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Long Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY WORKING ITS WAY EWD INTO ITS BASE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE THIS TROUGH NO LONGER GAINS QUITE THE AMPLITUDE ALONG
THE E COAST THAT EARLIER RUNS SHOWED...IS STILL APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE DEEP S. THIS FRONT SHOULD
PULL UP STATIONARY ONCE IT REACHES THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND NRN
PORTIONS OF GA AND AL ON FRI. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE S OF THE AREA OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY HUMID AIR INTO THE GULF STATES. SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS LAST WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE
DEALING WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WILL SHOW
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...POPS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

LOOKING TO THE TROPICS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
AT LEAST ONCE THING CONCERNING TD 4...IT WILL RECURVE BEFORE
REACHING FL OR THE GULF. THE CANADIAN IS NOW THE LEFT OUTLIER
BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FL COAST...WHILE THE 02/12Z EURO
RECURVES THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE GFS IS
IN THE MIDDLE AND PRETTY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE HURRICANE THAT THE
18Z GFS BLEW UP IN THE GULF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS COMPLETELY
DISAPPEARED IN THE 00Z RUN. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT
ANY TC THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE WEAK AND
DRIFT WNWWD TOWARD BELIZE BY THIS WEEKEND. IN SUMMARY... THERE ARE
NO OBVIOUS THREATS FROM THE TROPICS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.


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