunday Such That Rh Values Are Expected To Remain About Critical Thresholds Everywhere.


Rainfall Amounts With This Frontal System Are Generally Less Than
A Half Inch And Should Have No Meaningful Impact On Area River

Rainfall With The Next System On Wednesday Also Look To Be On The Light Side.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 72 45 73 56 77 / 40 10 10 20 20
Panama City 71 51 72 58 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
Dothan 71 44 75 54 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 71 44 74 52 75 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 69 46 73 55 74 / 60 10 20 20 20
Cross City 68 52 75 58 79 / 90 20 30 30 20
Apalachicola 69 53 69 59 72 / 50 10 10 20 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 2 Pm Edt This Afternoon For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

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