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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 13

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface Analysis Shows That The Front That Cross The Area On
Friday Has Finally Reached The Northeast Fl Coast And Stretches
Southwest Almost To Tampa Bay. High Pressure Centered Over The Mid Section Of The Nation Is Ridging Southeastward To The Gulf Coast. Upper Level Flow Is Southwesterly And This Is Pulling Some Cirrus Clouds Northward From The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico.

Upstream, Water Vapor Imagery Clearly Shows The Spin Of A Vort Center Moving Across Northern Mexico Just South Of Nm. This Feature Will Reach The Lower Rio Grande Valley Near The South Tx Coast By 12z Sunday.

Meanwhile, A Wave Of Low Pressure Will Develop On The End Of The Cold Front Near The Yucatan Peninsula Later This Morning. This Low Will Be Drawn Northward By The Approaching Vort Lobe And Bring The Front With It. This Warm Front Will Enter Our Marine Area After 06z Sunday And Will Be Approaching The Coast By 12z.

Strengthening Isentropic Ascent Along The 295k Frontal Surface Will Force A Broad Area Of Showers To Rapidly Develop Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Tonight And This Activity Will March Steadily Northward As The Night Progresses.

Pops For The Pre-Dawn Hours Sunday Have Been Bumped Up
To Likely Across The Fl Panhandle Coast And Adjacent Gulf Waters
With Chance Pops Now Inland As Far As Monticello To Lake Seminole To Dothan. Slight Chance Pops Extend Northeast To Albany And Valdosta.

Instability Will Be Quite Limited North Of The Front, So Thunderstorms Are Only Mentioned For The Marine Area And Immediate Coastal Counties From Franklin County West During This Time. Weather Conditions Will Continue To Deteriorate During The Day Sunday As Outlined Below.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Warm, Moist Air Will Continue To Be Advected From The Gulf As An
Upper Level Shortwave Trough Swoops Down Across Texas Into The
Gulf Of Mexico. A Low Level Jet Of About 40 Kt Is Forecast To Develop Along The Fl Panhandle Which Will Cause Increased Vertical Wind Shear Sunday And At Least Some Potential For Severe Thunderstorms.

Severe Storm Development, However, Will Hinge On Whether Or Not We Can Muster Up Enough Instability.

Right Now, Most Guidance Is Suggesting That The Main Lifting Mechanism Will Be The Warm Air Advection From The Front, Which Would Favor The Heavier Rainfall More Than Severe Thunderstorms And Keep The Forecast Area On The Rain-Cooled Side Of The Front For Much Of The Day.

If The Front Can Push Inland Quick Enough And Put Us In The Warm Sector, We May Destabilize Enough To See The Stronger Storms. Otherwise, There Will Have To Be An Elevated Lifting Mechanism For Us To Get Severe Thunderstorms, Which We May Get As The Shortwave Dips Through The Region Sunday Afternoon.

The Spc Day 2 Outlook Has A 5% Probability Of Severe Thunderstorms Across The Fl Panhandle And Wrn Big Bend.

At This Time, We Are More Confident That The Main Threat With This
System Will Be Heavy Rainfall.

See The Hydrology Section Below For Qpf. The Front Is Forecast To Stall, So Rain Chances Continue Through Monday, But Rainfall Is Not Expected To Be As Heavy On Monday As On Sunday.

Highs Sunday Were Tricky And Will Depend Heavily On The Timing Of The System, But Were Kept In The Upper 60s To Low 70s.

Lows Sunday Night Will Be In The Low 60s And Highs Monday Are Forecast To Rise Back To The Low To Mid 80s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Upper Level Disturbance Which Will Begin Impacting Our Cwa Over The Latter Half Of The Weekend With Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms, Will Continue Moving Ne Through The Region On Monday.

In Addition To The 5% Outlooked Area From The Storm Prediction Center (For Possible Strong To Severe Storms), This System May Be A Greater Threat For A Potential Heavy Rainfall Event When All Is Said And Done.

Upper Level Ridging Is Then Poised To Build Back Into The Area For Tuesday Through At Least Thursday, With Unseasonably Warm Temperatures (Highs In The Mid To Upper 80s) For The Middle Of The Week.

The Next Cold Front Is Progged To Approach The Cwa From The Nw On Thursday Or Friday (With The Gfs As The Faster Solution Over The Ecmwf At This Time).

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

Vfr Conditions Will Persist Throughout Most Of The Taf Period With Winds Under 10 Kt Gradually Veering From The North-Northwest To The East.

Ecp Will See A Sea Breeze Out Of The South In The Afternoon.

Clouds Will Begin To Lower And Thicken Toward The End Of The Taf Period With An Mvfr Ceiling And Light Showers Expected At Ecp Before 12z.

Marine...

Winds This Morning Will Be 15 To 20 Knots And Diminish Briefly For
The Afternoon Only To Increase Again After Midnight As A Warm Front
Approaches From The South.

Thunderstorms With High Winds And Heavy Showers Associated With This Warm Front Will Invade The Coastal Waters.

The Worst Part Of The Storm Will Be Sunday With Winds Nearing Advisory Levels Over The Western Offshore Waters.

Chances For Thunderstorms And Rain Linger Through Monday As The Front Stalls.

Fire Weather...

Today Will Be Quite Dry With Minimum Rh Values Dropping To 22-28% Across Most Inland Zones. Forecast Erc Is 37-38 For Bay And Walton Counties, A Bit Surprising Considering How Much Rain Fell In These Areas On Friday Morning.

Durations Of Rh At Or Below 28% Will Be About 2-3 Hours And 4 Hours Are Needed For Red Flag Criteria To Be Met In Fl.

In Southeast Al, We Are Looking At Up To 3 Hours Below 25%, Also Just Shy Of Criteria For That State.

Obviously, We Will Get Close In These Two Areas, But Not Close Enough For Any Warnings.

The Atmosphere Will Rapidly Moisten Overnight With Widespread Heavy Rains Expected On Sunday.

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Anticipated At Any Time Next Week.

Hydrology...

A Warm Front Will Approach From The Gulf Sunday Morning.

Heavy Rainfall Is Expected To Be Around 1.5-2.5" On Sunday Across The Forecast Area, With Locally Heavier Rainfall Totals Up To 5 Inches Possible.

Sharp Rises Can Be Expected On Area Rivers. However, With The Heavier Rains On The Lower Stretches Of The Watersheds, Overall Riverine Flooding Threat Look Minimal.

Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts Indicate Caryville May Reach Its Flood Stage.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 84 54 72 63 84 / 0 30 80 40 30
Panama City 80 60 72 67 77 / 0 50 80 30 30
Dothan 81 55 68 63 84 / 0 30 80 30 30
Albany 81 55 69 63 84 / 0 10 70 40 30
Valdosta 81 53 72 62 84 / 0 20 80 40 30
Cross City 83 59 76 64 82 / 10 40 80 40 30
Apalachicola 78 62 73 66 75 / 0 50 80 30 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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