Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...
WELL...IF YOU ARE AN INDIVIDUAL THAT ENJOYS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY... THEN THIS IS YOUR LUCKY DAY...AGAIN. OPPRESSIVE HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG 598DM H5 UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY...AND REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPRESSION TO RAISE
AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. NORMALLY WITH THIS
STRONG A RIDGE...HIGHS NEAR 100 WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...HOWEVER...
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOW OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND HOLD TEMPS BACK JUST A FEW DEGREES. WE SAW THIS ON MONDAY WHEN
THE 00Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO ONLY AROUND
3500 FEET. NO MATTER THOUGH...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING A HARD TIME
DROPPING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY
HOT. HAVE ADDED THE EASTERN ZONES BACK INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY...AS
CURRENT HEAT INDEX GRIDS TO THE EAST OF ALBANY AND TALLAHASSEE MAX
OUT BETWEEN 107 AND 109 (AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALIZED SPOTS REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH
110). TO THE WEST OF ALBANY AND TALLAHASSEE THE GRIDS MAX OUT
BETWEEN 109 AND 112 DEGREES.

AS WAS THE CASE ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
SUPPRESSION TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT NOT COMPLETE
SUPPRESSION. STILL EXPECTING A SCATTERING OF STORMS TO BREAK OUT
AFTER MIDDAY. GOING FOR AROUND 40% COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND ALSO UP INTO SE ALABAMA. FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD ALBANY AND TIFTON HAVE AROUND A 30% CHANCE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS
THESE ZONES WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND ZONES AS WELL. GFS/NAM/WRF ALL SHOWING
A LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF WET-MICROBURST (SFC-600MB THETA-E
DIFFERENCES AROUND 30K) ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. HAVE
ADDED ENHANCED WIND WORDING TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING LAND BREEZES.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ERODE
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME WILL SEE THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. NET RESULT WILL BE TO TREND THE FORECAST
TOWARD ONE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY AUGUST (ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
POPS/ 40-60% COVERAGE). TEMPERATURES MAY COME DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GULF...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...AND SO WILL THE HEAT INDICES. MAY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA (ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY)...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
UNCOMFORTABLE.


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