Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening over panhandle and big bend Florida. There will be an upper level trough moving into northern Georgia tonight bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight for the northernmost counties of Georgia and Alabama. After midnight showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop offshore. Lows tonight will be seasonal in the lower 70s. Winds will be light and southwesterly.
Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The trough that has been in place across the Southeastern US will
continue to weaken and move eastward as high pressure builds across Southern Florida and westward into Texas. As ridging aloft gradually returns to our region, expect a downward trend in rain chances into the weekend. Still expect 30 to 40 percent rain chances on Friday with moderate southwesterly flow in place, though the departing trough should lead to less rain chances than on Thursday.
By Saturday, ridging continues to slowly build across the region along with an increase in mid level dry air from the south. These two factors combined suggest lower storm coverage on Saturday. Additionally, temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the mid 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. Expect max daily heat indicies to top out in the 100 to 105 degree range as well.
Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
While initially, a typical summertime pattern will be in place across the Southern United States at the start of the period, expect the pattern to rapidly amplify by Monday as a large trough digs southward out of Canada.
Some of the guidance suggests this trough will be strong enough to help push a cold front into and possibly past the forecast area on Tuesday delivering another brief but noticeable cool and dry period to the region through Wednesday. The upper pattern thereafter looks to stagnate with strong ridging building over the Rockies and across the Western North Atlantic keeping the deep trough in place from the Ohio Valley to the Northeastern Gulf. This will yield slightly cooler and less humid conditions by the end of the period with only modest rain chances.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the day with winds from the southwest around 10 kt in the afternoon. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours as convection spreads from the panhandle area into AL/GA counties and into the Big Bend region. There is a possibility of brief and patchy light fog overnight at ABY and VLD.
High pressure will dominate the marine area through the weekend
yielding light southwesterly flow. By Monday, an approaching frontal boundary will result in increasing southwesterly winds and building seas, perhaps approaching cautionary levels by Monday night into Tuesday.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Friday across a large portion of the area away from the immediate coast.
Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 93 73 94 74 / 10 30 10 30 10
Panama City 77 90 76 90 76 / 10 30 10 30 10
Dothan 73 92 73 93 74 / 30 40 20 30 10
Albany 73 93 74 94 74 / 40 40 20 30 10
Valdosta 72 95 72 96 73 / 20 40 20 30 10
Cross City 74 93 72 94 72 / 30 40 10 30 10
Apalachicola 77 90 75 90 75 / 20 30 10 20 10