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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Apr 10

Near Term [Tonight]...

One More Mild And Dry Night Remains In Store With Increasing
Moisture Keeping Overnight Lows In The Lower To Mid 60s With
Possibly Some Patchy Fog Around Sunrise.

Short Term [Thursday Through Saturday]...

Complex Forecast Shaping Up Starting Tomorrow As Impressive
Mid/Upper Level Trough And Associated Surface Cold Front Moves
Across The Central Gulf Coast States. Increasing Onshore Flow Preceding The System Will Boost Low Level Moisture Across The Region.

Primary Potential For Thunderstorms Will Likely Increase Late Thursday Afternoon/Evening From Southeast Al/Wrn Fl Panhandle/ Far Sw Ga Eastward Overnight.

Increasing Moisture Area Wide Could Allow A Few Brief Showers To Form Well Ahead Of The Main System During The Day.

Spc Continues To Bring A Slgt Risk Over Much Of The Area, Mainly After 8pm Edt, Which Seems Justified Given The Degree Of Deep Layer Shear /Sfc-6km Shear Over 50 Kt/ Overspreading A Rather Mild/Moist Airmass. Primary Concern Remains Centered On Degree And Coverage Of Any Severe Thunderstorm Threat With This System. Given The Expected General Linear Nature, Damaging Winds And Perhaps A Tornado Or Two Will Be The Primary Threats, Which Is Not Uncommon With Strong Fronts This Time Of Year.

Much Of The Storm/Severe Magnitude Could Be Tempered After
Dark As Storms Spread East With Loss Of Heating And Increased
Influx Of Air Over The Cooler Apalachee Bay. Regardless, Strong
Shear Will Remain Supportive Of Organized Storms Especially In The
Western And Northwestern Counties /W-Nw Of A Line From Panama City To Albany/ Through The Evening Tomorrow. Supercells And Small
Bowing Segments Remain A Distinct Possibility In These Areas.

With The Significant Shear And Increase In Deep Ascent As Negatively-Tilted Trough Ejects During The Evening, There Is Some Concern To Organize Into A More Substantial Mcs During The Evening. This Is Addressed In Spc Latest Day 2 Outlook With Higher Severe Probabilities. However, There Remains Some Concern How Far South And East The Primary Threat Can Be Sustained Overnight Dependent On Availability Of Surface- Based Instability.

Behind The Frontal System Late This Week, The Weekend Should Start Out Quite Pleasant As High Pressure Builds Into The Region At The Surface. Depending On How Far South Into The Peninsula The Front Stalls, There Could Be A Lingering Slight Chance Of Showers In The Eastern Big Bend To Start The Day Saturday With Little Or No Rain Chances Elsewhere.

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...

Some Disagreement Between The Gfs And Ecmwf With Low Amplitude Trough Ejecting Out Of The Southern Stream Late Sunday Into Monday, With The Ecmwf More Bullish In Rain Chances To Start Next Week.

Appears At Least An Increase In Clouds And Chance Of Showers/ Thunderstorms Deserves Mention Sunday Night Into Monday.

After Which, Return To Warm And Dry Conditions Into The Middle
Part Of The Week.

Overall, Besides A Brief Cool Down Saturday And Sunday Mornings, Highs For Most Of The Period Should Be In The Lower To Mid 80s For Inland Areas And Around 80 On The Coast Each Afternoon.

Aviation [Through 18z Thursday]...

Vfr Prevailing At All Terminals Through 06z.

Low Stratus Below 1000 Ft Agl Will Develop All Terminals By 09z With Visibilities Generally 4-5mi In Fog/Haze.

By 15z Cigs Will Lift To 1500-2000 Ft Agl As Winds Increase To 15kt From The South / Southeast.

Thunderstorms Will Develop After 18z Across The Region And Some Could Be Severe Thursday Afternoon Through Thursday Night.

Marine...

Onshore Winds And Seas Will Pick Up Beginning Tonight And
Continue Into Friday Ahead Of Strong Weather System Moving
Across The Region.

Appears Winds Will Hover Near Advisory Criteria With South Winds Sustained Near 20 Mph, However Will Hold Off On Issuing A Small Craft Advisory For Now.

Once The Front Moves Across The Area By Friday Morning, Winds Will Switch To Offshore And Lighten Through The Day.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidities Are Expected To Remain Above Critical Levels
Through The Period.

Southeasterly Winds Will Continue To Advect Moisture From The Gulf Tonight And Thursday, Keeping Minimum Relative Humidities Above 50 Percent.

An Approaching Front Will Bring Showers And Thunderstorms To The Region Thursday Afternoon And Night.

Friday And Over The Weekend Will Be Slightly Cooler And Drier Behind The Front.

Hydrology...

The System On Late Thursday Into Friday Will Be Progressive With No
Significant Flooding Concerns.

Storm Total Amounts Are Expected To Range From Around .50 Inch Over The Se Big Bend, To Slightly Over 1 Inch Across The Fl Panhandle...Southeast Al And Southwest Ga.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 61 82 67 81 52 / 0 50 70 40 10
Panama City 66 77 66 77 55 / 0 50 80 30 10
Dothan 62 84 61 78 49 / 0 70 80 10 10
Albany 63 84 64 76 49 / 0 70 80 30 10
Valdosta 63 82 68 81 52 / 0 40 70 60 10
Cross City 62 82 68 81 58 / 0 30 60 70 10
Apalachicola 65 76 66 77 55 / 0 40 70 40 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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