Tropical Weather Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LOOKING TO THE TROPICS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
AT LEAST ONCE THING CONCERNING TD 4...IT WILL RECURVE BEFORE
REACHING FL OR THE GULF. THE CANADIAN IS NOW THE LEFT OUTLIER
BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FL COAST...WHILE THE 02/12Z EURO
RECURVES THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE GFS IS
IN THE MIDDLE AND PRETTY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE HURRICANE THAT THE
18Z GFS BLEW UP IN THE GULF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS COMPLETELY
DISAPPEARED IN THE 00Z RUN. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
ANY TC THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE WEAK AND
DRIFT WNWWD TOWARD BELIZE BY THIS WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY... THERE ARE
NO OBVIOUS THREATS FROM THE TROPICS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.


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