Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI.
THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND ON INTO NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT AS A LONG AVE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. WHILE THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT PENETRATE MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...IT WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE SRN U.S. RIDGE AND PUSH THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS FURTHER W INTO TX AND NM BY FRI. DON`T START
CELEBRATING YET. ALL THIS REALLY MEANS IS THAT WE WILL NOT BE
RETURNING TO THE INTENSE HEAT WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK INTO EARLIER
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS...TO THE MID 90S ACROSS INLAND N FL AND LOWER 90S AT THE COAST.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OPPRESSIVE WITH DEW POINTS STUCK MAINLY IN THE
MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DAYTIME HEAT INDICES OVER 105. FOR
TODAY...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 110 DEGREES. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS S CENTRAL GA AND THE ERN
AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND...SO THE ADVISORY WILL NOT
INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE N OF THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN DRIFT TO S OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 1000-700 MB FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. TODAY...IT WILL
HAVE AN ELY COMPONENT AND POPS WERE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SEA
BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY FOR A TYPE 2 REGIME (1000-700 MB MEAN VECTOR
WINDS E AT 5-10 KT) AND THE 03/18Z WRF RUN WHICH SHOWED A DECIDED
PREFERENCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WRN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS. WE INCLUDED MENTION OF
ISOLATED T+ IN THIS AREA. ALSO...DUE TO THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THU...WITH THE RIDGE S OF THE AREA...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
VEER TO THE S AND WE WENT VERY CLOSE TO PURE SEA BREEZE CLIMO. FOR
FRI...A FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SWD ACROSS NRN AL AND GA. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH SEA BREEZE TSTMS TO PRODUCE A
FAIRLY EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ON FRI.


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