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Aug 4 NWS Weather Discussion

By: Tallahassee NWS
By: Tallahassee NWS
A storm overtakes Dave Krantz on Day 10 near Paducah, Ky., which forces him to head into show and park the boat on a bank to let the bad weather pass.

A storm overtakes Dave Krantz on Day 10 near Paducah, Ky., which forces him to head into show and park the boat on a bank to let the bad weather pass.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST WITH THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ACROSS SERN AL OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY
...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS FORMING ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR MORE STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN
END. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
EARLY IN THE EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING LATER INTO THE EVENING EAST OF TALLAHASSEE.

HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ENDED UP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS STILL IN EFFECT THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 PM EDT/5 PM CDT DUE TO
THOSE HIGH HEAT INDICES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE OLD RECORD OF 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHERE THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN TALLAHASSEE WAS GREATER THAN (OR EQUAL TO)
85 DEGREES HAS BEEN SHATTERED...AS OF YESTERDAY. THE NEW RECORD IS
NOW 15 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 90S. IF THE FORECAST
STAYS ON TRACK...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY ONLY REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH
107-108 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY REACH 110 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...BUT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE KICKING INLAND
HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 DEGREES WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS. POPS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN THE NRN FL PANHANDLE...50/60 PERCENT ON BOTH
THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
...20/30 PERCENT POPS...WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE IN
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS
SET OFF BY THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL BE INTENSE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAINTAINING A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST,...AND
ANOTHER ONE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...WITH A MEAN RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK...SHARPENING THE PATTERN AND SHIFTING THE RIDGE
WESTWARD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE
UPPER RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY REBUILD A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD
AGAIN. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
FRONT TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY WASH OUT.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH...PROVIDING A CONTINUING LOW LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT QUITE AS HOT
NEXT WEEK...TRENDING DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO. POPS WILL TREND HIGHER FURTHER NORTH...DEPENDING UPON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO AND ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION (THRU 18Z THUR)...
KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY
WINDS IN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. AFTER SUNSET...ALL
AREAS WILL HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z. SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW IN GENERAL WITH THE WINDS TURNING AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSURE THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 77 95 76 96 77 / 30 50 20 50 20
PANAMA CITY 80 92 80 92 80 / 20 50 20 40 20
DOTHAN 77 99 76 96 76 / 20 50 20 40 20
ALBANY 77 97 77 97 77 / 20 40 20 40 20
VALDOSTA 75 96 74 96 76 / 30 40 20 50 20
CROSS CITY 76 93 76 93 77 / 30 50 30 40 20
APALACHICOLA 80 92 79 91 80 / 20 40 20 40 20


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